David Shuster: Obama internal polling indicates 9 + point lead in Ohio

[WI_DEM]

I'll believe this before I believe Grevis Marketing Poll:

Item #3 – The Obama campaign, I'm told, did internal polling in Ohio the past two days and found President Obama beating Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State by more than 9 points. For weeks, the Obama campaign has been indicating that Ohio was moving more strongly in their direction. The post-convention bounce Mitt Romney was hoping for didn't materialize nationally, and the GOP convention appears not to have stopped Romney's slide in Ohio.

Ohio, as most political observers know, is a crucial battleground state. It has 18 electoral votes, and since 1944, the Buckeye State has backed the winner in every presidential election except one (Ohio went for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960). There are ways Mitt Romney could still get 270 electoral votes without winning Ohio. Republican PACs that are pulling money out of Ohio and investing it in other states are underscoring that point.

Still, most political analysts will tell you that Romney is in deep trouble — and Obama is flying high.

If Ohio is trending the president's way this strongly, I agree.

http://current.com/groups/news-blog/93892450_shusters-convention-notebook-dems-need-to-stop-flipping-off-karl-rove.htm

[WCGreen]

1. that's great news....

So I won't have to watch all their crappy TV commercials...

[Auggie]

2. Still need a strong turn out and the opportunity to cast ballots ...

Husted is doing everything he can to disrupt voting

[TroyD]

3. Republican PACs are pulling money out of Ohio?

Republican PACs that are pulling money out of Ohio and investing it in other states are underscoring that point.

Isn't that unprecedented? I haven't heard of the Republicans giving up on Ohio before. Seems too good to be true.

[Auggie]

4. PAC money or no PAC money, people still need to actually cast ballots

[Dawgs]

5. Interesting. Last week he said that Rove has pulled out of campaigning in Ohio because it was lost.

Now this. What does Shuster know that the rest of us don't - or who?

[TroyD]

8. Has there been confirmation?

Has it been verified that Karl Rove/Crossroads has actually pulled out of Ohio.

I'm having a hard time believing they would give up on a state that historically is key to Republicans (as John King loves to mention on CNN all the time).

Ohio did lose 2 electoral votes and drop from 20 to 18, but I find it odd that the Republicans would pull out. Wouldn't that become a major story reported on every network that would harm Republican morale?

I think Nate Silver currently gives Obama a 72% chance of winning Ohio.

[kestrel91316]

6. That could prove challenging to steal......

[Auggie]

11. That's my thinking

[cash__whatiwant]

7. Ohio was the first swing state called for Obama in 2008

but I never would think Ohio would be more Democratic leaning than Wisconsin, Colorado, or Virginia this year. Who knew?

[TroyD]

9. Four Ways the Ohio GOP Is Already Stealing the 2012 Election

This was just posted on Datalounge.

http://www.readersupportednews.org/opinion2/278-76/13306-four-ways-the-ohio-gop-is-already-stealing-the-2012-election

[CoffeeCat]

10. Romney's internal polls are probably similar...

Romney and Ryan are all over my state of Iowa. We have only 8 electoral votes. Yes, we are a swing state, but you can tell a lot about what is going on inside the minds of the campaign when you pay attention to their schedules and venues.

Romney and Ryan are paying an inordinate amount of attention to Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa. They seem to be hoping that these smaller states will make up for an Ohio loss. I think they know that Ohio is probably gone. This is probably why they're screwing with the voter hours so much. They know they have to suppress the vote -- big time -- to even have a chance.

No way is Romney going to win Ohio. After he wrote that WSJ editorial about the auto bailout being a horrible idea--he sealed his fate in Ohio. Ohio's unemployment numbers are better than the national average. The economic arguments aren't as powerful there. Plus, everyone knows that Ohio's employment numbers were bolstered by jobs saved because of Obama's auto bailout. Romney will not win there, and I'll be Republican internal polling shows the same thing that the Dem polling does.

Some more good news--despite Romney/Ryan paying attention to Iowa--the state is now slightly leaning Obama. Romney has made huge mistakes here. He dissed win tax credits and his plan would take them away from farmers. Hello, we're in the middle of a drought here, and many farmers will have NO income this year. When your policies take away what little they will get--because they agreed to put wind turbines on their land--that kinda ensures that most farmers will hate you. Romney is an idiot. His kow towing to Big Oil will help seal his fate in Iowa.

Our arch-conservative Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley called Romney a backstabber and a liar.

Things aren't looking so hot for RR here. Obama's last speech in Des Moines drew 10,000+, and Obama will be in Iowa City this week, after the convention. That speech will no doubt, draw (at the very least) 10,000 - 15,000.

[TroyD]

13. Chuck Grassley

Our arch-conservative Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley called Romney a backstabber and a liar.

This needs to get more coverage.

[mgcgulfcoast]

12. 9 sounds about right.

[backscatter712]

14. Excellent! That's beyond theft-range!

My understanding is that the GOP could steal an election and be able to remain plausible if the election was pretty tight, say within 3-4 points. But with a 9 point spread, if the GOP used its dirty tricks to cook an election, nobody would buy it, and it would blow up in their faces.

[flamingdem]

16. Yay!

whew, well almost

[anneboleyn]

15. AWESOME. I still hope for NC, VA, and some others so the president brings it home with room to spare

[quaker bill]

17. I am seeing a victory speech by 10:00 pm.

and only that late to allow the polls to close in Cali first.

[DFW]

18. Looks like David Simas won't be jumping out of any windows this fall after all

He joked that he expected to be tempted to do so after the Republican Convention. I think he didn't even get near the window this time.

[cecilfirefox]

19. If we can bag Ohio is close to a done deal. nt