VA poll SHOWS that Bernie can undoubtedly WIN the general election

[ram2008]

Virginia was pretty much the bellwether in 2012 almost mirroring the popular vote with Obama and Romney.

Virginia: Obama 50.8%, Romney 47.8%
Popular vote: Obama 51.1, Romney 47.2%

Todays PPP poll shows something interesting, Bernie is pretty much tied with the frontrunners who have HIGHER name recognition than him:

"We also tested Bernie Sanders against the leading Republicans- he leads Trump 43/39, but trails Bush 40/39, Walker 39/38, and Rubio 40/38."http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71615.pdf

Bernie beats Trump and is essentially tied with three other front runners in the state. But guess what? Jeb Bush, who is almost universally recognized has no where to go but down, is only holding onto a meager 1 point lead. Same with Walker, and Rubio is +2.

This is pretty big news-- Bernie's name ID is way less than Bush and less than Rubio and Walker. If he raises his profile to their level, he will most likely be LEADING them in the general. Virginia is most likely going to be the state that decides the election, so if Bernie is already tying here, then he most certainly can win the whole thing.

The idea that Bernie Sanders is unelectable is pure non-sense. And the data is starting to show that.

[winter is coming]

1. Interesting. I hope we see more polling match-ups with candidates other than HRC. n/t

[DanTex]

2. So he's already losing, and hasn't been subjected to the GOP attack machine yet.

[ram2008]

3. Ideas will win the election

Not money. Our side will not be able to keep up with all the Repub dark money. If its money vs money we lose. That's why we need Bernie's ideas. It's not surprise that his favorability and numbers continue to improve in every poll as his name recognition goes up.

[London Lover Man]

4. Bzzt. Premature speculation.

Next polls will show Bernie clobbering the EFF out of any Republicans....

If VA shows Bernie just literally tying with key Republicans, just wait until after the debates and the primaries are done .

Y'all in for a BIG ride of your life... better than Obama's 2008's ride and then eventual lip service.. The progressive wave will indeed be a very large one that will dwarf Obama's.

[leveymg]

5. The None Of The Above factor is stronger than the GOP and D attack machines put together

Machine politics is about to have its assessment handed to it at both ends. It's going to be a treat.

[DanTex]

6. The none of the above factor is why Bernie is doing as well as he is.

He won't be "none of the above" anymore after the Koch brothers run $200M worth of adds showing him calling himself a socialist.

[ram2008]

10. What about when they run ads of Hillary dodging sniper fire?

That's not going to help her already tanking trustworthiness numbers.

Fear is not a good motivator to vote against your interests.

[DanTex]

12. Hillary's already been hit with everything. And she's still standing.

Also, she'll have the funding to fire back.

[ram2008]

15. She keeps falling every poll that released

Every second she's in the spotlight she loses support. If she's the nominee hopefully Republicans lose support faster than she is. Race to the bottom.

[restorefreedom]

11. the people who care about the word socialist

wouldn't vote for a dem anyway.

it is a non issue

[DanTex]

14. 52% of Americans, and even 18% of Dems, wouldn't consider voting for a Socialist.

The worst polling category for a candidate. Worse than atheist or even Muslim.

You really think it's wise going in to an election where only 48% of the electorate would consider voting for you?

[restorefreedom]

17. he is not what they think is a socialist

and when people are educated, they realize they are with him in the issues, that he is standing up for them.

[DanTex]

20. Easy. Just educate the American electorate about what "democratic socialist" really is.

That will go swimmingly. Drastic changes of opinion are so easy to come by. Especially while being outspent by like 10-1. Why didn't anyone else think of this. Just "educate" people! How have the Democrats ever lost an election?

[restorefreedom]

39. all they have to do is listen to him. nt

[RoccoR5955]

45. Where did you get those numbers from?

Last I saw it was the exact opposite.

I think that people are ready for a real socialist.

[DanTex]

50. Here.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx

And I was mistaken. It's even worse than I thought. Only 59% of Democrats would vote for a socialist. Oops.

