Poll: Biden, Sanders Tied In Iowa

[highplainsdem]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/poll-biden-sanders-tied-in-iowa

Former Vice President Joe Biden is tied for the lead with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in Iowa, according to a new online survey conducted by the Democratic firm Change Research.

Biden and Sanders both sit at 24% support among likely caucus-goers, according to the survey, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), at 14%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 12%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) at 10%, according to the survey. No other candidate was higher than 5% in the poll.

This survey suggests a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination — and numbers that could be problematic for Biden as he looks to maintain his front-runner status. The former vice president might have a big lead in national polls, but the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire matter the most in terms of how the race will actually shape up since they go first.

A few caveats: Change Research’s online polling methodology isn’t the live-caller phone polling favored by top pollsters, and while the pollster had fairly accurate polling in the 2018 midterms, their track record is relatively limited compared to some longtime pollsters. The survey of only likely voters also might be too tight a measure of who will actually vote this far out from the Iowa caucuses.

-snip-

There haven’t been any other recent polls of Iowa Democrats. An early April Monmouth University poll, conducted before Biden had announced his campaign, found Biden with an 11-point lead over Sanders, while a late March Emerson poll had Biden and Sanders essentially tied.

-snip-

Some good news for Sanders supporters, who had some bad news from another poll earlier today..

[Demsrule86]

1. Online survey...really doubt it.

[NurseJackie]

20. Clicky-clicky! Then click some more...

[W_HAMILTON]

23. LOL

[DownriverDem]

2. I doubt it

You can't trust online polls.

[NurseJackie]

21. I'm inclined to agree with you...

[LongtimeAZDem]

3. Change Research has consitently placed Sanders several points higher than nearly every other poll

So, while it's possible, I'll wait for other sources.

[Gothmog]

4. Online polls are not accurate

[mtnsnake]

25. Right. They're only accurate when they support your favorite candidate.

[SouthernProgressive]

5. Change research is a C rated poll who has called 57% of races correctly. They have a Republican bias

[mobeau69]

9. "Change research is a Democratic firm."

Change was the only pollster to show Andrew Gillum with a lead in the Florida Democratic primary
Change showed Kendra Horn ahead in OK-05 when virtually no one thought she had a chance
Change’s polling showed Steve King and J.D. Scholten in a surprisingly tight race in Iowa.

Our 2018 polls were more accurate than The New York Times/Siena research in races where we both polled, we have a polling bias of less than 1%, and we were the only pollster to correctly predict several key races in the last cycle.
Read our full 2018 accuracy report here.

https://medium.com/change-research/change-research-accuracy-c4ce51a190cb

[SouthernProgressive]

13. I take Nate Silver over that of a Change Research press release.

Change research is a C rated poll who has called 57% of races correctly. They have a Republican bias

[mobeau69]

6. Unless the margin of error is a ridiculous number it does indicate that

"...Biden’s huge national lead appears to be considerably slimmer in both Iowa and New Hampshire with more than six months until the primaries and caucuses — if it exists at all."

I look for things to really tighten up after the debates. We already know old Joe and Bernie like the back of our hands. The others, not so much.

[NYMinute]

7. Change Research always overpolls Sanders by 8-10 points.

They are the Cenk Uygur of the polling world.

[mobeau69]

12. Even so, it's not the runaway lead narrative the Biden camp has been pushing.

Way too early to be spiking the ball.

[Demsrule86]

14. Biden will be the nominee,

[mobeau69]

16. Lake Placid

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. Why even bother with online polls? They are not "random" samples.

[Honeycombe8]

10. Ruh-roh. (but it's an online poll, which favors younger people)

Although unlike the author of that article, I prefer polls that focus on "likely" voters, like this one does. Still, good news for Sanders.

[Demsrule86]

15. Sanders can't carry POC ...at this point or ever in my opinion. He botched a choice

question too...I would never vote for him as a woman in the primary and I have a feeling I am not alone.

[Honeycombe8]

18. "POC"?

Port of call?
Proof of concept?
Person of color?
Purloined of coins?
PM of Canada?
Prussian Officer Class?

[dem4decades]

26. Even i figured it out.

[Honeycombe8]

27. See...

it's a joke. "Joke: a thing that someone says to cause amusement or laughter"

It became apparent to me later, but I didn't connect it at first because the post was about women. Not POC.

[Demsrule86]

28. People of color...an important constiuentcy in the Democratic Party as you know.

[wyldwolf]

11. Many people pinned their hopes on online polls in previous cycles

Maybe they're a bit more accurate this go 'round?

[Scurrilous]

17. I think that poll got JPRed.

[NYMinute]

22. lol

[Partisan D]

19. Completely, silly bull.

"Change Research" isn't exactly Gallup or Quinnipiac! Iowa Democrats are more in the centrist mold of rural Dems. I guarantee you the next mainstream poll has Biden in the lead.

[honest.abe]

24. C+ rated by 538 with a 0.8 Republican bias.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Probably flawed.