2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNot everyone thinks that Bernie Sanders is the best choice
as the Democratic nominee for President. In fact, not everyone who thinks Senator Sanders has the right point of view on issues thinks he is the best choice as the nominee. That may come as a surprise to some people, but it shouldn't. There are some political considerations that lead many Democrats to think Hillary Clinton would be a better nominee. Some of the reasons for that thinking, even among Democrats who strongly support Sanders' positions include:
1. Electability - For many Democrats, policy positions alone are not enough. Some remember outstanding Democratic candidates who lost in the general election in a landslide. Many of those Democrats look at Bernie Sanders and see another such candidate, and think electing a Democrat is more important than complete agreement with the nominee's positions.
2. Popularity Overall - Many Democrats pay close attention to polling. In deciding which primary candidate to support for the Democratic nomination, they look to see which candidate appears to have the largest number of supporters nationwide. They also look at comparisons of candidates with potential Republican opponents. Hillary Clinton's poll numbers are excellent with Democratic voters across the spectrum and across the nation.
3. Name Recognition - Many people look closely to see which candidate is best known by Democratic voters. While that may seem to be an artificial way to decide whom to support, it's a real factor. A large number of Democrats who vote actually pay little attention to politics and vote based on factors many of us do not consider important. How well-known a general election candidate is has much to do with electability. That may be a bad thing, but it is a real thing.
4. Support by minority voting blocs - Black voters, Hispanic voters, Asian voters and other groups have increased in numbers over the years. Today, in several states with large delegations of electoral college votes, minority groups actually outnumber white voters. How they vote, and whether they vote may well make an enormous difference in the outcome of the general election. Poll numbers in these groups is often an important factor in deciding who to support.
5. Appeal to a majority of voters - Even for very progressive Democrats, it's easy to recognize that the votes of centrist and independent Americans are crucial to winning in any presidential election. In fact, those voters make up the largest single group of voters in those elections. A nominee who doesn't appeal to that group has little chance of winning, historically. So, it's an issue to consider.
6. Turnout - Turnout is a very important factor in election outcomes. Which candidate will result in the largest turnout of Democratic voters is something that needs to be considered in every presidential election year. Again, history is the guide, not just opinions of the candidates' positions. Not every candidate I like can create a massive turnout of Democrats.
Does the importance of these factors suck? Yes, probably. But they exist and affect the outcome of every election. For many Democrats with long histories of election activism, decisions about whom to support must take all of them into consideration. For many Democratic activist, electing Democrats to office is really the highest priority. If we fail in that, we simply fail. As we've seen, it's very easy for an election to result in a Republican being elected. That's a bad thing, so I'm working to prevent that, if I can.
Who do I support? I support Senator Sanders in the primary race. I'll be caucusing for him in Minnesota on March 1. Do I think he will be the nominee? Not really, but the primaries are where I support candidates who best match my positions. If too few others vote as I do, someone else, probably Hillary Clinton, will be the nominee. She's a Democrat, too. I can heartily support her in the general election and will refrain from attacking her during the primaries. If she's the nominee, I'll be supporting her enthusiastically, as I do all Democratic general election candidates. Nothing I say now will come back to haunt me later. I'm a realist and don't burn my bridges during the primaries.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Thanks for the pep talk!
jonno99
(2,620 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)He's well-known in progressive circles, certainly. Expanding that name recognition, however, in enough states to get him the nomination will be a very difficult job. Looked at realistically, unless he increases his polling numbers nationally in a significant way, he's not going to get the media coverage required to build enough name recognition to win many primary elections.
Most people don't follow election coverage and candidates all that much, especially in the lead-up to the primaries. If they do, they are seeing modest news coverage of primary issues. They're not on sites like DU in enough numbers to make much of a difference. Recent numbers show that over 70% of Americans get most of their news from local and national news coverage on the three major network channels, CBS, NBC and ABC. Viewership of any one of those news outlets overwhelms the numbers of viewers of all cable news channels combined. Those are the facts.
