Can Sanders Win Without Clinton In the Race?

[Gothmog]

Nate has some good analysis https://politicalwire.com/2019/02/21/can-sanders-win-without-clinton-in-the-race/

Nate Silver: “So as Sanders launches his 2020 campaign as a candidate with both formidable strengths and serious challenges, his biggest problem might seem to be that there’s more competition for his base this time around, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and others also competing for the leftmost part of the Democratic electorate. An equally big problem for Sanders, however, is that voters this time around have more alternatives to Hillary Clinton — left, right and center — to choose from.”

“Roughly one-quarter of Sanders’s support in Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2016 came from #NeverHillary voters: people who didn’t vote for Clinton in the 2016 general election and who had no intention of doing so.”

Link to tweet

[GemDigger]

1. 3 people in a race is a hellova lot different than 10,

15 or even 20 people. He is going to have to go about this a whole different way than last time.

[katmondoo]

2. It will be hard

[lindysalsagal]

3. no.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

4. There are many factors at play that all point to the same conclusion.

No. No way.

[comradebillyboy]

5. Well he didn't win with Hillary in the race last time.

He doesn't really look more appealing in her absence either. Especially compared to some of the fresh new faces like Harris, O'Rourke or Klobuchar.

[honest.abe]

6. He didnt win with her in the race.

He just made it interesting. This time around he will have hard time making it past Super Tuesday.

[Garrett78]

7. No. And the field will be much smaller by Super Tuesday.

The last question I asked in the OP of my thread is the most critical: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=322

I suspect many haven't even looked at the primary schedule. After New Hampshire, it's going to get ugly for Sanders.

As I've posted before:

Sanders won't be in a 1-on-1 race, and he won't be running against someone who millions had been conditioned to hate over a period of decades. 2016 was tailor-made for Sanders. The only place for the anti-Clinton crowd to go was Sanders--this is why pointing to his popular vote percentage (43% or whatever it was) in the 2016 Democratic Primary is basically meaningless. Plus, there will be fewer caucuses this time around. It seems to be a popular theory among Sanders supporters that vote-splitting is a binary phenomenon where only the non-Sanders candidates are hurt by vote-splitting. This, of course, is absurd, and I've explained why in posts #21 and #47 in the thread mentioned above.

2nd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire propelled Sanders forward. I don't see him doing as well in those states in 2020, even as they remain 2 of the whitest and most rural states in the US (how wonderful that we give undue influence to a couple of states that don't remotely reflect our electorate). If he does relatively poorly in Iowa and doesn't win New Hampshire, it'll be quite embarrassing for him. So much so that I could see him dropping out before South Carolina, if not before Nevada. Certain states are more critical for some than for others (think Klobuchar and Iowa, or Sanders and New Hampshire or Warren and New Hampshire).

And Super Tuesday, assuming he hasn't already dropped out, will be even worse for him than it was in 2016. He'll lose badly in nearly every contest that takes place on March 3, 2020. Not to mention South Carolina 3 days earlier (where Sanders got Republican-esque support among Black voters in 2016: 14% to Clinton's 86%). I can't help but wonder how many people have actually looked at the primary schedule.

Anyway, he'll find it much tougher to justify sticking around, and I suspect there will be quite a bit of pressure on him to leave the race (including pressure from within his camp).

That there are people who seriously think he's a contender, or even the favorite, is dumbfounding. Reality will provide a swift smack.

[SFnomad]

9. I didn't even think about Super Tuesday

It's why Senator Clinton lost to Senator Obama ... and why BS lost to Secretary Clinton.

If the field shrinks, it could be the deciding factor again. If the field still has a dozen (or more) candidates, it could dilute the Super Tuesday influence.

[Garrett78]

11. There's no way that many will make it that far. Half a dozen tops.

Funding wells will dry up, staff will leave campaigns, and so on. That's what always happens.

[Gothmog]

15. Super Tuesday will not be good for sanders

[SFnomad]

8. Not only did he not win with Secretary Clinton in the race, he really wasn't even close

Secretary Clinton beat him worse than President Obama beat her 8 years earlier. And Obama's win was pretty convincing.

One of two things will happen, either the "Never Clinton" brigade will now split across multiple people, because they have someone else more to their liking, and BS will fall further down in the field. Or ....

The "Never Bernie" group may split among too many people and BS will rise to the top. Now, as other people drop out of the race and there are fewer choices, BS may not get much rise as a second choice, which would mean he'll start out on top and then lose traction as time goes on.

Only time will tell ... and this is starting way too early.

