2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"I was a really staunch Clinton candidate (IA)
Supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders gather in the staging area before the Denison Independence Day Parade on Friday afternoon. (Photo: Kevin Hardy/The Register)
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/07/03/bernie-sanders-unite-democrats-presidential-campaign/29682335/
Snip: "I was a really staunch Clinton candidate. I'm a woman and I really want a woman to be president," Andrie said. "But she's not as strong a candidate as she was. She doesn't quite have the energy she had before. There's something lacking there. I haven't quite figured out what it is."
Andrie said she's also "really concerned because Hillary's not getting young people out. They're so discouraged because they wanted so much more from Obama than what he gave them." Sanders is the kind of candidate that can fire up the youth, she said.
Earlier in the day, after his event in Storm Lake that pulled in 140 people, Sanders told reporters that his campaign is "putting together a strong infrastructure which is going to give us a strong chance of winning Iowa."
A supporter in Denison holds a sign refering to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was active in the 1960s Civil Rights movement. (Photo: Kevin Hardy/The Register)
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)And every other demographic?
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)The polls that measured millenials were from late April. I'm sure there has been a huge shift. Plus, any poll that doesn't use cell phones is basically useless.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)She leads with millenials, women, men, blacks, whites, liberals, etc.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Paragons of accuracy.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Your interlocutor cited a poll demonstrating she is doing well in a demographic you are suggesting she isn't. Surely you can cite a poll that undermines her claim.
As an aside PPP has been applauded for its accuracy, your suggestion they aren't notwithstanding:
The top and bottom of the list are equally surprising. Two left-leaning Democratic pollsters top the list: Public Policy Polling, which nailed the election prediction if Florida goes for Obama, and the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, a weekly tracking poll.
http//www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11#ixzz3exKG6CVp
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)The perils of getting older...
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Hope you do as well, whatever it may be. Hope you treat yourself to something good to eat! We may disagree, but I don't mean it personally.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)There plenty of folks on DU claiming to be of the left that will tell you at every opportunity of the Democrats that are not of the left ... and when they are being particularly honest, they will tell you that they, themselves, are not Democrats.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Oh wait a minute, your list takes in most of the people. Amazing how people can always find a poll to support what they wish to believe. The poll I will believe will be conducted on election day.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)trends are more important than polls. But I need to get back to organizing for Bernie. Still more to be done and there is so much low-hanging fruit to harvest, that is is a waste of time to debate HRC die-hards. Let the best campaign win.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Not on major news networks and not on landlines. Most milennials do not get their news from MSM tv.
JI7
(89,281 posts)Younger people overall don't go on it.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)169 million distinct visits per month and 36 million user accounts. That includes international users, but that's not chicken scratch.
The Sanders reddit group has 56,488 members
The Hillary Clinton group has 313
Y'all post polls with sample sizes of less than 1000. I think reddit eclipses that by orders of magnitude especially when talking about under 50.
JI7
(89,281 posts)many websites which has a lot of users.
the fact is scientific polls show Hillary is leading among young people.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Most of them live and breathe Reddit.
MADem
(135,425 posts)PRETENDING to be a Millenial!!!
I've never once been polled on my cell phone, either!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)That goes to the old saw that the hot nineteen year old you are chatting with is a bald man in his fifties with a paunch instead of a stomach.
MADem
(135,425 posts)"Wanna go skinnydipping in the CEEE-ment pond???"
djean111
(14,255 posts)Saving up for college.
He introduced me to the Bernie subReddit, about 58,000 subscribers, lots of info on registering and voting, etc. Hillary has 303 subscribers. Like I have said elsewhere, Reddit does not dislike Hillary, they are just not interested because to them she is Wall Street, and Wall Street has not done them much good.
MADem
(135,425 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)I'll just trust what I see on Reddit, you trust your polls.
Neither of us was going to do anything like switch our support because of some polls or some (right now 56,484) subscribers to the subReddit for Bernie. Grandson and his also 20 YO friends (here in town) love Bernie and are now interested in Politics. Fun to watch!
MADem
(135,425 posts)DU said President Kucinich was a lock, or at least the nominee--I didn't believe DU back then, either!
Great discussion at this website, but I'm not taking my prognostications from the assembled pundits here...!
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)That's quite a lot of 50 year olds in cubicles.
MADem
(135,425 posts)but only for two more months. Then I will be a 60 year old cubicle dweller.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)If I can take it that long!
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Nt
MADem
(135,425 posts)Profound.
MADem
(135,425 posts)More than "one" of those pigs in that group....and I doubt they're young, either.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)so out of touch...
MADem
(135,425 posts)And nearly half of the users are from outside the USA....!
Teens are about eight percent of the total users.
The site is not the powerhouse the rabid fans want to think it is.
It's trolly and nasty and cliquish. It's full of angry white males who are furious that they can't gratuitously insult individuals anymore.
It's not the center of moral thought or progress in the USA or the world, much as some might wish.
Step back from the keyboard--it's not as important as you think it is!
