The Biden - Harris conversation showing up in the poll aggregators

[aikoaiko]

Joe Biden still in the lead, but trending down after peaking.

[IMG][/IMG]

What happens next? Who knows.

[BeyondGeography]

1. The black vote was/is his firewall

It’s the reason why Hillary 2016 was unbeatable. He went from 60-12 in one poll last week to 36-24 v. Harris. Big problem.

[bluewater]

2. The Obama Halo effect might not be enough

for Biden to keep the African American vote against a strong black woman like Senator Harris.

Biden's support amongst black voters is already eroding:

Biden leads among African-Americans, but Harris gains significantly

One of the more interesting facets of the Democratic primary campaign so far has been how Joe Biden, the former vice president to the first black president, has held a lead among black voters, even as two black senators are running.
Biden still leads with 36%, while Kamala Harris comes in with 24%. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders follow with 12% and 9% respectively. Warren and Sanders are about where they were in a combination of our April and May samples.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/h_3a4e0334aea0592739c6caab1aa3046c

[Blue_true]

4. Biden's defense of state's rights relative to busing did him no favors

among Blacks and others. He should have just come out an said that busing was an issue that he ended up on the wrong side of history on, but time has shown that post busing ideas like magnet schools and placement of new schools did more to integrate schools than busing did, and he wishes that he had the vision during the busing debate to push ideas like magnet schools and new school construction.

[Blue_true]

3. I pointed out what you just wrote and got attacked.

Joe needs the Black vote to win the nomination. If that gets fractured for him, he is done. His mangled defense of his position on busing did him no favors among Blacks, IMO. He came out roundly defending state's rights in a situation where it was clear that many states were violating the rights of a part of their citizenry.

[Celerity]

6. +1 and yep, so did I, swarmed even

smdh

[Celerity]

5. +1

I had to laugh at people who pushing that Greenberg tosh that Biden had went UP 18 points with black voters post debate and Harris way down. Greenberg does knob twist small panel real-time recording that is notorious bollocks. He also said Pete had dropped 10 points post debates (which is truly crazy as (unfortunately ), Pete has almost never broken 5 percent with black voters in most, and is at zero or 1% in South Carolina)

Hard to have a negative 5% or negative 10% share of a voting bloc, roflmaooooo

btw, I m not ex post facto bandwagon jumping

I said this well before this CNN poll came out

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287179134#post68

[Skya Rhen]

7. It's no laughing matter that Buttigieg is at a solid 0% with black voters, nationally...

It's quite sad, actually...

[Celerity]

8. he is not at 0% in every poll, and he is above water (39% positive, 11% neg) in favourability w/ PoC

in the latest CNN Poll and others.

He has 3 things going against him, only one is something he can truly work on and one he will improve on with exposure. I do admit that if he doesnt iprove his numbers there, he was no chance.

1 He is negatively impacted by a couple racially divisive incidents to do with the South Bend PD, especially the tragic shooting, but he has taken ownership of it and will surely do whatever is in his power to he move the city forward for a better racial justice outcome

2 He is still very unknown compared to the other members of the top 5, but raised a tonne of money (24.8 million USD for just the last quarter) so will be able to improve and enlarge hos ground opsand also do more adverts.

3 he is gay, (I am both lesbian and part black so can really relate to this subject) and there is unfortunately a deep seeded homophobia within certain elements of my community, especially, older southern evangelical A-A voters. He can go, and is going, into their churches and try and find common ground. It is a tough path.

here is the net positive favourability


http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/07/01/rel8a.-.democrats.and.healthcare.pdf




pre debate polls

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/obzwo5cjei/econTabReport.pdf



vote for




In South Carolina, in the best poll in the state (The Post and Courier Change Research)

he has went from 0% to 6% (he has been really trying hard down there)

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/warren-buttigieg-surge-in-sc-democratic-presidential-poll-as-biden/article_0a351cee-8f77-11e9-a29c-9fe60d10303b.html







need to see the next one to see if he can maintain (post debates)

[Skya Rhen]

9. I didn't say "every poll". I was referring to the good old CNN poll just released...

[Celerity]

10. oh, I meant (sorry I was unclear) to say, yes, he is at 0% in that one, but not all

[SidDithers]

11. Remember that Hillary had the black vote in 2008 too...

until black voters decided that Obama was the real thing, and switched over to him en masse.

Sid

[BeyondGeography]

12. Yes, but that wasn't until after he won Iowa

Black voters curbed their enthusiasm until then. Doesn’t mean it will happen exactly the same way this time but Iowa was always going to be very big for her. If she flops in the first two contests we’re not looking at Obama II.