[StevieM]

42. I don't agree that Obama's win in the 2008 primaries was all that decisive.

It was the closest race in the history of the Democratic nominating contest since the people began choosing the candidate.

It was much closer than McGovern over Muskie, Carter over Udall, Carter over Kennedy, Mondale over Hart, Dukakis over Gephardt/Jackson/Gore, Clinton over Tsongas/Brown, Gore over Bradley, Kerry over Edwards, or HRC over Sanders.

The nearest competitor would be Mondale/Hart 1984, and the margin was much more narrow under Obama/Clinton.

[SFnomad]

44. By the end of February, it was pretty clear that Senator Clinton had a very steep hill to climb

to win against Obama. If the Democrats had "winner take all" states, like the Republicans do, it would have been less decided at that point, but the states in the Democratic primaries are all proportional. By the middle of March, it was all but over.

In 2016, Clinton's lead after Super Tuesday was bigger than her deficit ever was against Obama. It was all but over at that point as well. BS's only hope would be that Clinton would get indicted.

[StevieM]

49. While I certainly remember that Sanders and his supporters were waiting for the indictment fairy

to come save them, I would dispute your take on 2008.

It was 2008 when Barack Obama first introduced the argument that PDs be treated as the equivalent of electoral votes. That was not the understanding up until that point. HRC made counterarguments talking about the popular vote and the electoral college map (looking at the primaries through the prism of what the electoral college would produce). There was also talk about how fair it was to treat caucus delegates and primary delegates equally, if you were going to discount SDs. Finally, there was talk about how states like Texas penalized districts that had lower turnout in 2004, and what that said about treating PDs as the equivalent of EVs in the general election.

This was all settled towards the end of the 2008 primaries when it was decided by the SDs that PDs would decide the nomination, although even then they didn't move en masse and put Obama over the top until after all the votes had been cast.

In any event, the important thing to remember is that a precedent was set in 2008 and that is why it was so ridiculous for Bernie to be pretending that he was ever in danger of winning the PDs and still being denied the nomination. That was a talking point he put out in order to sway voters, and win more pledged delegates, which he knew perfectly well would decide the nomination. This phony narrative did enormous damage to HRC in the GE. And sadly, it is a story that Sanders and the media continue to push to this day, thereby giving the GOP underserved and dishonest ammunition against the Democratic Party.

[stopbush]

10. Isn't the CA Primary in March 2020, on Super Tuesday?

No doubt Kamala wins CA and a shitload of deiegates. That will make life hard on everyone else, not just Sanders.

[Garrett78]

12. CA, TX, TN, AL, VA, etc. It won't be a good day for Sanders. If he's even still in the race.

Minnesota also votes that day but they've switched from a caucus to a primary, which means greater and more diverse turnout.

Vermont and its 16 delegates won't save Sanders. Bernie Math doesn't work in the real world.

[Persondem]

13. I hope not. NT

[Gothmog]

14. The Russians helped sanders a great deal by energizing the Neverhillary types

Putin and Russia flooded sites like JPR and other sanders sites with fake news to hurt Clinton https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-fake-news-russia_us_58c34d97e4b0ed71826cdb36

Last June, John Mattes started noticing something coursing like a virus through the Facebook page he helped administer for Bernie Sanders fans in San Diego. People with no apparent ties to California were friending the page and sharing links from unfamiliar sites full of anti-Hillary Clinton propaganda.

The stories they posted weren’t the normal complaints he was used to seeing as the Vermont senator and the former secretary of state fought out the Democratic presidential primary. These stories alleged that Clinton had murdered her political opponents and used body doubles.

Mattes, 66, had been a television reporter and Senate investigator in previous lives. He put his expertise in unmasking fraudsters to work. At first, he suspected that the sites were created by the old Clinton haters from the ‘90s ― what Hillary Clinton had dubbed “the vast right-wing conspiracy.”

But when Mattes started tracking down the sites’ domain registrations, the trail led to Macedonia and Albania. In mid-September, he emailed a few of his private investigator friends with a list of the sites. “Very creepy and i do not think Koch brothers,” he wrote.

At one point, JPR had a half dozen threads on the greatest page of that website pushing the pizzagate story. After being laughed at on DU, the JPR site eventually ban pizzagate stories which were replaced by numerous other stories from Russia including some claiming that Clinton was dying

See also Russia Duped Bernie Fans via Facebook, San Diego Dems Toldhttps://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2017/03/23/russia-duped-bernie-fans-via-facebook-san-diego-dems-told/

Oliver Mitov was dispatched by the Kremlin to get Bernie Sanders fans to vote third-party in the November election, write in the Democratic primary loser for president — or not vote at all.

