2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGuess Who Wins the Presidency According to School With 100% Prediction History
Western Illinois University, home of the Fighting Leathernecks, has been engaging with political prediction polls for decades. And since 1975, the school has managed to accurately predict the winner of every single Presidential election in a statistic that is likely to make even Nate Silver jealous.
So with the newest installment tallied and in the books, who does Western Illinois University believe will be taking the stage to declare victory the night of November 8th, 2016?
None other than President-Elect Bernie Sanders, with Vice Presidential candidate Martin OMalley right by his side.
The students at the school have predicted that Sanders would defeat Hillary Clinton in 22 out of a possible 26 primary states.
More:
http://www.mediaite.com/print/guess-who-wins-the-presidency-according-to-school-with-100-prediction-history/
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)better start hoping for the demise of HRC...
http://predictwise.com/
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)tecelote
(5,122 posts)Western Illinois University, home of the Fighting Leathernecks, has been engaging with political prediction polls for decades.
Here's another bit of history.
November 4, 2008
Hillary 44%
Obama 22%
But what's real fun is to look at the trajectory:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
For those that don't like the site itself, here is Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates
America doesn't need the pick of the oligarchy and corporate media.
America needs a President of the people, by the people, and for the people.
America for Americans.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)Gothmog
(145,554 posts)You do know that DNC rules call for proportional allocation of delegates and yet the article has Sanders winning 100% of the delegates in states where is not likely to get any delegates such as Texas (you need to get at least 15% to get any delegates).
George II
(67,782 posts)Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)Does any sane person think that this will happen?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)tecelote
(5,122 posts)And since 1975, the school has managed to accurately predict the winner of every single Presidential election...
Where does unrequited love come into this?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)I do not believe in mythology, but I sure do enjoy the telling of the elaborate yarns....who doesn't!?
tecelote
(5,122 posts)'Let me know who they're predicting.
bjobotts
(9,141 posts)mountain grammy
(26,648 posts)happyslug
(14,779 posts)Furthermore, if you are in a state dominated by one party, moderates tend to join that party and moderate it on the local level. Thus further end of the political spectrum tend to join the other party. Thus most liberals (and they are SOME in Mississippi) tend to be Democrats but moderates, who in other states would be Democrats, are members of the GOP in Mississippi.
What this leads in PRIMARIES, that the "Radicals" of the left and right in such states tend to dominate the minority party in such states. Thus while most Mississippians would vote for Hillary over Sanders, most DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED Mississippians will vote for Sanders over HIllary.
Now, the down side of this argument is the Rural Counties along the Mississippi River are overwhelming African American. African Americans tends, at the present time, to support Hillary over Sanders (just like they supported Obama over Hillary in 2008). How this will work out is anyone's guess, but do NOT count Sanders out of willing the DEMOCRATIC Primary in Mississippi.
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I was left scratching my head at these results.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)madokie
(51,076 posts)and I hear a lot of republicCONs say they'll vote for Bernie because he is saying what they want to hear. I've yet to hear anyone say they'll vote for Hillary, in fact when her name comes up all I hear is I don't trust her and damn sure won't vote for her. This is on the ground here in Oklahoma where I'm hearing and seeing this.
Personally I'll vote for our nominee no matter who it is
I hear no more bushes, no more Clinton's and Carson is a Nut and a hearty laugh when tRumps name is mentioned. None of the other clown car occupants even rate a mention around here.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Should probably give one pause.
Unless of course, the results are what you want to hear.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)But that said ... If you read of my posts on polling, you would probably discern that I am big on methodology. In fact, I do not (well, rarely) comment on polling that does not link to the poll ... So yeah! If this had been posted in '08 or '12, sans methodology ... and I had seen it ... I would have raised the lack of methodology.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)You just don't come across as that interested.
You just think it sounds smart to question the methodology this time around because you don't care for the results.
Pretty sure the same methodology was used all three times. I wouldn't think that would change a methodology that has worked all the other times.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I must say ... that must be quite the gift!
I did a bit of research and only came up with there findings, which led me to this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=791205 (See: the South Carolina line ... their model comes up with a 1/3, 2/3 split in favor of Bernie; whereas, the polling has HRC up by 50+ points)
That is reason to be suspect.
