Washington Post-Opinion: When the field thins, Biden still may be on top

[Gothmog]

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The presumption that it is only a matter of time before Biden collapses may rest on nothing more than wishful thinking. The data suggest he has a broad base of support.

The RealClearPolitics average shows Biden (34.7) has twice the support that a sinking Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) (17.7) commands. The old CW for Sanders was that he was a front-runner; the new CW is that he’s past his prime. “Bernie Sanders seems to be getting squeezed from two sides,” Chuck Todd explained on Meet the Press. “Joe Biden’s got in, his numbers grew. Bernie Sanders’ got lower. . . . [T]he less you were paying attention the more likely you were a Bernie Sanders supporter. The point being Biden took a bunch of soft supporters.”

With Sanders declining, he risks falling into a distant second with a tightlypacked group of contenders. In the RCP average, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) draws close to 10 points, Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) gets 8 percent and South Bend, Ind, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6.2 — with everyone else below 4 percent. The quartet not only carves up the not-Biden vote, but may work to keep them all of them below the 15 percent threshold, the minimum for winning delegates.

However, even if one or more of this group falters, there is no guarantee someone else can consolidate the not-Biden vote. The Republican Echelon Poll, for example, found that in one-on-one match ups, Biden wins going away against Sanders (61/25), Harris (63/20), Buttigieg (65/17) and Warren (66/19). This is a single poll, a Republican one at that, but at this stage no single candidate seems capable of matching Biden’s appeal.

The one on one match up polling is very telling- in one-on-one match ups, Biden wins going away against Sanders (61/25), Harris (63/20), Buttigieg (65/17) and Warren (66/19)

[CentralMass]

1. Only time will tell.

[George II]

2. Considering that in many polls Biden's number is equal to the top five or six rivals....

....as the field thins it's quite likely he'll be over 50% in many of them.

[Demsrule86]

3. Great poll...I see a great deal of support here in Ohio for Biden...maybe he can bring this state

our of the dark side.

[oasis]

4. Take it to the bank.

[Cha]

5. We're gonna

see what happens.

Interesting..

The presumption that it is only a matter of time before Biden collapses may rest on nothing more than wishful thinking. The data suggest he has a broad base of support.

That would change EVERYTHING if it Does!

[peggysue2]

6. Which is why the nomination is Biden's to lose

Yes, lots of things can happen and it's still early in the game. That being said, Joe Biden's lead is impressive and consistent. Just is. It's also solid across the board demographically which indicates IMHO that the coalition we'll need to win is forming, coalescing. Even this early out.

Democrats want to win; they can taste it. And Joey Biden offers us the opportunity to thoroughly repudiate the Squatter-in-Chief. A lot of pundits and political junkies hate the idea of the electability factor. Turns out the electorate itself does not share that distaste.

[colsohlibgal]

7. No Doubt

But it could easily be someone else who pops along the way, lots of intriguing candidates.

We’ll see. I prefer someone younger but whoever gets it, Biden or someone else, we should all support 100%. Any port in this historic storm.

And if not this time maybe someday soon we can have a female President...finally.

[JI7]

8. Biden is doing well with minority voters.