Name recognition is huge in elections. It affects an amazingly large percentage of voters. That may be disappointing, but it's true.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)please educate yourself
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)I guess more than half a century of being politically active hasn't given me enough knowledge to understand how polling works. I'll do my very best to correct my ignorance, you can be sure. Yes, indeed, I will.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)Your words:
"Recent numbers show that over 70% of Americans get most of their news from local and national news coverage on the three major network channels, CBS, NBC and ABC. Viewership of any one of those news outlets overwhelms the numbers of viewers of all cable news channels combined. Those are the FACTS."
...and remember an awakening can happen at any moment.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)Some are better than others, and polling also depends on when the poll is taken in relation to the date of an election. However, they're very good at showing trends. Very good, indeed.
So, what are you aspiring to be, aspirant? I've wondered about that. It's a thought-provoking screen name.
I remember when Ford named one of its models "Aspire." It was an entry level car. It apparently "aspired" to be a real, grown-up car. Apparently it didn't succeed, since Ford dropped the name. Aspirations are good, but don't always result in reaching the goal.
As for awakening, I've been awake for almost 70 years. It's a shame to go through life asleep.
Response to MineralMan (Reply #54)
Post removed
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)That was easy to do, huh? Here's a hint for you, though: It's really bad form to use real names in posts on DU. What is really revealed is not the name of a poster, but the fact that you thought somehow that it was a good idea to post a real name in a public post.
It's not a good idea at all. In fact it's against the most fundamental rules of DU. You can see the Terms of Service of DU by clicking a link at the bottom of any page on this website.
Please do not do that again.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)you provide it in your Sig Line
What is also bad form is trying to hustle business by promoting your website with your name and telephone # in plain view.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)Go read the DU TOS, as I suggested.
DU allows people to link to things in their signature lines. If you wish, you can alert on that.
Thank you for editing your post. Again, please do not repeat that mistake again. It's a serious violation of DU's TOS.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,377 posts)On Wed Jul 22, 2015, 03:03 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
I see you have found my real life first name.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=468777
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
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You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Jul 22, 2015, 03:10 PM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.
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MineralMan
(146,346 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)when this poster stalked another DU'er.
Ok, I used it back then, but find it interesting others get the same vibe from these inappropriate posts.
Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)JI7
(89,285 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)He's my best choice and that's the man I'm going to vote for.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)In the general election, I'll be voting for and supporting the Democratic nominee. I've been doing that since 1960, and will continue in 2016.
We'll see what happens.
elleng
(131,320 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)which is notably missing from your list.
Ultimately we the people should be picking the best person to do the things we want them to do to fix a broken and corrupt system, not just the person that "can get elected" in a broken and corrupt system.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)It is, however, not the only factor, and maybe not even the most important factor in who wins. We've certainly seen that play out enough times. Otherwise how did Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan win? Or George W. Bush, for that matter.
Issues matter, of course, but I don't think they're the primary thing that influences presidential elections. I've seen no evidence of that, really.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... that has affected our elections, when we don't have the mass movements in full swing yet, like they are starting to now, and also helped put in power someone like FDR in his day.
I think though we recognize how the system looks at these other factors more than issues, we should ultimately still say that how candidates stand on issues I think is what a majority of Americans WANT the system to use as the primary decisive factor, and I think it will be more of a factor as movements like Bernie's and others such as BLM and Occupy from a few years ago rise up again to say that issues NEED to matter in our elections.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)that issues are overrated as a factor in who wins general elections, frankly. I also think that it's a very long pull to convince people that there are significant differences between the current Democratic primary nominees. I think only policy wonks even see the differences. Truly.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... who wins rather than people voting who works best for them (that usually is determined by how they understand who they are voting for stands and votes on various issues affecting them).
Yes, the system of our elections and money has made it less of a factor *by design* by those that want who gets elected to be working for them and not us. And our system of education, media, etc. has made it that much harder for newer generations growing up in this environment to see the importance of how our corrupt governance has affected us all, and to have examples more vivid to them from the past when government worked more for them then.
brooklynite
(94,929 posts)...say, More Govt spending and social programs vs lower taxes abd reduced regulations. Policiy specifics tend to go over the average voters' heads.
Eatacig
(97 posts)I like Bernie Sanders but please, lets be honest. Bernie doesn't have policy positions,
he has a wish list. Never once have I heard how he is going to put that chicken in
every pot.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Not everyone thinks anything is the best choice.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)Some prefer sitting down.
Standing up can be good though.
