Intrade now trading at 72.7 % in favor of Obama winning/Romney down to 27.9%

[Douglas Carpenter]

Last edited Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:44 PM - Edit history (7)

I realize that prediction markets like Intrade are not always right and the election is still a long way from being in the bag - but this is nonetheless a very positive sign.




http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=743475

[charlyvi]

1. Anyone know what their track record is on predicting the winner? n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. derivative prediction markets like Intrade operate on a minute by minute market reaction..

For example a month before Romney picked Ryan - Intrade only speculated about an 8% chance of Ryan being nominated for VP. When it got down to a day or two before Romney picked Ryan and rumors were all over the place - it soared to about 80% to 90%,

In 2008 at this time of the year Intrade - was speculating at about a 64% chance that Obama would win. When the stock market meltdown happened it soared to more than 80%, On the day before the election it was speculating at about 94% to 96% for Obama. So it is a fair estimation of what the market predicts - at any given moment - but can rapidly change the same way stocks, bonds and commodities can rapidly go up or down according to market reaction, frequently fueled by rumors, news, data or herd mentality.

[DFW]

2. Weren't they higher than that recently?

Or am I thinking of some other outfit?

There are so many providers of polling statistics these days, I think flies on an abandoned hot dog are scarcer.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. this is the highest they have been for a long time - here is the link to their chart

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=743474&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

[DFW]

6. OK, thanks

I must have seen another similar site, because one site rated Obama's chances at over 70%

Personally, I rate his chances of winning the election at around 99%.

I rate his chances of winning the counting of the votes, however, at only around 70%.

[jenmito]

5. He's now at 63 to Romney's 37.1! n/t

[jenmito]

7. Obama is now at 63.8 to Romney's 36.5! n/t

[HERVEPA]

8. Just went all in at average of 6.19

Real nice vacation or no vacation next year

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. now 64.7%

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[grantcart]

10. You can update the price in the thread title by editing.

You could update it every day and it would provide an interesting historical record of the day by day moves.

One of the advantages of DU3

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. good idea

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. now 67.2%

[grantcart]

13. on news that Romney loves Snooki, goes to 67.4

[yortsed snacilbuper]

14. 2012 United States Presidential Election Betting Odds!

link

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. Intrade now trading at 67.5% in favor of Obama winning/Romney down to 32.8%

http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=743475

[Douglas Carpenter]

16. Intrade now trading at 69% in favor of Obama winning/Romney down to 31.2%

[TexasCPA]

17. Intrade

I trust Intrade more than polls. Polls tend to be biased toward one candidate or the other. People are spending their money to gamble on Intrade; therefore, they are more likely to set their biases aside.

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. Intrade now trading at 69.5% in favor of Obama winning/Romney down to 30.5%

http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=743475

[Douglas Carpenter]

19. Intrade now trading at 72.7 % in favor of Obama winning/Romney down to 27.9%

http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=743475

[IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ]

20. Intrade simply reflects crowd wisdom

Conventional opinion says that the SS Romney is sinking fast, so not surprising to see his share price falling.