A grim warning Hillary supporters can’t ignore: The fundamentals of her campaign are looking weak

[marmar]

from Salon.com:


A grim warning Hillary supporters can’t ignore: The fundamentals of her campaign are looking weak
General election match-ups this early are irrelevant. The real worry is in her sinking favorability ratings

JIM NEWELL



.....(snip).....

This does not mean that the entirety of Quinnipiac’s results can be dismissed, though. Look down and you’ll see something ugly for Clinton: her fundamentals — favorability rating, trustworthiness, strength as a leader etc. — are moving very much in the wrong direction.

“Hillary Clinton’s numbers have dropped among voters in the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. She has lost ground in the horserace and on key questions about her honesty and leadership,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “On being a strong leader, a key metric in presidential campaigns, she has dropped four to 10 points depending on the state and she is barely above 50 percent in each of the three states.”

Not many candidates’ favorability ratings are all that great in this poll (did the pollsters interrupt a lot of family dinners after long days at work?) but Clinton’s have fallen into some gruesome territory, at least in these three states. Hold your breath: Save for Virginia, Clinton’s net favorables are scraping the infamously bleak deep-water ocean bed known as Trump’s Abyss:

Clinton gets markedly negative favorability ratings in each state, 35 – 56 percent in Colorado, 33 – 56 percent in Iowa and 41 – 50 percent in Virginia.

The worst favorability ratings for any Democrat or Republican in the presidential field belong to Trump: 31 – 58 percent in Colorado, 32 – 57 percent in Iowa and 32 – 61 percent in Virginia.

These numbers seem worse than normal and we shouldn’t take near 2-to-1 unfavorables as the definitive picture of the public’s receptiveness to Hillary Clinton. ...................(more)

http://www.salon.com/2015/07/22/a_grim_warning_hillary_supporters_cant_ignore_the_fundamentals_of_her_campaign_are_looking_weak/

[DCBob]

1. Getting alot of mileage out that skewed poll.

[onehandle]

2. Salon is trying to keep its head above water and has found its target.

The Only place I see Salon linked to these days is here.

[sabrina 1]

21. What does Salon's readership have to do with the content of the OP?

Clearly once people hear Sander' Progressive Message, and see he has the record to back it up, it's only to be expected that they are going to like him.

Because all polls show that the majority of the people support Progressive policies, though we have been led to believe for years that this is not the case. NOW we know we have been badly misled.

This is great news for Democrats.

To be honest I don't understand why this is not good news for all Democrats. It means we don't HAVE to 'reach across the aisle' or run on a 'centrist' message which has been terrible for our party and for the people.

[HooptieWagon]

4. Considering how well known she is...

those numbers really can't go up. They can easily go down, if she puts her foot in her mouth, or buys so many ads they become annoying.

[OhZone]

5. La de da -

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. From your link she's 10-11 in the General Election. The closest Repug is 5-1

As to the current poll that is the source of much consternation I offer this:


Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 12h12 hours ago
People forget that the better data-driven sites are often the ones saying NOT to pay attention to (early, cherry-picked, noisy) polls.

[wyldwolf]

6. Another day, another anti-Hillary piece from Salon.

[Doctor_J]

8. Pssh. Fawning media and billions of dollars. Those are the fundamentals

I don't think she's worried

[Adrahil]

19. "Fawning media" LOL nt

[jonno99]

28. Make the the "Fawning Media Elite" - and it's not so funny...nt

[msongs]

9. oh no, let's flee to the ones who are getting less than 10% in the polls lol nt

[SunSeeker]

10. LOL

[London Lover Man]

11. I live here in Colorado.. the polls are about right..

Clinton isn't very well-liked, and what's more - more people are starting to learn and like Bernie - both urban and rural areas like what they are hearing about Bernie Sanders, and it will continue to pick up. The Republicans aren't going anywhere here either - so the real winner would be Bernie here in the great state of Colorado!

[stevenleser]

15. Except that isn't what's happening. See my #15 below. Bernies unfavorables are a real issue. nt

[London Lover Man]

17. Do you live in Colorado? I do. And I have the pulse and know the people around my state...

I also belong on several Colorado-based forums, and hearing the same.

The polls, in this case, is correct, undersampled, but correct.

[stevenleser]

18. I lived there for several years and still have lots of friends there.

Bernies unfavorables are worse than Hillary's.

[sabrina 1]

22. I have lots of friends there too, family members who lived there for years

and there is huge excitement building over Bernie's candidacy.

There is still a way to go before everyone in the state even knows who he is, but he has an army of volunteers there who are fixing that 'name recognition problem'.

Even WITHOUT the name recognition Hillary has, he is already firing people up to support Progressives who are not trying to avoid delivering a real Progressive message as opposed to those delivering the now reviled 'centrist' message, a real loser for Democrats.