I suppose it's just a personal thing with many.
Standing or sitting is a choice we have to make for ourselves I suppose...
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Zorra
(27,670 posts)and then can't figure out why their lives suck, and everything just keeps getting worse.
There are a some things in this world we can't fix.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)democratic republic is that voters often vote in ways that seem really uninformed and misguided. I don't see that changing any time soon, either. So, I tend to look at elections, particularly presidential elections, based on the realities of electoral politics. It can be very frustrating most of the time.
However, that's the system that is in place, and changes to that system seem extraordinarily unlikely. In general, we do better when Democrats control the Executive and Legislative branches of government. So, I'm a Democrat and promote that outcome, even when I'm not totally enamored of the choices.
Shit gets real every couple of years. It does.
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)"I won't vote for them because they're not electable" is circular and self-defeating.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)But it's just one. All the rest of the measures, though, contribute to electability.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)There's no actual standard for "electability," no measure, except for people voting. It's a term used purely to bias the discussion.
MY candidate is electable.
YOUR candidate is unelectable.
And there's no way to convince the other person of your position, because that's all it is. MY candidate is awesome, YOUR candidate is a droolbucket.
And then you take this style of argument, and you put it in the mouth of a media conglomerate and all of its affiliates, to drone it constantly for months on end. I wonder what happens!
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)is to look at head-to-head polls between a potential Democratic nominee against potential Republicans.
If supporters can prove their candidate would perform better in a general election match up via scientific polls, then they have a case.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Man, those were some good times.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)With them both losing to the top three R's in Virginia, Ohio , and I think NJ....
So Benie is at 36% there which is way up for him, and Hillary is down to 36%... Trajectory has it going Bernie's way! Maybe you get to vote in the primary for who you want, and actually get to vote for him in the general election as well!
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)They're not saying what you're saying they're saying, frankly. Right now, Sanders has stalled. Now, that's based on polls from late June. But in major national polls, he's not moving up in his numbers right now. Those are more recent.
Gothmog
(145,820 posts)Some candidates are better able to raise the funds necessary to complete. President Obama blew everyone away in 2008 with his small donor fundraising efforts and that made it clear that he was electable. Jeb is trying to do the same on the GOP side with his $100 million super pac.
There are many on this board who doubt that Sanders will be able to compete in a general election contest where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate will likely spend another billion. This article had a very interesting quote about the role of super pacs in the upcoming election http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/03/bernie-sanders-grassroots-movement-gains-clinton-machine
I regret the fact the Bernie Sanders has embraced the idea that hes going to live life like the Vermont snow, as pure as he possibly can, while he runs for president, because it weakens his chances and hes an enormously important progressive voice, Lessig said.
President Obama was against super pacs in 2012 but had to use one to keep the race close. I do not like super pacs but any Democratic candidate who wants to be viable has to use a super pac, The super pacs associated with Clinton raised $24 million and so Clinton raised $70 this quarter.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)You're right, though. Fundraising ability is a huge factor, since those funds are spent in convincing people to vote for a particular individual and funding also affects all of the other factors I did mention.
We can't get rid of Citizens United until Democrats are in control of all three branches of government, either. We need to get rid of it, but that is going to depend on electing Democrats. The Republicans will never change it.
The system is what the system is. I'd make many changes in it. I know of no way to do that, though, other than helping Democrats get control of all three branches. That's not going to happen quickly, either, even if we stretch our imaginations to the limit.
Reality bites!
Gothmog
(145,820 posts)Modern campaigns are major operations that are very expensive. You have to be raise significant amount of funds to get the message out and to man GOTV operations in key states.
There was another thread that bragged about Sanders not doing any polling. The fact that Sanders is not polling or building a campaign organization worries me as to his electablity. Polling is part of a modern campaign. I worry that Sanders is not really trying to win but is mainly getting his message out.
As noted, this is the primary process and the factors you listed are important
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)to tell you the truth. He may well be pretty sure he will not be the nominee and is in the race to push the debate leftward. If that's the case, good for him. If he believes he can win the nomination, good for him, too.
