2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Bernie Sanders Will Become the Democratic Nominee and Defeat Any Republican in 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/why-bernie-sanders-will-become-the-democratic-nominee_b_7685364.htmlJ_J_
(1,213 posts)I couldn't actually get it to load but I figured with a title like that it has to be good....
R. Daneel Olivaw
(12,606 posts)In 2008, Hillary Clinton finished third in Iowabehind Obama and John Edwards and eventually lost the Democratic nomination to the first African-American elected as president. This eventuality was once described as "the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen" by Bill Clinton, when the former president was asked about Obama's record and chances of winning the presidency. Even Hillary Clinton's "It's 3:00 am" advertisement, described by Harvard Professor of Sociology Orlando Patterson as having a "racist sub-message," couldn't prevent history from taking place and a more progressive electorate from deciding their own destiny at the ballot box.
J_J_
(1,213 posts)so strange Hillary supporters claim that she can win the general. Besides real Democrats having a problem with her, Republicans hate her.
I don't think her icon with the big red arrow pointing to the right is really going to bring them in.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)and the swiftboating will be without precedent
KoKo
(84,711 posts)As for the Electoral College and Bernie Sanders, a closer look at the numbers and the electoral map shows that Vermont's senator is indeed a pragmatic choice (no email scandals, voted consistently on progressive issues before they were popular, energized a base of Democratic supporters) for Democratic nominee. Also, Sanders has a better chance than Hillary of defeating Jeb Bush or any other GOP challenger. According to a POLITICO piece titled The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict, Democrats across the nation simply have to vote in a similar manner to 2012 for Sanders to win:
That leaves just seven super-swingy states: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which backed Bush and Obama twice each, and Iowa and New Hampshire, which have voted Democratic in three of the last four elections.
For the Democrats, a victory in 2016 entails zero expansion of the blue map, merely the limiting of blue-to-red transformations. Assuming the lean, likely, and safe Democratic states remain loyal to the party, the nominee need only win 23 of the 85 toss-up electoral votes. And if a lean Democratic state such as Wisconsin turns red, it is relatively easy to replace those votes with one or two toss-ups.
On the other hand, Republicans must hold all their usual states plus find a way to stitch together an additional 64 electoral votes, or 79 if they can't hold North Carolina. To do this, the GOP candidate will have to come close to sweeping the toss-ups under most scenarios--a difficult task...
What gives Hillary Clinton a better chance of winning states like Ohio (Brookings has a study titled Did Manufacturing Job Losses Hold the Midwest Back) than Bernie Sanders? Unlike Sanders, Hillary was for the TPP and voters weary of China and Vietnam taking jobs away from Americans will think twice about Hillary Clinton.
Also, communities around the country hit by the repercussions of American counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where close to 7,000 Americans died, over 50,000 wounded in combat, and over 900,000 injured, will think twice about voting for Hillary Clinton after her Iraq War vote. Bernie Sanders, however, was on the right side of history with Iraq and Afghanistan, he's always against horrible trade agreements, supported gay marriage and marijuana legalization (Hillary was against even the decriminalization of marijuana not long ago) and championed a range of other issues.
In other words, the electoral map shows that Bernie Sanders is not only a realistic candidate for president, but his record on a number of issues speaks to a wide range of voters. If Democrats simply vote based on their value system (considering demographic shifts favor Democrats), Bernie Sanders can easily win the presidency. If they nominate Hillary Clinton out of despair, thinking this is still 1999, then email scandals and an Iraq War vote could mitigate any advantages a Democratic challenger has over Jeb Bush or another Republican.
These aren't the days where Karl Rove can tap into a well of homophobia (Hillary was also against gay marriage at the time, stating "I don't support gay marriages, but I do support extending benefits to couples..." and gain millions of GOP votes by pushing for an amendment banning gay marriage. While "Moral Values" once carried GOP candidates into the White House, our outlook on social issues has changed as a nation. Americans care more about wealth inequality nowadays than marching with Mike Huckabee against the recent Supreme Court decision on gay marriage.
hack89
(39,171 posts)that is his first true test.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)....his campaign is in deep trouble.
I can see him with an outside chance of winning in New Hampshire, but other than Vermont I can't see him winning any other primary.
J_J_
(1,213 posts)When The same corporate media that lied about the war in Iraq (and has lied about everything since) is on your side....well, it doesn't look like you are on the side of truth.
The corporate media has become obsolete.
Millenials and Generation X shut that BS off a long time ago.
Polls can be fixed.
I highly doubt that most young people are being called, more likely a hand picked list of phone numbers.
Judging from the desperate attempts from Hillary supporters to attack Bernie with silliness, it is Hillary's campaign that is in deep trouble.
Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)I sure as shit haven't. I have never been polled in my life and have been registered as a Democrat and Independent throughout my life since I was 18. Anecdotal, but I don't know ANYONE of my friends that have been polled either (I am 40).
These 'polls' are small, so very small segments of the populace. I have no doubt most of them are heavily massaged into fitting whatever the blowhards wish to spin.
Keep up the good fight! Even at a place called Democratic Underground there is opposition to a real progressive - how about that?
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)On the other hand, I've only been called to jury duty once in my life.
Being registered to vote is usually what gets you jury duty, but it has nothing to do with being polled. That generally takes having a landline, and maybe being in the right demographic.
artislife
(9,497 posts)But I don't think they have the structure in place to actually poll well. They are using landlines and likely voters.
The closest thing I could find out about new voters each year in a short search was this article about the 2008 to 2012 numbers. In it some interesting items about how high the college vote is.
http://www.civicyouth.org/you-ask-we-answer-16-8-million-new-youth-eligible-to-vote-in-2012/
here are approximately 46 million youth eligible to vote in 2012.*
The number of young people who are newly eligible to vote since 2008 is about 16.8 million**
n8dogg83
(248 posts)from what i have seen so far, Bernie's campaign is attracting massive numbers of very young people. People that dont typically answer their cell phones when an anonymous pollster calls, people that will be out registering their friends to vote. I just dont sense that same level of enthusiasm among young voters for Hillary.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)The irony is deep in this one
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I doubt he'll win either, but it is very possible he can win both of those states and lose every single other one. Let's just say the demographics of Iowa and NH make up the only areas he had any strength in. Once you get to states with a more varied demographical background he does considerably poorer.