That may be true ... but a google search of: "Western Illinois University Mock Election + Methodology"
Resulted in: Nothing of use ... the one promising hit was this:
http://thebernreport.com/bernie-sanders-wins-wius-accurate-mock-election/
And when one clicks on "Read about their methodology and results here", one finds the findings; but, not a word on the methodology.
How hard must one work?
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)I doubt that Sanders will get many if any delegates in Texas and this article has Sanders getting 177 delegates out of 228. Sanders is polling horrible in Texas and there is a chance that Sanders will only break 15% level in a couple of urban districts.
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)Anybody can come up with a model that gives the Dem candidate the win in the GE. The details and supporting numbers can vary widely and these details make this model an outlier to say the least. There is no way the Repub ticket is Bush/Rubio (no way two mainstreamers from the same state are on the ticket). The Libertarian candidate is not getting 10%. IL, MD and PA will be solidly blue. MS, SC and TN will be solidly red. The details in this model are headscratchers to say the least and make the entire model suspect apart from a final prediction of the Dem candidate winning.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and a Priestess named, Madam Rita!
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Has me more than skeptical about the methodology (See: South Carolina)
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Dr. Rick Hardy and Dr. John Hemingway have been leading Mock Presidential Elections since 1975. During that time, students who have participated in these mock elections have chosen the winning party with 100% accuracy and have an astonishing record in selecting presidential winners.
The promo video is on the right side of the page starring Jeb Bush.
Not much history though.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)prayin4rain
(2,065 posts)Orrex
(63,224 posts)Hardly a done deal regardless of their track record.
Once the primary is over, I suspect that they'll update their projection to show Clinton as the next president, and they'll claim that their prognostication streak is unbroken.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)I'll stick with statistical accuracy from 538, thankyouverymuch.
ornotna
(10,807 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)The presidents who win never win the states this college predicts. They've never been accurate.
ornotna
(10,807 posts)http://www.wiu.edu/news/newsrelease.php?release_id=13059
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Dr. Rick Hardy and Dr. John Hemingway have been leading Mock Presidential Elections since 1975. During that time, students who have participated in these mock elections have chosen the winning party with 100% accuracy and have an astonishing record in selecting presidential winners.
ornotna
(10,807 posts)Do you think it was inaccurate as well?
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)ornotna
(10,807 posts)I asked you a question.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)I too think that many Democratic voters will in the end rationalize Bernie as the better more trustworthy candidate and the one that can win in the GE. Hillary camp will claim they have momentum and polls on their side but where the rubber meets the road they have to admit the flaws in the character of their chosen one.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Every poll shows the PEOPLE's support for Sanders is lacking and the PEOPLE really give much more support to Hillary.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)with landlines, registered Dems know more than those who are in the real world. It's good though, just as they are shocked and 'puzzled' as Chuck Todd said about Bernie's amazing success, being out of touch with the people makes it easier to keep on signing up all those new voters for Bernie.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)We saw it in all its glory during the 2012 election.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Which we saw in all its glory for more than a month after she already lost last time.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)You are literally trying to have the argument of a seven year old. I have no desire to banter with a seven year old. IF you find something you'd actually like to discuss, give it a shot, otherwise, just stop. The immaturity is making us all look like fools.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)You are attempting to have the argument of a kindergartner. I have no desire to converse with somebody who quite possibly missed their afternoon nap. IF you have something to discuss, give it a shot. Otherwise just stop, the immaturity is making us all look like fools.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)I post coherent arguments and you go "nuh-uh" and plug your ears.
Just go away.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Who are you to tell me to go away?
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Do you have something worthwhile to say or not?
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)You've yet to say anything useful, but the OP is getting great exposure.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)I love it when OPs that quote absurd articles that are meaningless in support of the candidate with zero chance of winning get more exposure.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)I made my first donation to the Obama campaign on February 10, 2007.
Had Barack Obama not announced that day and decided instead to sit it out, my support and donations would have gone to Hillary Clinton. Their views were so similar that my choice became one of personal necessity rather than anything else. I have familial connections to the Obamas.
Supporting Hillary this year feels like I'm supporting a third term for the best and most liberal president of my lifetime.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)I was FOR Barack Obama.
One stance does not require the other.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)You voted against Hillary whether you like it or not.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Bumper stickers, t-shirts and yard signs show overwhelming support for Bernie. Go look for yourself.
BTW - you can't trust everything you hear on the TV.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Those were the reasons Romney was going to win in 2012!!!!!
tecelote
(5,122 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Much like their candidate.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Got me thinking of voting for Hil now, for sure.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)and Nixon won-How was that possible?