[tecelote]

67. Didn't they label Obama a socialist?

[DanTex]

68. They tried but failed. Probably because he didn't say "I'm a socialist".

[tecelote]

69. Time will tell.

I don't know of any Republicans voting for Hillary. Not even one women.

But, I know a few Republicans that have embraced Bernie.

Pretty powerful for a Socialist.

[redstateblues]

96. I still can't believe Nixon won. Everybody I know voted for McGovern

[leveymg]

13. People are so desperate for change that's probably an asset

Both the label and the Koch machine attack ads provided Bern is smart enough to embrace them both.

[DanTex]

16. People are always "desperate for a change". Having run negative ads run against you has never been

an asset. And being a socialist is definitely not an asset. Like I said, only 48% of the electorate would consider voting for one.

[leveymg]

21. 48 percent would never vote for Hillary so they're tied

Right out of the box. And another 48 percent would never vote for another Bush. They're all a lot closer to each other than you think whrn you factor in the negatives, which nobody does. Yet.

[DanTex]

24. Not sure where that number came from, Clinton's beating all the Republicans in the head-to-heads.

52% of the electorate won't consider voting for you out of the gate. Really not a good start.

[London Lover Man]

19. and the 99% response to Koch brothers: *YAWN*

Our suggestion to the Koch brothers: Stay off our socialist highways, our socialist public roads, our socialist Internet networks, our socialist parks, our socialist airports, and our socialist marina.

Hate socialism? Move to Somalia. Vote for Bernie, 2016.

Sterrrrrrikeeeee one:

63% of Americans have viewed the word "socialist" favorably. You love polls, so I'll use this one.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/05/11/one-third-millennials-like-socialism/
http://www.independentsentinel.com/bad-omen-poll-says-tens-of-millions-of-democrats-view-socialism-favorably/

[DanTex]

23. Polls are useful, but not when you can't read numbers correctly.

YouGov’s latest research shows that when Americans are asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of socialism and capitalism, capitalism comes out on top. 52% of Americans have a favorable view of capitalism, while only 26% have a favorable view of socialism. Among younger Americans, however, attitudes are a lot more divided. 36% of under-30s have a positive view of socialism, while 39% have a positive view of capitalism. Among over-65s, who came of age at the height of the Cold War, only 15% look upon socialism favorably while 59% have a like capitalism.

[immoderate]

33. You may once again witness history being made.

Observe that history is a dynamic process. The fear of "socialism" is a conditioned fear. People were "McCarthyized." But those irrational things will ultimately succumb to opposing needs. It's value is name-calling. The way the sides line up in this post cold war world: it's the educational-industrial complex vs. the regular folks with their social media.

Typically, socialism is equated with totalitarianism by the people who influence us. If I say how I define, you'll say it's something different. But lately, a lot of "common wisdom" has been cast aside. Do you think that because Americans have been trained to react to a word in a certain way, that makes it the best way?

Ask yourself, why do we have the worst healthcare system in the world? Hint: the answer isn't socialism.

--imm

[arcane1]

40. Not long ago, the name "Hussein" wasn't exactly embraced by America either.

Especially when tied to a name so similar to "Osama" that many people on tv legitimately confused the two when speaking.

Names owned by that black guy, whose first name also sounds a bit too A-rab to some ears.

You know the rest

[Lordquinton]

93. The real political comparison here

An unknown black man named Hussain faced simmilar criticism and won against the well monied establishment, bernie can do it too!

Fake edit: what was the electability data for that year?

[redstateblues]

44. All that splainin about the fine points of Socialism

Will not make it a plus or even neutralize it as so many on DU are attempting to do. It will be a big drag in the GE. Count on it.

[immoderate]

57. But will it work on folks as smart as you?

That's who we need.

--imm

[redstateblues]

60. I'm a lifelong Democrat and I'll vote Democratic in 2016

I just believe that Hillary gives us the best chance to win. I like Bernie but I think some people here are so excited about Bernie that they are not being realistic about the avowed Socialist thing. The polling on that is a huge hill to climb and if he's going to counter it he needs to start soon. It would be a treasure trove for Rs in the GE.