John Mattes speaks to San Diego Democrats for Equality, the the predominantly gay club in Hillcrest. Photo by Ken Stone
But investigative journalist John Mattes, describing how fake stories on Facebook helped defeat Hillary Clinton, isn’t sure who Mitov is.

“He may be a bot. He may be a person [or four]. He may be living in Macedonia, laughing,” Mattes told a rapt audience of 90 Thursday night in Hillcrest.
But Mitov’s thousands of posts — and similar ones from Albania and elsewhere — duped just enough of the 13 million Sanders supporters to hand the election to Donald Trump and prove Russia could hack American democracy, said the 66-year-old resident of Pacific Beach.
A major Sanders organizer in Southern California himself, Mattes admitted that “we were played.”

Again, Mueller has documented the support that Russia gave to Sanders. I trust Mueller on this.

Again, many voters will want to know why Putin and Russia put some much effort into promoting sanders

[Quixote1818]

16. It took a number of Democrats and Republicans several races before they got the nomination

He has about as good a shot as anyone at this point. He has the money, the national recognition and strong base so he will be one of the top three most likely.

[Garrett78]

19. No, he doesn't. Look at the primary schedule. Look at the dozen states that follow New Hampshire.

I'm sorry, but this talk of him having as good a chance (or better) as anyone is absolutely absurd.

[Quixote1818]

20. Well no one thought Trump had a chance

So, I would be a bit careful with claiming to have all the answers and claiming to know more than Nate Silver who admits Sanders is a top teer candidate. I'm for Warren but realistically Sanders is in much better shape than she is. If Biden doesn't get in I am guessing it will come down to Harris and Sanders.

[Garrett78]

21. Apples and oranges. For starters...

...the Republican base is insane. Secondly, the Republican Party has winner-take-all primaries. We don't.

[Lazy Daisy]

23. I think if Biden doesn't get in

Elizabeth Warren will get the lion's share of his support. I think most of his support would be split between Warren and Harris with Elizabeth getting more than Harris.

[Cha]

33. Well, no one thought about Fucking russia

helping trump, either.

[Gothmog]

17. There are several states where the #NeverHillary vote pushed Bernie Sanders over the top

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

18. #NeverHillary voters were conservative, not super liberal.

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Many thanks for posting that chart

I didn't understand how NeverHillary existed in the first place, so I never bothered to check out who they were.

[betsuni]

22. No way.

No cartoon villain to scare people with.

[Cha]

32. he's got this.. he thinks..

Link to tweet

Bernie: ‘My Opponents’ Want Black, White, Gay, Latino or Women Candidates ‘Regardless of What They Stand For’

After the 2016 election, Sanders hit a similar theme when he told a crowd of supporters “It’s not good enough for somebody to say ‘hey I’m a Latina vote for me’ that is not good enough,” and went on to add “It is not good enough for somebody to say, ‘I’m a woman, vote for me.'”

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211722251

[betsuni]

34. The whole campaign will be based on things that do not exist.

That's not good for anybody. At least the other candidates know what's coming.

[Cha]

35. Exactly, betsuni.. good way to put it.

Oh yeah, they gotta know.. they've seen years of this.

[athena]

64. That is so offensive and sickening.

After benefiting from white male privilege all his life, he co-opts the language of civil rights to argue that he should be treated as if he had faced the same obstacles as a woman or a person of color, that female and minority candidates have nothing more to offer than their minority status, and that they actually benefit from unfair privilege over white males!



How does anybody read this guy’s statements and still continue to support him?

[IluvPitties]

24. I think the competition is much tougher this time.

[highplainsdem]

25. No. But of course he couldn't win against Clinton, either.

[still_one]

26. I think a better question would be can Sanders win without Hillary supporters in the primaries?

[LongtimeAZDem]

27. ZING!

[Gothmog]

30. Good point

There are many real democrats who have long memories. These democrats will not forgive or forget

[Amimnoch]

60. Definitely.

There are long time Democratic Party supporters that every time they hear 45 speak, they blame him.

There are long time Democratic Party supporters that every time they read or watch an unfolding story of a 5-4 supreme court decision, they blame him.

There are long time Democratic Party supporters that every time they see Kellyanne or Sarah Huckabee Sanders spinning 45’s lies, they blame him.

There are long time Democratic Party supporters that every time they see a story about caged children, Nazi’s/white supremists being eqated by our “president” with protesters (and a protester being murdered), they blame him.