JI7
(89,281 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)
and she is very disinterested in Hillary Clinton. It's not that she doesn't like her. She doesn't care.
She has no memory of Bill Clinton and his Presidency. The Clinton name does not carry the weight that it did with older generations.
She has nothing against Hillary Clinton, but she has heard nothing from her that would spark interest or support from my daughter. She's heard plenty from Sanders that excites her and makes her want to support him. I will take my daughter to hear all of the candidates that come to our state. It's good experience for her. She'll of course, make up her own mind.
And my daughter reads Reddit and gets her news from Reddit, Twitter and other online sources.
Anyone who suggests that Sanders Reddit 58,000 subscribers to Hillary's 303 subscribers--means nothing--doesn't understand Reddit or the significance of that site.
djean111
(14,255 posts)I think that, for millennials, the "political tribe" concept just does not exist. Don't know the ramifications, perhaps that means the 1% won, or something, but yeah, my grandson gets all of his news from Reddit and other online sources, too.
Report1212
(661 posts)But the people who are paying attention -- like NH and Iowa -- she's losing those groups.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)BOOM. Exactly!! The bigger the crowds, win a few early caucuses, and he's warp speed. There will be a massive shift in his numbers. Some people want to vote for him, they agree with him, but they keep hearing the tired meme that "he can't win." The same one we heard about Obama in 2008. Once he won some early caucuses and Edwards dropped out, Obama started racking up wins.
Once it becomes clear that if Sanders can beat the most formidable opponent in the race--the most well-known, the most money, the most insiders--he can beat anyone, even Jebba the Bush.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)bvar22
(39,909 posts)A few weeks ago, I believed that the best possible outcome would be for Bernie to pull Hillary to The Left (at least in campaign rhetoric....and it DID), but I didn't believe he could WIN.
I have changed my mind.
Bernie can WIN,
and I will be working harder to help him.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)He will be Dean screamed and red baited until next November. But I am getting more and more hopeful that people won't buy it after the Summer of Sanders. I hope the enthusiasm keeps up while the campaign gets boring and shitty.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)... Bernie Sanders will be our next President.
madokie
(51,076 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Have at it.
MADem
(135,425 posts)The figures are the figures--Iowa is a predominantly white state: http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/iowa/demographic.html
Omaha Steve
(99,800 posts)Classy.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Perhaps as a substitute for the lack of diversity in the crowd?
Omaha Steve
(99,800 posts)NEBR and IA fought for the North.
MADem
(135,425 posts)There's no real reason for that kind of behavior.
The state is not diverse, though; the demographic information at the link above proves that rather decisively. The entire state is sparsely populated, relatively speaking--it has about as many people in it as the city of Chicago, but it's a homogenous caucasian population, not diverse like Chicago.
Omaha Steve
(99,800 posts)50 plus years of marching by Bernie is a game changer on race.
MADem
(135,425 posts)But truth to tell, "What have you done for me lately?" is probably the question most will ask.
All politics IS local. Tip O'Neill had that figured out.
Omaha Steve
(99,800 posts)Will be answered next year.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Sounds a bit condescending to me. Are you really getting that nervous about Bernie?
MADem
(135,425 posts)He's fun to listen to, but he's not perceived as viable. I don't think that will change much.
YMMV and probably does--nothing wrong with that, but don't expect me to modulate my POV to suit you.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)DhhD
(4,695 posts)renewal of the American Dream, as in, MLK's, "I have a dream ......". Bernie Sanders is our hope for the renewal of democracy and fair treatment in America. In my opinion, We the People have become the whipping boy of the TBTFBC-To Big To Fail Banking Complex.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)nt
MADem
(135,425 posts)you're playing the "race card" when you note that the population of Ghana is largely Black.
So....big FAIL, there...
YoungDemCA
(5,714 posts)A turn of phrase invented by right-wingers who didn't like being called out on their racism.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Using race as a political football.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Throw lots of crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks? Pathetic.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Each and every supporter who bothered to show up at a rally, to donate, to talk Bernie up has boosted his actual chances by simply letting other people know they're not alone, that other people also like him.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)People need to realize that they, by their support, are leading the way for others. Facebook likes and tweets, youtube views, that matters too because they are quantitative participation. So even if you don't have a single follower, start participating in social media because it will be counted for news articles and on tv. And going to events, that is the most visible way to support him. People are really doing a great job.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)I signed up for Twitter specifically to follow him and boost his numbers. Now I also followed another 29 or so accounts of various sorts of interest, but I'm not tweeting, and have no real plans to.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)No need to make original ones. You can also tweet articles or pictures around the web and use his twitter handle or a hashtag like #FeeltheBern. They measure hashtag trends and such.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Go Bernie!!!
4dsc
(5,787 posts)Until Hillary comes clean and is more specific about her plans the worse it gets for her. Ambiguity will not win this election.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)That's why there is fire for Bernie and not as much so for other more establishment candidates.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Obama paved the way for Bernie Sanders. This is the only time in modern history that a candidate like him has a shot.
