PPP Nat'l Poll-HRC 57% SBS 22% JW 5% LC 3% M0 2%/Leads all Repugs by 3-13

[DemocratSinceBirth]

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 57% to 22% for Bernie Sanders, 5% for Jim Webb, 3% for Lincoln Chafee, and 2% for Martin O'Malley. This does represent some tightening compared to a month ago- Clinton's gone from 65% to 57%, with Sanders gaining from 9% to 22%. Martin O'Malley's announcement bump has also faded, with his support dropping from 5% to 2%.

Clinton may be up by 35 points instead of 56 this month, but she's still pretty dominant across demographic lines. She is polling over 60% with liberals and seniors, and over 5o% with moderates, men, women, whites, and younger voters. Her area of greatest strength though is with African Americans, where she gets 82% to 6% for Sanders and 3% for Webb.
Clinton is in pretty good shape when it comes to potential general election match ups as well. She leads all of the potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 3 to 13 points, comparable to a month ago when her advantages over them ranged from 3 to 7 points. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Rand Paul, who trails by 3 at 45/42. Also coming close are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker all of whom trail by an identical 5 point margin at 46/41.


We also tested Bernie Sanders against the key Republicans and he trails all of them except Trump. His deficits are 7 points against Jeb Bush (44/37), 5 points against Marco Rubio (41/36), and 1 point against Scott Walker (40/39). Against Trump, Sanders leads 47/37. On average Sanders does 8 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans in these head to head match ups.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/trump-still-leads-gop-field-but-descent-may-be-beginning.html#more

[AtomicKitten]

1. Expect the numbers to really move after the debates.

Which is almost certainly why the DNC is stalling scheduling them.

[stevenleser]

20. Yes, toward Hillary. People are not going to see a President when they see Bernie. nt

[AtomicKitten]

21. The trajectory is decidedly in Bernie's direction.

"She has lost ground in the horserace and on the key issues of her honesty and leadership."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/07/22/clinton_polls_behind_bush_rubio_walker_in_key_states_127490.html

[stevenleser]

22. Sure, and if the primaries were eight years from now he might get there. nt

[AtomicKitten]

23. I have every confidence she'll lose as gracelessly as she did before.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Absolutely gracelessly

I have every confidence she'll lose as gracelessly as she did before.

[LuvLoogie]

29. Hell yeah!

These Hillary haters need to get another hobby.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. More gracelessness

[artislife]

47. ^^^anatomy of what is wrong with the fandoms

Beiber is Better!

The Jonas Brother RULE!

Your guy makes sucky music!

Yeah...well he did it all himself. Yours was manufactured!


Flame Wars.


Nothing good happens from this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Your interlocutor cherry picked three polls and ignored everything else like this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[Scootaloo]

35. Does it hurt to be so full of hate? seriously Steven.

[grahamhgreen]

45. What kind of non-statement is that? What policies will they disagree with?

[peacebird]

2. Bernie's trajectory is going the correct direction!

[Cali_Democrat]

17. But he doesn't seem to be taking away from Hillary.

Hillary is right at her average (58%) when you look at polling since January of this year....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls


Hillary is still running very strong among Democratic primary voters.

[peacebird]

18. You know, you really can't dampen our enthusiasm, but my goodness, you sure try hard enough

Bless your little heart!

[Cali_Democrat]

19. I'm not trying to dampen your enthusiasm

Enthusiasm is good for the party.

I'm merely pointing out the hard numbers related to Hillary and her support from Dems.

This place has gone crazy. Every single little post is taken as a slight or outright attack by supporters of various candidates.

[Iliyah]

3. K & R

I'm surprised about O'Malley and Jim Webb is at 5%, oh my.

PPP is pretty reliable. Thank you!

Go Hillary!!!!!!!!!!

[Ken Burch]

4. Someone will start a Confederates For Webb Facebook page any day now. n/t.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I suspect most of his support is in the south.

eom

[Ken Burch]

7. y'think?

It'd be hysterical if Ted Nugent and Kid Rock accidentally endorsed him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Or the survivors of Lynyrd Skynyrd./nt

[Ken Burch]

10. Which leaves us with the nightmare image of "Sweet Home Alabama" playing at the inaugural ball

(God I wish we had a "binge drinking to wash that thought out of my mind" smilie).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I actually like Eminem's cover

[Ken Burch]

24. That IS good.

Only thing that would've made it better would be if "Sugar Man" was on it with them.

[redstateblues]

40. Not in TN.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I like TN...I almost went to grad school at Vandy...

eom

[London Lover Man]

42. I *thought* most of his support went south..

*rimshot*.. I'll be here all week, Try the special, and tip the waitress nicely!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. He is the darling of Confederate Reenactors everywhere/nt

[whatchamacallit]

5. Yay, a post of yours I like!

[riversedge]

9. K and R--and thanks

[ram2008]

11. Good numbers for everyone

If you're a Bernie fan he's still on an upward trajectory and slowly closing the gap against Hillary.

If you're a Hillary fan she's still showing dominance with African Americans and in the General.

[elleng]

37. And OF COURSE Webb and Chaffee are doing better than O'Malley,

of COURSE! GREAT numbers!

