NBC Marist says Bernie is surging! IA: Clinton 49, Sanders 25; NH: Clinton 42, Bernie 32!! Wins GE

[ram2008]

New polls out from NBC/Marist!

Bernie is closing the gap in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Iowa: Clinton 49, Sanders 25, Biden 10, O'Malley 3

NH: Clinton 42, Sanders 32, Biden 12, O'Malley 3

http://www.view-pdf.com/ViewPDFFile.aspx?file=http://www.htmlpublish.com/newTestDocStorage/DocStorage/338db9aa727f427ab536da0129eb51f5/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll%20Iowa%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_July%202015.pdf

Also new CNN general election poll shows he's within 1 point of Bush!
(48-47)

Beats Walker!
(48-43)

And of course beats Trump handily

(59-39)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2179399-cnn-orc-poll-2016-election-9-a-m-july-26-2015.html

[Metric System]

1. It would be imbecilic to think Hillary will win every state. Let Bernie have NH. Hillary won it in

2008 and, as we know, it doesn't guarantee the nomination.

[Adrahil]

2. Surge?

The poll numbers for both states are right in the meaty middle of polls from the last month. I suspect Bernie will still gather support, but I'm not seeing a surge over the last month in those states. He could still win one or both, but i think the latest polls are consistent with a leveling of support.

[ram2008]

3. Yeah I would say surge

Look at the RCP trendlines, little bit of leveling in NH, but need one more data point to be sure. Compared to the last NBC/Marist poll he's increased his support and in the CNN one he's winning against Walker in a GE. Don't think that's happened before. I have yet to see two polls by the same organization that have shown Bernie not increasing his support or staying the same in the more recent ones. Also his net favorability is increasing while other candidates are continuing to drop.

Iowa: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

NH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

National: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

[Adrahil]

4. The problem with your analysis...

Is that NBC/Marist hasn't been done in those states since February.... And the state polls in general are done a fairly low frequency. Look at the aggregated polls over the last month, and you can see a definite leveling. We'll have to see how it shake out, of course.

But this poll does show sanders winning some general election match-ups for the forst time, though still a bit behind Clinton's numbers. That is worth noticing, IMO, though it's not terribly meaningful until more polls show that.

[ellisonz]

5. Biden isn't in the race unless I missed headlines. n/t

[Ken Burch]

6. That does end the "Only HRC is electable" meme once and for all. n/t.

[vadermike]

7. Enthusiasm gap

What of the enthusiasm gap on the Dem side? Whether Hillary or Bernie we need to increase it otherwise we will be in trouble ! The repukrs always vote no matter what !!