[immoderate]

61. The "avowed Socialist thing?" But you're not fooled?

Where can we find someone to spread that propaganda?

--imm

[Ed Suspicious]

87. Look, I like Bernie, but I just can't bring myself to vote for a candidate I won't vote for.

This is driving me crazy. What is wrong with people? Why are they so quick to pronounce their love for the candidate while at the same time expressing their dislike of the candidate.

I guess nobody will vote for him but the people.

[immoderate]

89. "I would vote for him, but he's TOO RADICAL to get elected!"

I hear that one a lot.

--imm

[Ed Suspicious]

88. Maybe you could stop saying what an impediment the label is and actually embrace it.

Then go out and preach it to friends and family. Once that happens, you might actually get the candidate you claim to like so much. I mean hey, who would have thought we would have elected Barack Hussein Obama, the foreign born, Hitler loving, Socialist, Muslim, Kenyan, community organizer with ties to Bill Ayers and the Weather Underground - not to mention the scary crazy black preacher from Chicago. I mean, what a leap of faith that took. Hope and change really was persuasive enough to get the man elected against all odds. Cast off the cynicism and go all on Bernie.

[arcane1]

37. I'm not letting the Koch brothers choose my nominee for me. If I do, they win either way.

I think not!

[JDPriestly]

95. Anyone who knows his name knows he calls himself a Social Democrat or Democratic Socialist.

He is never shy about saying what he believes in or why or what it means.

If that were a factor, Bernie would not be rising in the polls.

People like his policy proposals. The labels are no longer that important to people. And I think it is because of the poor judgment and excessive greed of Wall Street and employers like the Waltons of Walmart that have hurt so many families.

[moobu2]

9. He's gotten a free ride so far.

is the only reason he isn't polling at 5%.

[leveymg]

18. He'll be at 5 percent. the moment he starts apologizing or triangulating

That's what we all hate about Clinton.

[London Lover Man]

22. Truth vs triangulation?

Let's see.. I think I'll pick authenticity over pseudo-Democrat.

[HERVEPA]

26. sorry, but that's really dumb comment.

[stillwaiting]

64. He's basically tied, and MANY people don't know who he is yet. nt

[demwing]

75. Wow, your post has such a high butt hurt index

I had to recalibrate my scanners

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. Yes!

[BrotherIvan]

8. Hillary leads Jeb by 4%

Within the margin of error. So yes, no candidate is doing well against Jeb who will undoubtedly be the nominee. Sanders just got started, so hopefully his numbers will rise as they have been consistently.

[George II]

25. He has to win the primary and the nomination first.

When was second admirable?

And you missed these "inconvenient truths":

Clinton/Bush - 46/38
Clinton/Cruz - 48/41
Clinton/Fiorina - 46/39
Clinton/Huckabee - 49/39
Clinton/Rubio - 46/43
Clinton/Trump - 49/39
Clinton/Paul - 46/42
Clinton/Walker - 46/42

[ram2008]

27. When was second admirable? Ask Obama

Inconvenient truths that Clinton has 100% name recognition, has been campaigning since 2008 (or 1992), and can't break 50% over the Republican crazy train?

[George II]

52. But she still leads the Democratic (and independent) pack.

[frylock]

49. Ask Hillary..

she knows a thing or two about second place.

[shenmue]

28. A 2012 poll about Obama proved Sanders can win in 2016?

Where did you study politics, Bizarro World?

[ram2008]

31. That's not a poll... those were the election results n/t

[Thinkingabout]

29. My friend, Bernie beat Trump by 4 points and he cam in second in the other match ups

I know you may say Bernie wins in the poll but the truth only in the one matchup. Cognitive dissonance does not change the facts on this one. Sorry

[ram2008]

30. It's a 1 point difference

Also known as statistical noise and the margin of error, he could easily be 1 point ahead of them as well. The facts are its a tie, in Virginia, the tie breaker state. Sorry.

