CNN Poll: Who has broader favorability with registered democrats, broken down by gun owner?

[JonLeibowitz]

This is based on the December 23 CNN/ORC poll (1). First of all, why am I ignoring question #14 which directly asks a question about the gun issue? The answer is that I don't trust the data in question #14 at all, as I have mentioned before on DU (see source (5)):

A very suspicious thing was that for question #13 the directive was to read candidate's names in a random order, but not for #14. That makes the results of #14 suspect, don't you think? See sources (2), (3), (4).

So I turn to the favorability numbers which don't have the same methodology errors. I created the following table so you can easily compare favorability amongst registered democrats:



Interesting indeed! Sanders has the numbers you would expect of a candidate tougher on gun control, and by margins that exceed his overall favorability advantage (registered democrats think more of Bernie than Hillary). I found this result from the crosstabs surprising, since the popular narrative is that Bernie is "weak" on guns to democratic voters. But that may be false. Perhaps.

I look forward to constructive discussion about my reasoning and what this means. I will not respond to posters I consider as trolling. This is a serious post meant to raise the petty level of bickering on DU's GDP forum. There has been entirely too much sniping of late.

P.S. Personally I am pro-RKBA so I find Clinton unsatisfactory for other reasons on this issue; but I am not a typical registered dem voter so I left my own feelings out of the discussion.

Sources & Links:

(1): http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/23/cnnpoll2.pdf

(2): http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/04/opinion/04krosnick.html

(3): http://www.centerforpolitics.org/newslet_909cb.html

(4): http://www.yalescientific.org/2008/11/the-mind-and-the-ballot-the-role-of-psychology-in-elections/

(5): http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=942726

[Zynx]

1. Those numbers really aren't materially different.

Also, to the extent this is a phenomenon, Hillary does better with moderate and conservative Democrats, who are more likely to own guns. People vote on a range of issues and the overall ideological spectrum is more important than any one issue.

[JonLeibowitz]

2. I respectfully disagree, they seem different enough to me.

Certainly for gun owners where the difference is so marked that the favorability switches entirely: that is a 10 point swing in relative net favorability.

I do agree, and concede, the overall ideological spectrum is more important and could be a contributing factor. However it can still be instructive to look at specific breakdowns, right?

[firebrand80]

3. Gun ownership doesn't necessarily correlate

with what an individual thinks about gun control.

[JonLeibowitz]

4. Correct. Not necessarily individually. But I highly doubt there is zero correlation overall. n/t