'Three Questions After the June Jobs Report' -- Nate Silver's interesting take

[ailsagirl]

By NATE SILVER
Payroll jobs increased by 80,000 in June, according to the government’s survey of employers, marking the third consecutive month of tepid job growth. After revisions, job growth was 68,000 in April and 77,000 in May.

There are three economic and political questions that I think are most pertinent in the wake of the news...

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1. Will the Federal Reserve act?

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2. Is this the new normal?

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3. Is this a political ‘game changer?'

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Please read whole article-- it's fairly long with a lot of info in it

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/06/three-questions-after-the-june-jobs-report/

[ailsagirl]

1. Kick

Important we take these things into account. I will keep this kicked

[Cary]

2. There is no normal

The very first thing I learned on my way to my bachelors in economics was that there was only one immutable rule, and that was: everything will change.

President Obama will win and at that point I am hoping he will lead the charge in earnest against the Republicans and their obstructionism.

But anyone who tells you anything with any certainty is either a liar or a fool.

[progressivebydesign]

3. I can't understand why the media wasn't as aroused when Bush lost jobs every single month.... n/t

[ailsagirl]

4. You're kidding, right?

For some reason, Bush could screw up to the nth degree, yet everything was always rosy. What a crock

[southernyankeebelle]

9. What told me what kind of a man Bush was when he told everyone after to go shopping. Remember

that? Go shopping. I thought this guy doesn't have a clue. I mean here he is sending soldiers to fight a war and will be killed and he is telling us to go shopping. I knew right there this country was in deep trouble. Where was the call to do something higher then themselves.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. glad you posted this. I like following Nate's thinking as we approach the big day.

[ailsagirl]

6. Thanks

Since I was the one (I think) to first post the bad news about things staying at 8.2%, I was glad to read what Nate had to say. Obama's not giving up, neither are we!!

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. I think the article's claim ...

that most analysts expected a jobs creation rebound in the area of 150,000 is disingenuous, at best, and more evidence of the media throwing sh!t into the game.

How could they come to that number when middle/working class consumer demand remains muted.

I would have far more confidence in disappointment of these "most analysts'" prognostications, if they would put them out there BEFORE the jobs reports come out.

But that said, with the passage of the highways bill, we will see a bump in hiring, as the contractors ramp up for the projects they have been delaying.

[ailsagirl]

10. I did check around (on Thursday) before these job numbers came out

and the consensus seemed to be it would probably be about the same as May's numbers. So I wasn't too surprised but, obviously, I was disappointed. I don't have the links in front of me but if you want me to find them, let me know.

And what you said about the highways bill-- I know we'll see a bump.

[ailsagirl]

8. Kick

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. Bookmarking and Face-Booking, because this is important, thanks to Nate!

[ailsagirl]

12. Kick

[Paka]

13. Another great post, ailsagirl.

Nate Silver always makes for a good read.

[ailsagirl]

14. Many thanks, Paka

[high density]

15. What does the Fed have left they can do?

Rates are so low they're already effectively paying banks to borrow the money. For consumers sky high interest rates remain on credit cards while rates on savings accounts approach zero.

[demwing]

16. From the article:

"The Federal Open Market Committee meets next on July 31 and Aug. 1, at which point it could consider additional quantitative easing programs or other stimulative actions."