Some time back, I predicted that he'd withdraw after Super Tuesday. I still think that's pretty likely, based on current polling in the early primary states and nationally. As it happens, the Minnesota caucus votes are on Super Tuesday, March 1. I'll be caucusing for him, and will also caucus for him at the later conventions where I am a delegate, if he hasn't withdrawn. However, I don't think Minnesota will choose him as the nominee, and expect our delegation to the national convention to be dominated by Clinton delegates. I know the local politics and who attends the caucuses and conventions. They're pretty much mainstream Democrats as a majority. Unless there's a huge increase in caucus attendance, I don't see that changing, truthfully. I'll do what I can, but I doubt that will change the outcome.
Gothmog
(145,820 posts)I am a precinct chair and so I have to vote in the Democratic primary. In addition, I am thinking about applying and trying to be a delegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Otherwise, it could be fun to see if we could mess up the GOP primary fight.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)I don't think that works. I'm comfortable with letting them screw things up all on their own.
TexasProgresive
(12,164 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)I though about it, but skipped it. Just electing a Democrat as President doesn't get it. We must regain control of Congress, too, and that's an even tougher nut. A popular Presidential candidate can help with that, by pulling more voters to the election. That increases the number of Democrats being elected.
GOTV is my main thrust of activism. It's also a very frustrating thing.
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)tymorial
(3,433 posts)These posts are just too funny. I swear, the same posts are posted day after day after day with just different wording and language.
They all amount to the same friggin thing:
1. Bernie Sanders can't win.
2. Hillary Clinton isn't progressive enough.
3. Bernie Sanders supports gun.
4. Hillary Clinton is in Wallstreet's pocket.
5. Bernie Sanders doesn't have minority support.
It is always one of these or all of these
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)You can control what you see on Democratic Underground. You can also simply not click on threads you deem to be "more of the same." But, DUers will post whatever they want to post here.
So, I can't answer your question, I'm afraid. I imagine you'll see more posts on similar topics. We're discussing the Democratic Primaries in this particular forum, so that seems very likely to me.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)hence:
I swear, the same posts are posted day after day after day with just different wording and language.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)complaining about similar posts. Those are posted daily as well. It's a discussion forum.
Have fun discussing.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)My post (and those like it) are a reaction to the non-stop petty bickering between Clinton and Sanders supporters who are constantly trying to one-up the other. The threads are constant and unending. it pretty much boils down to this:
My candidate is great. Yours sucks. Rinse repeat.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Renew Deal
(81,895 posts)He looked flustered at NN. Big diverse presidential crowds are much different than the small crowds in VT. I'm not sure he is able to deal with the pressure.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)It's a big country, though. You're right. He has undertaken an enormous journey. Bravo to him for that. I can't even imagine how much stress a presidential campaign entails, but it's something not many people are capable of. I hope he can maintain the pace and adapt to a changing situation.
He's a tough guy, though. That's for sure. I hope he's not overestimating his endurance.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Showing just how much he supports Senator Sanders.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)my precinct in St. Paul remains open. It's on March 1, and they generally begin at 6 PM. You'll have to attend as an observer, of course, but you'll get to see me make my pitch for Bernie Sanders. If you'd like to attend, I'll make sure you get plenty of advance notice about the exact location and time.
Or, you can just click the precinct website link in my signature line. As soon as I have the details, I'll be posting them on that website, which I've been maintaining for almost 10 years, now.
I hope to see you there.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)and now "will refrain from attacking her during the primaries"
So if Bernie screwed up is not an attack, when can we expect Hillary screwed up threads
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)"Feet to the fire" and all that, eh?
aspirant
(3,533 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)This forum is about the upcoming Democratic Primaries. As a candidate, she hasn't really screwed up much in her campaign. She has demonstrated her experience as a candidate and appears to have learned a lot since 2008.
Her aspirations for the nomination remain intact, I think. If she screws up in her campaign, I'll post about it. And by screwing up, I mean something more than simply saying something I disagree with. Her campaign seems to be on track.
FSogol
(45,580 posts)While Sanders is an excellent candidate on a whole host of issues, he is not the best candidate on every single issue. Some of our candidates are better on specific issues and have more workable plans for dealing with those issues.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)However, I think that the majority of primary voters see all of the Democratic candidates as having similar positions on issues. If you look at their campaign pages, it's hard to find a lot of difference in their positions on the major issues of the day. That's why I didn't include it. I think primary votes are mainly based on other things for the majority of voters who actually show up at the polling place or caucuses.