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)even by the people who say they'd vote for her. Polls also show Sanders doing better head-to-head against specific Republicans.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Keep in mind that at this point in 2007 Hillary was also Inevitable. Want to review what happened, and why she's not currently finishing out her second term?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Citation, please
Thank you in advance.
You actually have the numbers backwards:
Why would you make a statement that is demonstrably untrue and why should I ignore the admonition: "Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus" ?
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Action_Patrol
(845 posts)I see nothing anywhere before that.
http://www.wiu.edu/news/newsrelease.php?release_id=12957
Press release from the school only mentions 2007 and getting anything right for the last two elections (that being a school in Illinois picking Obama as winning).
Can you find any other data?
katmille
(213 posts)And Reagan, Clinton, W Bush were incumbents. Not really that unpredictable. I think my son's elementary has as good a record.
George II
(67,782 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Jesus but, you are derpy.
George II
(67,782 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)this place is a hoot.
Response to katmille (Reply #29)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Dem2
(8,168 posts)It will indeed be something to be in awe over if Bernie wins. I predict Hillary will win, but I like Bernie on several issues over Hillary, so it would be quite the election if he could pull it off.
patsimp
(915 posts)and then no one ever mentions the accuracy again.
lame54
(35,321 posts)don't see that at all
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)tecelote
(5,122 posts)Guess which election it was for?
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)Hepburn
(21,054 posts)I do like that ticket and would totally support it!
AzDar
(14,023 posts)more clearly this time:
Hill, don't go away mad...just go away!
Z_California
(650 posts)I mean they picked the party that successfully STOLE the election, but not the party that actually WON the election.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Mnemosyne
(21,363 posts)and clicked again twice and the fourth try it finally said 57, jumped from 50 that I first saw.
Just a weird glitch I noticed.
Oh, interesting info about their predictions.
relayerbob
(6,555 posts)That alone destroys the credibility of this. Additionally, I rather suspect that a run-off between Clinton and Bush would result in much the same result.
Action_Patrol
(845 posts)Surprised so many sites are running with this.
They held their first mock election in 1975. Predicting Carter over Ford in a Government Affairs Class of 400 people.
It doesn't look like there was another mock election until 2007.
http://westerncourier.com/10924/news/students-predict-election-results/
I can't find anything other than the 3 elections from '75, '07 and '11.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)sanders/om or om/sanders. what an awesome progressive ticket, either one!
tecelote
(5,122 posts)America would have hope again.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)red dog 1
(27,849 posts)I'm very doubtful about these Western Illinois University's predictions.
I don't see Jeb Bush getting the Republican nomination; his campaign is in disarray right now
Donald Trump and that idiot Ben Carson are far ahead of all the other GOP contenders.and either one of them has a much better chance of getting the GOP nomination than Bush.
As far as Bernie Sanders goes, I support him and have contributed to his campaign. however, unless the polls change drastically, my guess is that Hillary will likely win the nomination.
If she does become the Democratic nominee, picking Bernie as her running mate would "unite" the Democratic Party.
IMO, If she wins, and picks someone other than Bernie as her running mate, the Democratic Party would be split, and the Republicans would probably win the November 2016 election, regardless of who the GOP nominee is.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MynameisBlarney
(2,979 posts)CanonRay
(14,113 posts)and a Political Science grad, no less. They didn't do the survey when I was there, however, I think it started in 1975.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)TBF
(32,090 posts)I'd love to see a VP from midwest or west to balance the ticket, but O'Malley is young and has been a governor which makes him a very attractive VP candidate.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)yep, that we will.
Lunabell
(6,105 posts)We still have work to do to make sure this is the reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
merrily
(45,251 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Who cares if it's real- if it makes you feel good for a while believe it.
merrily
(45,251 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)Gothmog
(145,554 posts)Under the rules for the Democratic Party, delegates are awarded proportionately. This silly but ignorant poll has Sanders winning 100% of the delegates in most states
The only way that a candidate can win 100% of the delegates in a state is if no other candidate gets 15% either in a district or statewide. The idiots who did this mock election do not understand the rules of the Democratic Primary
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)Gothmog
(145,554 posts)The idiots who conducted this poll think that sanders will get most of the Texas delegates. It is sanders who has to worry about not meeting the 15% threshold
Remember?