There are long time Democratic Party supporters who see this renewed campaign as nothing but another potential spoiler.

I’m not saying it’s at all fair, but it’s real, and if not addressed (if it can even be addressed by this point) it’s a real problem if he does manage to grab the nomination.

[Gothmog]

63. Great post

[CrossingTheRubicon]

47. Ouch!

[fleabiscuit]

52. I will go out on a limb... NO.

[Amimnoch]

59. Mmm hmm.

I’ve got to follow the rules.. I’ve got to follow the rules.. I’ve got to follow the rules.. So, I’ve got nothing more to say, but, you are totally correct there.

[lapucelle]

28. The gloves will be off this time.

The "DNC rigged system" narrative will be impossible to push, given the fact that his representatives debated, negotiated, helped to draft, voted on, ratified, and celebrated the new rules as a victory.

The "Jane's too busy to look" excuse when it comes to the taxes won't work a second time.

There's that matter of the sexual violence, sexual harassment, and predatory culture on his last campaign.

And he'll have to defend his voting record without continually defaulting to the Iraq War vote.

I can't wait for the debates.

[Gothmog]

41. I am glad that the candidates will be vetted this cycle

Vetting is important https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/28/why-bernie-sanders-has-an-uphill-climb-ahead/?utm_term=.1b4f90c2a717

Finally, what happens when the oppo dump on Sanders comes? We have no idea, because it never happened in 2016. Clinton was so terrified of alienating his supporters and seeing them vote for Jill Stein in the general election (or not vote at all) that she tiptoed around him for pretty much the entirety of the primary campaign. That doesn’t mean that he’ll be destroyed when stories about the more colorful aspects of his history start cropping up, but there’s just no way to know.

Which is what we could say about the Sanders candidacy as a whole: There’s no way to know how it’s going to go. But he’s got his work cut out for him.

See also https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-campaign-donald-trump/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-02-20T14%3A52%3A07&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social%C2%A0

2. How will he withstand more scrutiny and more attacks?
One of the secrets to Sanders' success in 2016 was that no one -- most especially Clinton -- thought he had any chance of going anywhere in the race. Clinton largely ignored him for the better part of 2015, allowing some problematic parts of Sanders' record for Democrats -- most notably his voting record on guns -- to go unnoticed. (When the race began to tighten, Clinton gently prodded Sanders on guns and health care.) Sanders, too, largely flew under the radar of investigative reporters for major news outlets who were busy looking into Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others seen as more viable candidates. (That reality clearly benefited Donald Trump in the early days of the campaign, as well.)

Sanders will get no pass -- from either the media or his fellow candidates -- this time around. He is among the frontrunners -- and will be treated as such. His wife's time as president of Burlington College could well come up. And his opponents will do a deep dive into his nearly 30 years of votes as a member of the House and Senate. This is all very normal stuff in a campaign. But not for Sanders.

[Cha]

31. his track record isn't good.

[Power 2 the People]

36. Absolutely!

[Gothmog]

37. I doubt that sanders gets past Super Tuesday

Last edited Wed Mar 13, 2019, 10:25 AM - Edit history (1)

There are far too many real democrats with long memories. We will not forgive or forget

[Garrett78]

38. If he even makes it to Super Tuesday.

There's a possibility that he won't finish in the top 2 in either Iowa or New Hampshire. That would be devastating as we approach the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary.

[Gothmog]

39. South Carolina will not be a good state for sanders

It is very likely that sanders could be held under 15% and frozen out from getting any delegates

[Power 2 the People]

61. Forgive or forget what exactly?

No offense Gothmog but there was no reason for you to put such a divisive comment in this thread. It was uncalled for.

[Gothmog]

62. I hate to break it ot you but a large number of real democrats have strong feelings about sanders

I honestly believe that sanders is not electable and would lose to trump if sanders is the nominee. I based my opinion in part on what happened at the National Convention. I was a delegate to the national convention and I saw sanders and his campaign up close and I will not forget that experience. I was there when the sanders delegates booed Congressman John Lewis. I was warned about this stunt 30 minutes before it happened by the Clinton campaign whip. According to my whip, sanders was asked to stop this event and declined. That incident will be used against sanders in the 2020 primaries.

I was at the Texas delegation breakfast when a group of sanders delegates marched in and demanded that we condemn Clinton and change our votes to sanders.

sanders spoke to the Texas delegation the next morning and his speech was again solely about himself. There was a mini-riot due to his delegates the prior morning and the only thing that sanders talked about was himself. sanders did nothing to deal with the fact that his delegates were out of control and did nothing to try to help Hillary Clinton win the general election.