I wish the turnout was much higher than it actually is. If we get a dozen people at my precinct caucus who stick around long enough for delegate selection, I'll be amazed. As long as I've been involved here, we've never filled our delegate list for the state senate district convention. Our precinct typically has 14 delegate positions. We typically fill about six of them. It's frustrating.
I could give you a list of the six people who will show up. I know each of them personally. Of the six, two will be Bernie Sanders supporters, including me. The other four will be Clinton supporters. We may pick up a couple more delegates, since it's a presidential election year, but that's about it. Even in 2008, there were only a dozen people left for delegate selection and half of them declined to apply to be a delegate. Go figure.
FSogol
(45,580 posts)The caucus seemed set up to let the establishment candidate win.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)is a real opportunity for emergent campaigns. If they can get a crowd at the caucus meetings, they can easily overcome the establishment leaning. In 2008, for example, attendance during the straw poll portion of our caucus meeting was truly extraordinary, and Obama won going way in my precinct, and statewide. Sadly, almost everyone just came and voted, then left before delegate selection. We tried to get some people to stay but, in the end, it was the same group that always stays.
We'll see what happens on March 1, 2015. I'll report back the next morning here.
FSogol
(45,580 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Kind of surprised such a simple statement would need such elaboration. But it seem to here.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I'm committed.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)That's one way to do it, for sure.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)The chicken contributes but the pig, the pig commits.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)It is interesting how all of your recent posts actually give reasons not to vote for Sanders. At least this one doesn't contain false claims about Sanders. You are improving in your heartfelt "support" of Sanders.
djean111
(14,255 posts)On the bright side, doubt there is any influence.
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)I'm thinking people would stay home in droves, because who cares which dynasty gets the next turn?
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)She's leading him in national polls right now. I think it would actually be a high turnout election, though. Both candidates are very, very well-known and people have strong opinions about them.
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)At this point the odds are stacked that we will see that matchup, I think. Given that, we may get to see which of us is correct re turnout. I think Bernie is the more polarizing and would inspire the greater turnout on both sides. I guess we may live to find out.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)I recognize how little my opinion means at that level of politics.
Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)Not everyone likes it but most will eat it if they get hungry enough. nt
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)matt819
(10,749 posts)Yes, we know that.
And not everyone thinks that Hillary is the best choice.
And not everyone thinks that Martin is the best choice (we're all on a first name basis here).
And not everyone thinks Joe is the best choice.
(And anyone who doesn't support my candidate is a big fat dummy.)
This is why we have campaigns. And elections.
At least we have adults running on the D side, rather than rejected applicants to clown school in Sarasota.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Not everyone thinks Hillary is the best choice, either.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I will never fill in a bubble when his fans think it's okay to harass black folks like this. It's not only me. Every black person on this board. They need a good look in the mirror. I feel racism comin at us on all sides. Trying to shut down and run off the last few black folks here in stupid as hell.
Sanders fans need to tell their friends that alerting on all of our posts, wins them disgust for their candidate.
steve2470
(37,457 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)I have no idea if people are alerting on my posts. Occasionally I see jury results from a failed alert, but not often. I'm sorry to hear that, bravenak.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)MineralMan
(146,346 posts)only occasionally are exposed. When they are, a lot of people are surprised. What is sometimes revealed is not attractive, to say the least. You have lots of support here, too.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)JI7
(89,285 posts)and he deserves better. your advice to him was helpful and instead they dismiss it as accusing him of being racist and just bringing up the issue at all.
steve2470
(37,457 posts)At this moment, I'm going to vote for Senator Sanders in the Florida primary, and I hope he can win. I have my doubts. He has a big hill to climb, and the nastiness from the other side has only started (the smear about him being a Nazi, gimmeafugginbreak). The communist smear is coming any day now, or maybe it's already started.
To be clear, I'll take Governor O'Malley also. Secretary Clinton works for me, as well. As I said, the worst Democrat is better than the best Republican. I'll take Secretary Clinton over, oh, Senator Lisa Murkowski from AK. Yes, I know Sen. Murkowski is not running but you get my point.
MineralMan
(146,346 posts)In fact, it's the biggest issue of all for many people.