It occurred to me that this election may well turn on possible events this summer:

[hedgehog]

- a bad hurricane and the quality of Federal response

- whatever happens in Syria

- what happens to the economy in the Eurozone

- a major scandal in the Catholic Church, especially among American clerics

[leveymg]

1. If the Dow takes a dive, or there's a double-dip, or Israel bombs Iran . . .

any of these could lead to a far closer race than most of us seem to expect.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

2. I expect a close race, period! I never thought it would be anything but close.

[leveymg]

3. I don't, unless something changes or there's an unforeseen calamity.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Well, the latest numbers on the economy aren't good. I'm keeping my fingers cross that this

is just a blip.

[summerschild]

4. The Dow will drop - the House Republicans will see to it by sabotaging the debt ceiling approval.

[hedgehog]

6. that could work for us -

if we can pull back the curtain to show up the Republicans choosing party over country!

[JoePhilly]

11. It won't stay down.

Its had a small pull back each summer since Obama took office. If its above 12k in August, Obama is fine. It should be about 12,700 by November.

UE should be under 8% by then as well.

I also think Obama is holding some cards for October.

The GOP needs the country to collapse ... and it is not going to happen.

[monmouth]

5. Anne Rmoney's sister-wives are tired of being kept behind the curtain...n/t

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. How would a hypothetical Catholic Church scandal (isn't there already a long-standing one)

affect the race?

Hurricane? Unless you think that President Obama is as *competent* as Bush was, I wouldn't worry.

Syria? How exactly might what is going on there affect the race? Foreign policy is not going to play in the Republican's favor this year IMHO and they just complain about everything he does no matter what it is. They wanted him in Libya but then they started talking about withholding funds and/or impeaching him when he did.

The only one of those things that could really affect the race is the economy IMHO, which could become problematic if things get worse in Europe and it bleeds into our economy. Of course, things could always get better too, so.............

[hedgehog]

8. Right now Dolan is leading a push to get Catholics to vote for Romney

If he tips the vote a few percent in the right districts, he could tip the election. If he's hit with a scandal, it may cut his influence.

I'm hoping Obama has had time to shake up FEMA. ( I'm hoping even more we don't get a chance to find out!)

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. Yet Catholics have an issue with the Romney-backed Ryan Budget

As far as FEMA is concerned, I would like to think that President Obama chose somebody significantly more qualified than "Brownie" was. I believe that we've had a few natural disasters that FEMA had to handle since President Obama took office and AFAIK they were handled fine, weren't they (that might be why I don't remember hearing about them)?

[BlueIris]

12. I can't picture any of those events affecting our election.

I can foresee at least one major legal event doing a lot of damage.