Updated Iowa Caucus poll due tomorrow...

[brooklynite]

Results of an Iowa poll of likely Democratic Caucus participants on possible presidential candidates will be available on Thursday, July 2, at 6 a.m. -- Quinnipiac Polling Institute

Their May Poll had Clinton at 60%/Sanders at 15%

[Beagle One]

1. If Sanders jumps from 15%, do not be surprised.

It still shows the current trend *AND* thoughts about the candidates itself.

[cyberswede]

2. I wonder if Sanders will attract new caucus-goers?

Obama definitely did in our precinct.

[randys1]

3. I wonder why Iowa gets any attention at all.

[Adrahil]

4. I expect Bernie to poll in the mid-20's. Maybe low 30's if he's lucky.

I think his support will top out at around 30% give or take.

[AgingAmerican]

11. His numbers doubled

And his campaign just started!

[DCBob]

5. I will say Hillary 55 Bernie 18 Biden 15.

[AgingAmerican]

12. 52% Hillary, 33% Bernie

You can't stop the truth.

[DCBob]

13. I was pretty close. I didnt think Bernie would take most of Biden's.

Hillary's numbers are firm and good enough to win.

[morningfog]

14. You were off by 15 points, you weren't close.

[DCBob]

20. I was talking about the Hillary and non-Hillary numbers.

[AgingAmerican]

16. Bernies numbers are almost double what you predicted

And Hillary's are dropping. This is 8 months out from the first primary. He is gaining 2% - 3% per week, and filling huge stadiums.

If he is filling gigantic stadiums this early in the campaign, where will he be in 8 months?

Berniemania!!

[Beagle One]

6. Sanders makes it interesting. 33%.

Like I said, a significant jump from last month's polls.

National polls means bupkis to me. I'm interested in state polls. Like the Quinnipiac polls from today.

Glad to see all of you being wrong.


July 2, 2015 - Sanders Gains On Clinton In Iowa Dem Caucus

Source: Quinnipiac Polling Institute

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner 52 - 33 percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent.

This compares to a 60 - 15 percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

(thanks again, brooklynite for delivering wonderful news)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Your analysis would make sense if homogeneous Iowa and New Hampshire

National polls means bupkis to me. I'm interested in state polls. Like the Quinnipiac polls from today. [

Your analysis would make sense if homogeneous Iowa and New Hampshire were proxy states for a heterogeneous nation, ergo:

Clinton continues to be dominant nationally with every segment of the Democratic electorate- she's over 60% with liberals, moderates, women, men, Hispanics, whites, and voters in every age group and she's polling at 83% with African Americans. The lack of racial diversity in New Hampshire is one reason Sanders is coming closer to her there given her dominance with black voters nationally.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/walker-bush-rubio-lead-gop-field-clinton-still-dominant.html

There's a reason the last six presidents have won South Carolina and the last three presidents have lost New Hampshire.

Conclusion- Homogeneous Iowa and New Hampshire are poor predictors of electoral success.

[Robbins]

8. Very rich

Obama winning iowa meant nothing?

I see memo of Hillary supporters will be iowa and NH are ilrelvent even though she won NH in 2008.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I am an empiricist

Iowa and New Hampshire are homogeneous states with homogeneous electorates and are not indicative of how any candidate will do in an heterogeneous nation with a heterogeneous electorate.

Iowa was a seminal moment in Barack Obama's campaign, He demonstrated that he could win with a homogeneous electorate and that indicated to many African Americans that he had substantial crossover appeal and could be a credible candidate within the broader heterogeneous electorate. Before the primaries began Hillary Clinton had substantial support in the African American community. Once Barack Obama proved to be a credible candidate that support vanquished. Given the closeness of the race if she could have even mitigated her losses among African Americans she could have won the election.

National polling shows Bernie Sanders losing among African Americans, Latinos, and Asians by margins of 7-1, 8-1, , et cetera , and if he doesn't reverse that his chances of winning the nomination are slim. These facts don't assert themselves in Iowa or New Hampshire because there are relatively few members of those groups in iowa and New Hampshire.

Again:

Clinton continues to be dominant nationally with every segment of the Democratic electorate- she's over 60% with liberals, moderates, women, men, Hispanics, whites, and voters in every age group and she's polling at 83% with African Americans. The lack of racial diversity in New Hampshire is one reason Sanders is coming closer to her there given her dominance with black voters nationally.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/walker-bush-rubio-lead-gop-field-clinton-still-dominant.html

I would slightly rephrase that:



The lack of racial diversity in New Hampshire and Iowa is one reason Sanders is coming closer to her there given her dominance with black voters, Latino voters, and Asian voters nationally.

[morningfog]

15. Iowa and NH are proxy states for states in which Sanders has a presence.

We'll see as he turns his attention south and west how well he is received there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Would you concede they are homogeneous states

Would you concede they have homogeneous electorates that aren't representative of the broader Democratic primary electorate which is approximately forty percent people of color:

[morningfog]

18. Of course I am not going to dispute the demographics.

What I don't concede is that they are, because of their homogeneity, not representative of how the broader Democratic electorate will receive Sanders.

He started as a relative unknown in Iowa, and to a lesser extent in NH. What we will learn when he turns his attention to SC and NV, and as those residents learn more about him, is whether his message is received in similar fashion. I strongly suspect that it will. When Democratic voters get to know him, they like him. I simply don't see anything in to support an inference that Democratic persons of color don't support him because of who he is or because of his positions or because of his message. I think it far more likely that he just isn't known yet.

He's being smart. Put a strong foundation in place and then build on it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. If you get into the internals of the nat'l polls you can see he is doing well among white voters.

If you get into the internals of the nat'l polls you can see Senator Sanders is doing well among white voters, especially upper middle class white voters and not doing well at all among people of color... Now, you can attribute that to name recognition and lord knows that argument has been beat to death on this board...

I guess we will get our answer soon as the heterogeneous South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus come right on the heels of the homogeneous Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.

I understand the difference between many, most, and all and with that understanding I will argue that the Clintons are popular figures among many African Americans and Latinos and that popularity will not be shaken and will prove determinative in the primaries...

I would literally bet the house on it.

[AgingAmerican]

10. Bernies support has doubled in Iowa since may

Thanks for shedding light on that fact!

Feeeeel the Berrrrn!