Obama was a sell-out yes, but he did pave the way for reform...
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)I admittedly used to like HRC and thought she was the best chance ever for a female President.
But...over the years, like the person in the article said, something has changed...I think it's the money. We got so royaly screwed by Wall Street and the Banksters (we still are) and I doubt she's going to even mention much regulation of them. My gut also tells me that she's just a weather-vane, turning which ever way the wind blows. And I swear if it's between her and Jebbie, he will win. There is Bush burn out but I think there is more Clinton burn out (I've got 4 single/divorced/widowed neighbor ladies that have already expressed how they "cannot stand the woman" and would never vote for her, ever).
Bernie has spent a lifetime, working for the 99%...his message has been consistent, honest and authentic.
I will work to make him President.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)If it's between her and Jebbie, he will win.
Yet she handily beats him in all published polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html
This is the point where my interlocutor tells me the polls are meaningless because it's early so I should ignore them and I should rely on the opinion of a random internet poster because of a feeling in his or her gut.
PADemD
(4,482 posts)If Hillary polls less than 50 per cent in Iowa, Bernie can win. Hillary is trending down, and Bernie is trending up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)And even in the unlikely event Senator Sanders wins IA and even NH his campaign eventually peters out because he has demonstrated little ability to attract African American, Latino, and Asian Democrats who will account for four out of every ten Democratic primary voters.
Stainless
(718 posts)African Americans will come around when they become better informed of the facts. Latino's and Asian's will also come around when they realize that Bernie is exactly what this country needs and that he has been consistent in his vision for many years now.
I was a Hillary supporter until I realized that she is merely a corporatist tool. Her DNC credentials are not what this country needs. The only serious challenge to the 1% is Bernie Sanders. Hillary doesn't have any inclination to stand with the 99% and she never will.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)The Clintons have been assiduously courting African Americans and Latinos for over forty years since they were field organizers in south Texas for George McGovern in his 1972 presidential campaign. Many Latinos look at Hillary Clinton with something approaching veneration. Toni Morrison referred to Bill Clinton as the "first black president."
Such bonds aren't easily shaken and certainly aren't upset over night and I look forward to that proposition being tested as the campaign goes into the more heterogeneous states.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Seems like the Clinton camp is having conniptions.
appalachiablue
(41,184 posts)establishment candidates, their banker and corp. allies and what's happened to the country as a result. This will be the pivotal election for the future of the US.
Go Bernie!
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)hated that in 2008, when I was a Hillary supporters, and I still hate it.
In any event, my 20 YO grandson is a devout Redditor, he loves Bernie, the Bernie subReddit has about 58,000 subscribers and is really well organized. Hillary's subReddit has 303 subscribers. Grandson says they don't hate Hillary or anything like that - she just represents business as usual. They love what Bernie has to say. Plain and simple.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)philosophies or plans .
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)with Sen Sanders because she agrees with him on social issues but agrees with the republicans on economic issues, war, foreign policy, fracking, Trade Agreements, NSA domestic spying. The people are hungry for a candidate with integrity.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)In basketball it refers to a best of seven series where the eventual winner lets the loser win one game to maintain a semblance of dignity...
That's where us supporters of Madame Secretary are now , leaning toward a modicum of charity.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)It's what we want!
We will accept no substitutes.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Bernie is also the heroic candidate, the patriotic candidate and the honest candidate.
Bernie is the single candidate that I will consider.
GeorgeGist
(25,326 posts)although I am perplexed at the meaning of "Clinton candidate"
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Once bought, an honest politician stays bought. And Wall Street has invested millions in Hillary.
CANDO
(2,068 posts)And isn't her hubby a hedge fund manager? Mr Mezvinski
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Babel_17
(5,400 posts)HRC looked good in 2007/2008 partly because she appeared fired up to roll back the damage done by the incompetency and lunacy of the Bush administration. Conditions have evolved, and times have changed, and so the question for our party is "Where do we go now from here?".
Framed in a perspective that lacks the struggle to defeat the Bush legacy's champions, McCain and Palin, the HRC campaign has to focus on how it will improve on what President Obama's administration has accomplished. And when you frame it like that, when the perspective shows Clinton's vision on one side, and Sanders vision on the other, the younger voters will run towards Sanders. Progressives who felt pushed to the side will choose Sanders. People who are tired of Democrats giving in to big money will tend to choose Sanders.
The enthusiastic Sanders voters who've donated time and/or money, or who talk up the Sanders campaign on social media, who go to rallies, are not in play. HRC can't sway that block of voters. Every block of voters that support other candidates is in play to be picked up by Sanders. Even women voters show a sharp downturn in support for HRC.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2259
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/04/bernie_sanders_pulls_closer_to_hillary_in_polls_spends_long_weekend_in_iowa.html
Sanders has the solid blocks of support to build on. This become more obvious every day, and with lots of photos and video to demonstrate it. People read the Sanders platform and like it. They see his support and think it looks like the real deal.
It's the real deal that people are looking for, in these very hard times.