[Thinkingabout]

34. Tie breaker, don't think this would be the tie breaker. They would need many more states in the ge.

[okasha]

41. The deal-breaker isn't Virginia. It's Texas.

Hillary can take it in the general. Bernie can't.

End of story.

[ram2008]

43. Lol, in what universe do you live?

Texas has never been the deal breaker and won't be for decades. If Hillary wins Texas she will have already won the election from other states with bigger margins. The Dealbreaker states are Ohio/Virginia or Iowa/Colorado, Nevada. Texas is irrelevant.

[okasha]

48. I live in Texas,

which has been minority-majority since 2011.
There is no path to a Republican victory without Texas.

Minority voters break heavily--in the 65-85% range-- for Hillary. They so break heavily Democratic. Non-Hispanic whites are now only about 25% of the population in the DFW and Houston metroplex areas. In some urban areas the percentage is much higher, in some a bit lower. These are also the most liberal areas in Texas, and were the first to comply with SCOTUS's equal-marriage ruling the same day it was handed down.

So what it comes down to is intense scrutiny at the polls to maintain the integrity of the vote and a strong GOTV push.

[winter is coming]

51. I'm sure HRC will get an endorsement from Texas' Democratic governor and senators. n/t

[okasha]

53. She has several

Democratic Congressional Representatives and members of the state lege in her column.

Tell me again how many Democratic Senators and Governors have endorsed Sanders. Oh, yeah, that's right. None.

[winter is coming]

54. You completely missed my point.

If Texas' minority-majority status makes it such a lock for Hillary, how did Ted Cruz get elected? Or whichever shitstain replaced Rick Perry?

As to your point, of course Hillary has endorsements. She's the frontrunner, the purported "safe" candidate, and crossing the Clintons is bad news. None of that makes her more appealing.

[okasha]

92. I got it, such as ot was.

1. Paul Sadler

2. Hispanic wife and in-laws.

[John Poet]

62. Fantasyland.

The Democrats won't take Texas next year.

Someday, but not next year.

[okasha]

63. Wait and see.

If Sanders is the Dem candidate, you're right.

If it's Hillary, different story.

[tammywammy]

78. LOL

I'm in Texas too, but this is silly. Texas will go republican again for president.

While I think there will be a higher minority turn out in 2016, it won't be enough to sway Texas to a blue state. Texas didn't go blue in 2008 when there was a higher turnout than I think we'll see in 2016.

[LondonReign2]

90. Would that it were so, but it's not

Margins for the Democrats in the last 5 elections:

1996: -5%
2000: -21%
2004: -23%
2008: -12%
2012: -16%

If the Democratic nominee can get within single digits it will be a minor miracle.

[okasha]

91. Interesting figures,

but not predictive given the troubled --sometimes desperate--situation of the Texas Democratic Party since 2000.

A win is possible, but it depends on
1. Hillary as the nominee;
2. Commitment of financial resources.by the national Party;
3. A vigorous GOTV, especially among Hispanics and African-Americans;
4. Intense scrutiny to prevent GOP fraud; and
5. Willingness to think strategically rather than tactically.

And you can bet your booty Hillary and her campaign are thinking strategically.

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. By show in that he is down to everyone but Trump?

[Thinkingabout]

35. Don't think Virginia is enough to win the election plus he would need to win the primary.

Nice to see you here.

[BainsBane]

36. Some 9 months from now reality will set in

Until then, we're in la la land.

[London Lover Man]

56. That's right. Reality will set in when Bernie is recognized as the Democratic nominee for POTUS...

and Clinton fans can stay to la la land...

That's what will happen at the end.. and the same old tactics will break out soon after the equilibrium is reached after the second debates and Bernie keeps his lead after that. Dirty tricks will be attempted by Clinton or her surrogates, but will fail miserably thanks to the power of the people (and social media).

[BainsBane]

59. Time will tell. nt

[magical thyme]

73. starting statistically tied with the candidates with massive, years-decades old, name recognition.

Yes

Just not for the reason you're claiming

[1StrongBlackMan]

82. I'm missing your point. n/t

[magical thyme]

85. I'm not surprised. nt

[1StrongBlackMan]

86. Thank you. That clears it all up. n/t

[TM99]

38. So Sanders is basically tied

with the other GOP candidates only two months into his campaign and he is still a relative unknown for most Americans?