Finally a group of sanders delegates yelled at my daughter and called her the c-Word because she would not try to get me to change my vote. Again sanders was asked to tell his delegates to behave during the convention and sanders refused

Many democrats do not believe that sanders really tried to help Clinton. Many democrats blame sanders for helping trump win Sanders clearly took a large number of actions that damaged the party and helped trump.

Again, a large number of real Democrats have long memories. We will not forgive or forget. I will support the nominee of the party but I doubt that sanders will be the nominee. I will be working hard to help one of the other candidates be the nominee. You are free to campaign for sanders but do not expect others to ignore their opinions about sanders. I honestly believe that sanders is not electable and would lose to trump if sanders is the nominee

[Gothmog]

67. According to Nate Silver, I am not alone

From Nate Silver. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-and-bernies-support-isnt-just-name-recognition/

Sanders, conversely, has a high floor of support and a lot of enthusiasm behind him, but that’s tempered by having some Democrats — 22 percent in the Iowa poll — who have an unfavorable view of him. If that number holds at 22 percent — and the other 78 percent of Democrats would consider voting for Sanders — he shouldn’t have a lot of problems. Still, 22 percent is high as compared with the scores for candidates such as Biden, Booker and Harris, and Sanders will face a new type of scrutiny for him as one of the frontrunners who is taking fire from all sides, instead of being in a two-candidate race as the underdog against Clinton.

[Gothmog]

58. Bernie's Support Scatters In Big Field

This makes me smile https://politicalwire.com/2019/03/12/bernies-support-scatters-in-big-field/

“Forty-six percent — that’s the percentage of Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 who say that they’ll support him in 2020, according to a new Monmouth University poll.”

“And that’s compared with just 14 percent of Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in the last election who say they’re getting behind Sanders for the upcoming nomination fight.”

“With about half of his previous coalition scattering between other candidates like Joe Biden (15 percent), Kamala Harris (8 percent) and Elizabeth Warren (6 percent), it’s not clear that Sanders will enjoy the same level of support from Democrats four years after his insurgent bid. But, the pollsters note, that assessment assumes that Biden is in the mix — and maintains his expected high levels of backing from Dems after he gets in.”

[Gothmog]

40. It was NeverHillary vote that helped sanders

Link to tweet

[Trenzalore]

43. This isn't a binary choice this time

He lost the binary choice btw.

[Gothmog]

45. Which will hurt sanders

[Trenzalore]

46. Time will tell

Stranger things have happened. I view his support capped at about 20% with someone not named Hillary Clinton is on the ballot but I could be wrong.

He will be well funded. He will have that going for him. He also won't have someone tip toeing about his past like the Clinton campaign was in fear of offending his supporters. We will find out in the coming months what kind of a street fighter Liz Warren is.

[Gothmog]

48. sanders delegates hate everyone and will not play nice

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

50. #NeverHiillary is still alive

Link to tweet

[RDANGELO]

51. It could depend on how the African American vote goes.

If it is split, or he manages to get a good percentage of it himself, he has a chance, but the odds are against it. My hunch is that he will be a top tier finisher in most of the primiaries but not at the top.

[fleabiscuit]

53. They won't split.

[AlexSFCA]

54. without Clinton or Biden, he will be the nominee

without a doubt. I won’t vote for him in the primaries but seeing the exciement of my friends who supported him in 2016 and then got super apolotical means a lot. He will consolidate all of the progressive vote and will get hundreds of thousands of new young voters registered. I am mentaly prepared to support him if he becomes the nominee but I’ll vote for Harris or Brown if he decided to run.

[Blue_Tires]

55. No, next question

[Gothmog]

57. Bernie Sanders has already lost more than half of his 2016 supporters

This is some interesting polling https://theweek.com/speedreads/828447/bernie-sanders-already-lost-more-than-half-2016-supporters

Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) 2016 flame might be fizzling out.

Just like nearly every other 2020 poll out so far, Sanders finds himself in second place in a Monmouth University poll released Monday. The biggest portion of Democrats, 28 percent, say they'd support Vice President Joe Biden for the 2020 nomination should he decide to run. As usual, Sanders comes in second with 25 percent, and his retreating 2016 base could explain why.

[ismnotwasm]

65. I don't think he can win period

He didn’t win with Clinton IN the race.

[MineralMan]

66. Well, he didn't win with her in the race, either.

So, if her name as an opponent gave him some votes, that could be a factor. I just don't know.

Overall, I don't think he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2020. He'll certainly try, though.