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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama's better off than he was four years ago
I like this.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep03.html#News
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Obama's better off than he was four years ago (Original Post)
GallopingGhost
Sep 2012
OP
well I would have said "we are" better off electoral college wise but its a great site
grantcart
Sep 2012
#1
grantcart
(53,061 posts)1. well I would have said "we are" better off electoral college wise but its a great site
especailly liked this;
In 2008, Obama won North Carolina by a scant 14,000 votes. Since then. Latino voter registration has grown by 40,000. While most of these voters are conservative, religious voters by nature who ought to be voting Republican, the Republican party's barely disguised dislike for immigrants (e.g., the platform calls for making English the national language), is probably going to deliver most of these new voters to Obama. Obama is expected to get at least 70% of the Latino vote, maybe more, and in a close election, they could put him over the top. Even worse for the Republicans in North Carolina is the future. About 90% of the Latinos under 18 are U.S. citizens and more of them will be voting every year.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)2. I have no doubt that at some point,
the Republican party will have a "reset" (ahem) of their attitude toward Latinos. They will be an increasingly influentual voting bloc in the years ahead.
They'll have to use someone more convincing than Ann Romney. It is difficult for her to keep her disdain toward anyone outside the 1% hidden.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)3. Their reset is Jeb Bush who is married to a naturalized American from Mexico and who speaks Spanish.
It is rather obvious IMO but the Republican establishment is sitting this one out and wants Romney to get a huge electoral college loss so that he cannot mount yet another campaign in 2016.
The President will put together a grand bargain for the deficit and health care will be universal. That will allow Jeb to come back and with faded memories rail against taxes government and champion small business and a more conservative approach to abortion, there by enticing some devout Hispanics.
It isn't their best chance, it is their only chance.
With the age split and the demographic split being so pronounced, if the GOP does not counter in 4 years they will have become a permanent regional power.
On top of this the Ron/Rand Paul wing of the party will be flexing its muscles and all of those ground troups will be getting impatient and want to support a third party option, for that reason it would seem that a Jeb Bush/Rand Paul ticket is almost inevitable.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)4. Bush/Paul; can't wait
That's like liver and spinach on the same plate.
DFW
(54,506 posts)5. So who doesn't speak Spanish these days?
Maybe I should run. I certainly couldn't have less of a clue than Rolls-Ryan, am also married to a foreigner (not naturalized), and speak not only Spanish (lived in Spain once upon a time), but Catalan, French, Dutch, Swedish, German, Russian and Italian.
Oh, yeah--and my name isn't Bush!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)6. Every other Republican running for President.
DFW
(54,506 posts)7. Well, I mean except for them.....