"Paul Begala on the Swing Voters Who Will Pick the President" by Paul Begala at the Daily Beast

[applegrove]

Paul Begala on the Swing Voters Who Will Pick the President

by Paul Begala at the Daily Beast

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/07/15/paul-begala-on-the-swing-voters-who-will-pick-the-president.html

"SNIP.................................

But of course not everyone in those closely divided states will make an electoral difference. We can almost guarantee that 48 percent of each state’s voters will go for Obama, and another 48 percent will decide for Romney. And so the whole shootin’ match comes down to around 4 percent of the voters in six states.

I did the math so you won’t have to. Four percent of the presidential vote in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado is 916,643 people. That’s it. The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year—and my beloved Astros sucked last year; they were the worst team in baseball. Put another way, there are about as many people in San Jose as there are swing voters who will decide this election. That’s not even as many people as attended Puerto Rican cockfights in the past year—-although there are obvious similarities.

And, oh, the lengths we will go to reach those magical 916,643. The political parties, the campaigns, the super PACs (one of which, the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action, I advise), will spend in excess of $2 billion—mostly just to reach those precious few. That works out to $2,181.87 per voter—or as Mitt Romney might call it, pocket change.

Who are these people, these few, these proud? Well, pollsters tell us swing voters are mostly women. They are younger—which blows away the myth that the president has the youth vote locked up. Older voters, like older consumers, are just more set in their ways. Young people are more persuadable about nearly everything. Many swing voters have a high-school diploma but no college degree. And a chunk of them are Hispanic.

......................................SNIP"

[Iggy]

1. The Problem Is

IF indeed Rmoney is soooo utterly hideous, and Obama soooo superior... WHY is this a close
race??

why is Obama not at least ten points ahead of Willard in blue/swing states??

[Wounded Bear]

2. "why is Obama not at least ten points ahead of Willard in blue/swing states??"

Because if he was, they wouldn't be swing states.

[Iggy]

4. Weak Dodge

OK, so why is Obama not ahead of Rmoney by 10 points in blue states??

[momsadem]

3. A little more complex than that...

I live in NV. Our state seems up for grabs. I would say that Ohio, MO, MI and maybe even one or two others are swing states.
I am a white, male, Christian, business-owning, veteran, family man. The PERFECT Republican demographic!
I'm voting for Obama based on the policy positions regarding Gramm-Leach-Bliley, eliminating the loppholes that facilitate the "Double Irish" and "Dutch Sandwich" methods of offshoring corporate income, the stance on the current tax breaks given for shipping jobs overseas and the actions of the GOP of late.
My first four presidential votes were Republican but that party has gone off the reservation in recent years. They have become so extreme, there is no way I can vote for Romney.