Yes, he can and will win the general election as long as we can get the fucking corporatists out of the way.

[frylock]

47. I get the impression you're going to get smoked real quick.

[TM99]

55. Look!

It is a Clinton campaign astro-turfer.

[RoccoR5955]

46. The more people hear the word "socialism"

The more they want to try it, as the current system is failing them.

I am sick and tired of people poo-pooing socialism.

There has never been a socialist country on the planet EVER!

And before you tell me about China, and the USSR, they are simply State-run capitalism. This is not socialism.

[redstateblues]

58. That's right. It will be a big plus in the GE.

I enjoy all the folks twisting themselves into pretzels try to convince each other that "Socialist" will not be toxic in the GE.

[nxylas]

65. It's lucky that nobody ever called Hillary a socialist

Oh wait....

[redstateblues]

79. I believe it was Bernie that called himself a Socialist

[nxylas]

83. I don't think it makes that much difference

Those who regard Bernie as unelectable seem to think that every Republican saying "Hillary...socialist...Hillary...socialist" on an endless loop for 6 months will make no difference, but that if the Koch brothers run a clip of Bernie saying "I would regard myself as a >klik< socialist" (the >klik< represents the qualifier "democratic" being edited out), then all the people who have been flocking in their tens of thousands to hear him speak will suddenly scream "OH MY GOD, WHAT WAS I THINKING?"

The thing is, though, everybody already knows that Bernie is a socialist, so I can't honestly see it making a difference, due to the timing. As in it's not 1954 any more.

Any candidate with a D after their name is going to get called a socialist. The fact that it happens to be true in this case is largely irrelevant. When did anybody ever care about the truth in a presidential campaign?

[NorthCarolina]

66. Of course he can, and anyone claiming he can't is simply

someone bloviating for the privileged class.

[Gamecock Lefty]

70. DanTex!

Stop Making Sense!!!

RAISE HILL 2016!

[dpatbrown]

71. missing something

Am I missing something? Why is Virginia going to decide the election? Thanks.

[WillyT]

72. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[zappaman]

74. "undoubtedly"

[Bobbie Jo]

76. Indubitably!

I always liked that word.

[RDANGELO]

77. Something else that looks good for Bernie

The largest groups of people who are undecided or unsure in the polls concerning him, are liberals and African Americans. This is obviously a case where people who would eventually vote for him, don't know enough about him.

[pnwmom]

80. Except doesn't he have to win the primary first? n/t

[Persondem]

81. Yeah, keep wishing ... 39% is not significant.

In any balanced state you will get 35-40% of voters who will vote for their party so this is his floor. Also more people hearing about Sanders will include many people who will be turned off by the socialist label as most voters do not dig deep into the real meaning and worth of democratic socialism. It's just an -ism that's bad.

A significant number for Bernie in VA would be 45%+ and a lead on the GOP-pers. As I said this is the floor.

[Babel_17]

84. The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle as applied to polling Sanders :)

it states that the more precisely the position of some particle is determined, the less precisely its momentum can be known, and vice versa.

These data points for Sanders, while great, can't (by definition) show his momentum, which is awesome.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

We can think of it as the Sanders corollary. lol

[carolinayellowdog]

94. VA as bellwether

Not sure why I can only see 18 of 93 replies, and worry that the other 75 say "all Virginians are evil Confederates who deserve to die, fuck 'em." But it has been very interesting-- and would have been encouraging, but for DU hatemongers-- to see us turn from a solid red state to a fairly solid blue state since I joined this site in 2002. Neither 2006 (Webb being the critical result that handed the Senate to Dems) nor 2008 (VA being the state that pushed Obama over the line) nor 2012 (holding solid for Obama when NC and IN reverted to Republicanism) had any positive result in terms of Virginians "getting no respect." If anything, the reverse.

And yet, here again it looks like we may be a bellwether as you say-- time will tell.