[brooklynite]

12. 24 hours later and the Q Poll appears to be an outlier...

Latest PPP poll puts her ahead of the Republican field...as do the ones before the Q Poll

[jonno99]

30. Or the leading edge...nt

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. There it is ...

evidence of the corrupt polling system ... bought and paid for by the Clinton Foundation with money from wall street and the oligarchs!

[Babel_17]

13. As campaigns progress, low information voters start counting for more

Low information voters have had a groove hammered into their brain that just repeats a few simple negative talking points about the Clintons. It won't take many high profile attack ads, or even just columnists latching onto their favorite chew toy, for that to become a fundamental issue for the HRC campaign to have to deal with.

[ibegurpard]

16. And the third way will blame the left for that

Despite the fact they're pushing a candidate that generates very little enthusiasm across the entire spectrum. Her numbers correlate to her name recognition. Her lackluster record does not encourage the support she will need to confront the bogus attacks on the bullshit stuff.

[stevenleser]

20. Except that Bernies unfavorables are worse than Hillary's nt

[sabrina 1]

24. What is becoming a problem for Hillary now is her actual RECORD

on issues. Now that we have a candidate whose record on Progressive issues is close to flawless and voters are finally hearing and seeing someone who actuall represents their views on issues, it becomes more and more clear that Hillary has never been supportive of the progressive issues that matter to people, across the political spectrum.

And they more those comparisons are made, the more excited people are becoming about a candidate who is FINALLY talking boldly about what matters to them.

[stevenleser]

14. A selective reading of stats. Bernie's favorables are more concerning than Hillary's.

Bernie's unfavorable rating is rising fast as his name recognition is rising. His negatives are higher than Clinton's among Democrats and rising fast. This was before BLM. I suspect they are even higher now. Of course he will have very high unfavorables among Republicans as does Clinton.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanderss-limited-appeal-even-to-democrats/

Overall, 82 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton, while 15 percent are unfavorable (a scant 3 percent have no opinion). Sanders's favorable rating is 36 percent among Democrats, with even more offering no opinion of him. Nearly a quarter -- 23 percent -- give Sanders negative marks. That's notable because, despite being less well-known than Clinton, his negatives are eight percentage points higher than Clinton.

[sabrina 1]

26. That reflects only people who are registered Dems AND have a landline

And in there is the key to Sanders climbing numbers while Hillary's are falling.

Even that poll is great news for Progressives, finally Sanders is shattering the notion that a Progressive message cannot win elections. We know now that this is a Left Leaning country on the issues.

And people are finally getting to hear the message they have been wanting to hear.

Which is why Bernie is getting support from across the political spectrum, Repubs, Libertarians, Dems and the BIG one for any candidate to have a chance, the Independent vote AND what we supporters are going after, non-voters who are sick of the centrism and have dropped out altogether. So far I have had great success with non voters. They are going to register as Dems just to vote for Sanders.

Very exciting race now. It's bring a lot of people back into the process and should be great news for ALL democrats that finally we can deliver a progressive message and generate this much enthusiasm.

[Sunlei]

23. only salon sees this.

[Sunlei]

25. i don't even click links from those tabloid 'headlines'. to many tracking cookies.

[sabrina 1]

27. Lol, so now Salon is a tabloid.

I've been clicking Salon for years and have no problem with cookies.

No more than any other site.

The Corporate Media will be giving the Corporate view of all this, though their ratings are so low at this point, especially among young voters, I'm not sure how much impact they have anymore.

[Sunlei]

29. IMO, they are along with republican fox. I don't waste my time there.

[BillZBubb]

31. I'm not necessarily a Hillary supporter, but this is nonsense.

She's the unquestionable most likely Democratic nominee at this point and that means she has a target on her back. The republicans have been blasting her with a barrage of nonsense for over a year. They attack her now as often as they attack president Obama--which is pretty much 24/7.

Now she has challengers in the Democratic field, so she is also getting hit from the left.

Of course her favorability is going down. That's not unusual or unexpected. She just has to weather the storm and when campaigning starts to heat up in the Fall, begin to reassert her many positives.

[1StrongBlackMan]

33. We really shouldn't be paying attention to the polling, this far out ...

but look! A poll we should pay attention to.

[ibegurpard]

34. you're right

And yet pro Hillary polls are infallible. Go figure.

[1StrongBlackMan]

36. "infallible"? ...

It's not the Pro-HRC folks posting about the irrelevancy of polls this far out, immediately after and just before posting a poll showing "the Berning Storm."

Or, have I missed something?

[Zorra]

35. "She has lost ground...on key questions about her honesty...”

I don't trust her at all anymore.