[ram2008]

44. O'Malley doesn't have a niche

I feel bad for him but he doesn't really have a base of support he can grab votes from. Sanders has sucked up all the oxygen and captured the heart and energy of the millennial/Warren activist wing of the party, Hillary has the establishment, women and minorities, and Webb will have the old Democrats/ good ol boy southern blue collar type voters.

Where does that leave O'Malley? Stuck with Bernie on his left flank, Hillary to his center right and Webb all the way right. I think his numbers should be higher, but the only way he gains traction is if Hillary collapses, or if he makes a particularly strong showing in Iowa. I've said before he's sort of the Tim Pawlenty of the Dems. Great on paper and slightly appealing to every group in the party but just doesn't have the ability to translate that into support (not really his fault). The electoral jack of all trades, but master of none.

[artislife]

46. That is a pretty good assessment

I remember first hearing about O'Malley and his handling with Baltimore. It wasn't a good first impression. I have only looked closer at him because of the civility of his supporters here. I have been surprised on how much I like him. He still has a big issue that is hard to overlook, but I am sure he will not be in the race for very long. So I really don't have to make a choice.

[artislife]

48. I agree

There is hopefulness for the two top contenders.

[JaneyVee]

13. I really thought Biden would've dug into Hillary's numbers, instead...

It seems without Biden, Bernie picks up some while Hillary remains at 57. Did they do one with Biden?

[stevenleser]

27. Because it really is about the anti-Hillary vote and Biden would eat into that.

I have no idea how it breaks down but some percentage of Bernie's numbers are progressive ideologues and some are simply voting for someone other than Hillary. A good portion of the latter would jump to Biden if he got in the race.

[DCBob]

14. The key point: "On average Sanders does 8 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans"

The other poll today seems off.

[ericson00]

15. The National Vote and Electoral Vote Moves in Tandem 93% of the time

which is a very good sign. Thing tho is where will Obama's approvals go between now and election day 2016? That will decide the ultimate outcome.

State polls are hard now because she's barely been campaigning, and the ads with Jeb and his brother aren't playing yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. If you look at the internals of the Quinnipiac poll they undersampled POC and Dems...

Of course that's my opinion but it is an outlier so far.

[Renew Deal]

28. How O'Malley is in last place is a mystery to me.

How is he behind Chaffee?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. MOE , Polling Error, and Noise

eom

[Adrahil]

33. I agree....

The less represented a candidate is in the responses, the less reliable the absolute numbers are.

[elleng]

39. THANK YOU, Renew Deal!

I'll avoid using 'bad words,' but it's B.S!

Ignore the man behind the curtain!

Governor O'Malley NEVER spoke at the Iowa Democratic Hall of Fame Dinner! http://www.democraticunderground.com/12811765

[sadoldgirl]

32. Considering that in April Bernie was at 3%, yet

at the end of July he is at 22%, that shows a steady
increase. Even if he only gets a 4% increase for the next 6 months,
that will do it.

[Adrahil]

34. That's possible, of course....

But I don't know of any model that would show that kind of change on it's own. You'd expect his increase to be more exponential, leveling out, rather than a steady geometric progression. If nothing changed, Bernie would be likely to fall well short.

HOWEVER, this isn't a static race. Lots of things could change. CLinton could step in it. Bernie could connect with minorities and people like me who don't think he's a very good candidate. The dabates could change a lot, though they usually don't, but Bernie is not your usual candidate.

I still think he peters out somewhere between 20-30% nationally.

[sadoldgirl]

36. Yes, all things could change, and

B. Clinton may make the most successful pitch for his
wife, though I hope in a better spirit than in 08.

Don't forget though, that Bernie travelled for a year
ahead of his decision to run, and may have very
well calculated how steep a hill he had to climb.

I think that he is a steady, not an exponential climber,
but we will see. The world situation can change tomorrow,
even in a few weeks the Iran deal may fall apart. I hope
not, but this is a very tricky vote in Congress. What would
be the next step if it is blocked? A possible huge rise
for Webb, imho.

[Adrahil]

38. I can't see Webb making any inroads.

I think O'Malley could POSSIBLY connect and grab some numbers, but I think he mainly would draw from mainstream Dems, who are supporting HRC in overwhelming numbers.

While I think it's LIKELY that HRC will win, in a fairly classic pattern, it's just POSSIBLE that Bernie could turn the corner. TO do so, he really has to connect with some of the mainstream party supporters, who admire Hillary. For example, it still bothers me that he will not declare himself a Democrat. He wants to represent my party in the Presidential election, but won't declare himself a Democrat?

Now I don;t want to make more of that than there is. I really like Bernie. But there are those nagging little things.

But really, what could make the difference is if Bernie can connect with Minorities. I don;t think his civil rights bona fides are in question (at least not to me), but he's NEVER had to a build a campaign that has had to make minority voters feel included. Can he do that? WEll, as you point out, he's not a vanity candidate, and he is, in my view, very smart. He MIGHT be able too. But that really is a tall hill to climb. It will be fascinating to see.

I support Hillary because I think she will be the better candidate next Fall. But I really like Bernie. And although I think he'd have a tough time in 2016, some part of me is still pulling for him!