2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDoes Hillary Have a Swing-State Problem?
By Josh VoorheesDespite Bernie Sanders best efforts, Hillary Clinton remains on pace to secure her partys nomination this summer. Assuming the overwhelming Democratic frontrunner makes it to the general election, though, potential trouble may be waiting. A new Quinnipiac University poll out Wednesday finds Clinton trailing in a pair of important swing states and locked in too-close-to-call races in a third with the GOPs Big Three: Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush.
In a hypothetical match-up among registered voters in Colorado, Clinton trails Walker by 9 points, Rubio by 8 points, and Bush by 5 points. The news is similar in Iowa, where the former secretary of state trails Walker and Rubio both by 8 points, and Bush by 6 points. And in Virginia, Clinton trails Walker and Bush both by 3 points, and Rubio by 2 pointsalthough given the surveys margins of error, those match-ups are too close for the pollsters to call either way. When Quinnipiac asked the same questions in April, Clinton had clear leads in five of the matchups, and split the remaining four too-close-to-call face-offs.
-snip-
The latest numbers are sure to prompt some handwringing from Team Hillaryalong with some cheering from Team GOPbut it would be a mistake to read too much into one set of swing state surveys. The new numbers could be an early sign of a shiftor they could just be a few blips on the radar. Nationally, Clinton continues to fare much better in general election match-ups. In RealClearPolitics rolling average, she leads Walker by more than 10 points, Rubio by more than 7 points, and Bush by nearly 6 points.
Regardless, July 2015 is a long way away from November 2016. Once the GOP finally settles on a candidate, perceptions of that man or woman is certain to shift as voters learn more about him or her. (OK, fine, its going to be a man.) Even in Iowawhere voters are exposed early and often to White House hopefulsmore than a third of respondents said that they hadnt heard enough about Rubio or Walker to have an opinion about them. Hillary, then, has plenty of time to try to right her own shipand sink those of her rivals.
Complete article:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/22/hillary_clinton_s_swing_state_numbers_quinnipiac_poll_shows_clinton_trailing.html?
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Hillary supporters will point to other polls and call this poll outlier. However all the other polls I have seen are national vs swing states.
I have always said Hillary will be unpopular with the general public. Her only option is to run negative campaign and hope the Republican candidate is less popular. This will be tough due to money the other side is going to raise. Plus negative campaigns tend to reduce turnout which favors Republicans.
still_one
(92,492 posts)other Democratic candidates will fare much better, assuming this particular poll is accurate, and didn't over sample republicans, because they ASSUMED that Democrats won't show up. That worked out very well for Gallop in the 2012 election, where they came in dead last.
Other polls are needed to confirm this. It should be kept in mind for whatever reason those states voted for the likes of joni ernst and Walker in Wisconsin, and that indicates what they are calling swing states, are more purple than not
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)There's a lot at stake this election. We need senate victories as well.
still_one
(92,492 posts)mean good news for any of the Democratic candidates in the race. Anyone looking at the positions of those republicans from going to war, to the war against women, one has to conclude either the polling over sampled republicans, or those states have turned hard right and lost their fu**ing minds
Fearless
(18,421 posts)earthside
(6,960 posts)... and I've said all along that Hillary Clinton is a loser here.
Clinton trails GOP candidates in early Colorado poll
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/politics/2015/07/22/hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-survey/30496739/
If a Democrat cannot win Colorado, Virginia, Nevada ... then it is going to be tough. Winning in those swing states also shows wide appeal -- a characteristic the Clinton campaign simply does not have and will make even carrying Ohio and Florida difficult.
Democrats are really letting themselves in for a big fall if they stick to this Clinton inevitability meme.
Yes, a Bush can get elected; yes, a Walker can get elected; yes, a Kasich can get elected; yes, a Roubio can get elected.
Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the activist-class that is paying attention this early in the process taking the real possibility of a Clinton defeat seriously.
I so wish Hillary would get out and let one of the fresh faces put forth a new vision for the Democratic Party and the nation. But sadly I think she and Bill are too in love with money and power to do the right thing.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)brunt of attacks from the right-wing and the "liberal" media. If Sanders or O'Malley take the lead, they'll be subjected to the same scrutiny and attacks.
London Lover Man
(371 posts)Bernie 2016. Period. No other alternatives.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Hillary 2016. Reality.
London Lover Man
(371 posts)She'll go down like in 2008. Deja Vu Part II.
HAND...
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)September 2014:
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/poll-bob-beauprez-john-hickenlooper-111047.html
The Democratic incumbent is badly underwater in the Q poll, viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 43 percent. Beauprez, a former congressman, is viewed positively by 49 percent and negatively by 31 percent.
No one in the game really believes that Beauprez is ahead by double digits a month-and-a-half out from the election. A Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll last week had Hickenlooper up 2 points, 45-43, among likely voters. The NBC/Marist Poll in the field Sept. 2-4, showed Hickenlooper up 4 points, 43-39.
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26854350/quinnipiac-poll-colorado-governor-senate-races-too-close
"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper will have to count on an aggressive final hour ground game and a bump from the undecideds to keep the state's top job, but it can go either way," Malloy said.
Final results:
Hickenlooper beat Beauprez.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Right wing infiltration?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)and using one of their big misses as proof.
In the same poll they nailed the Senate race in Colorado.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)It's happened to other countries.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)1. Too far out to mean anything but.... it should send trembles. Unfavorability always plays a part in elections.
2. To dismiss polls out of hand by declaring them bad pollsters with little to no back up on that account does no one a service. Nate Silver grades them B+
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Yes you weren't dismissing but GT upthread most assuredly is.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)November 3, 2014 - Beauprez-45%, Hickenlooper-43% In Colorado Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gardner At 45% To Udall's 43% In Senate Race
Final results:
Gardner beat Udall.
London Lover Man
(371 posts)Only it turned out to be the opposite, and because Udall was DLC/Third Wayer, they decided to opt for the real thing.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)which they missed.
They hit the Senate race
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2111
brooklynite
(94,911 posts)taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)I seriously think that if Bernie won the nomination, he would struggle to win California, especially against a "perceived" moderate like Kasich.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)But that is just the latest Quinniapiac poll, which seems to be an outlier.
SunSeeker
(51,787 posts)And that despite no daily attacks from Fox like Clinton is enduring. At least Clinton gets in the 40s, and this polling outfit tends to lean GOP.
Here are all of Hillary's and Bernie's numbers against top GOP contenders in those three states:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2261
Autumn
(45,120 posts)oasis
(49,454 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)these idiots would vote to starve up their kids first.
oasis
(49,454 posts)Obama being elected twice is proof of that.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)askew
(1,464 posts)The fact that her favorables have been sinking in poll after poll should be alarming Hillary and her supporters. The fact that her trustworthy #s are so low that she is bordering on unelectable should terrify all Dems. The only president who got elected with trustworthy #s as low as Hillary's is Bill Clinton in 1996. Difference being he was running for re-election and he is one of the best politicians of his time. Hillary is not running for re-election and is an average politician at best.
What's most terrifying is her #s are falling quickly in Iowa, the state that has spent the most time with her up-close. That means she is actually becoming less likable and less trustworthy as voters see more of her.
Why on earth would we nominate such a damaged candidate?