2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCBS News/NY Times poll: Romney leads Obama
Posted? I looked.
CBS News/NY Times [Romney +3]
Romney - 46
Obama - 43
President Obama Job Approval [Approve +2]
Approve - 50
Disapprove - 48
Complete breakdown of issues (PDF)
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/CBSNYTPoll_051412.pdf
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Rmoney leads with women voters?
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)toward Romney, it really makes not sense. I would think women
would be more sympathetic to the cause. Can't believe that many
could have swung to Doofus.
Tom Poll Master
(26 posts)the question:
President Obama says that same-sex couples should be able to get married. Do you agree with the president? Or disagree?
52% agree and 42% disagree. See my post in Immizen.com with the complete chart.
DJ13
(23,671 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)As stated right in the methodology, it caused significant issues in getting responses. It has massive selection bias, and really should not be considered a "normal" poll.
liberal N proud
(60,351 posts)My only thought is that they have to make it sound like the race is close so they can steal a state or two.
They did it before, and know how.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)fraud software from Jeb. At least crazy asses Ricky and Noot, don't strike me as voting machine
fraudsters.
cindyperry2010
(846 posts)delegate map and President Obama is beating that ass GO VOTE
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)won the EC. Then, they certainly would push for EC reform.
BeyondGeography
(39,393 posts)I'll take the approval number.
cindyperry2010
(846 posts)this is the page with real clear politics electoral college delegate projections
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
this is huffingtonpost projections
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
this is http://electoral-vote.com/
and this is npr's
http://www.npr.org/2012/04/24/150488863/the-road-to-270-predict-the-2012-presidential-race
cnn's
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/electoral-map.html
so keep track and go vote
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)reasons. This sucks.
I thought the ass-holey bullying would be the end of MR
MH1
(17,608 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)I can't see ANY situation where Obama is at 50 approval and yet is losing to Romney, let alone at 43% and behind among WOMEN too.
Incumbents usually OUTPERFORM their approval ratings by a few points, they don't underperform by 7, that's almost impossible.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)There is selection bias present, which the pollster admits in the methodology.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)and again we don't elect Presidents by national popular vote.
ilikeitthatway
(143 posts)Do we have a layout of the electoral college, and where Obama current leads at the moment with each key state?
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Skrewdriver
(10 posts)I knew his stance on gay marriage would back fire on him. And that poll saying 51% of Americans agree with his stance of gay marriage is not jiving with majority of the polls out there. Which is why I wish he would've waited until his 2nd term to endorse gay marriage. Its not worth losing the election to Romney who will just take all the credit for all the hard work Obama has done. I live in Fl and folks at work are saying they aren't going to vote for Obama because of his stance on gay marriage. Some of them who voted for him in 08 are saying they will just stay home. I'm just so angry right now!!
still_one
(92,492 posts)won't now because he supports civil rights, when is the right time for someone to stand-up for something that is right?
The right time is always NOW
It will never happen if it keeps getting put off
As far as those who won't vote for Obama because of this, they may reap the consequences of their actions, and if their small minds don't remember that it was because of republican policies in the last 20 years that have brought this country to its knees, then I wish them the worst
Skrewdriver
(10 posts)Its damn near political suicide. Is it worth losing the election, when Obama would've endorsed gay marriage during his 2nd term anyway? Is it worth it for Mittens to potentially take credit for all of Obama's hard work and to slam the door shut on all the progress we've made and the teabaggers to win in Nov? Hell no, imo, its not worth it during the general election, Obama could be Kerry 2.0 over this.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)still_one
(92,492 posts)decided to speak up. By then it was already ingrained.
As for you assessment that it is political suicide, it isn't.
Of course that was the same argument made by many Democrats in Congress voting for the IWR, that it would be political suicide NOT to vote for it.
After a million dead, and the continued loss of Democratic influence, perhaps it is about time they took a position
What this is about is a war against, women, gays, civil rights, social security, medicare, and the economy.
Gore was weakly defended a "women's right to choose". In the last twenty years the Democrats have not stood up for issues that were the foundation of the party
It is about time they did.
I hear your point, but there are too many examples in the last twenty years where the Democrats took the "easy" path, and look where we are today.
politicasista
(14,128 posts)than people here ever will.
Very proud of our classy and respectful president that continues to respect Dems, Liberals, and appreciate their efforts as surrogates, instead of stomping all over them and throwing them under the bus.
Thank you President Obama for taking the high road instead of eating our own.
still_one
(92,492 posts)The Obama campaign is pushing back hard against a New York Times/CBS poll that showed Mitt Romney with advantage with women and reported that voters overwhelmingly believed President Obama backed gay marriage last week for political reasons.
"We can't put the methodology of that poll aside," deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter told MSNBC's Chuck Todd. "It is a biased sample."
"Aside from being outlier, CBS/NYT poll used weird methodology -- same voters as last month, reached fewer of them, more IDed as GOP," campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said on Twitter Monday.
At the heart of the dispute is the fact that the poll used a 'panel-back survey' polling a group of voters who have already been interviewed in previous polls. In this case, the drawback is that 852 registered voters were in interviewed last month, and just 562 agreed to be reinterviewed by the pollster.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/05/team-obama-nytcbs-poll-used-biased-sample-123487.html
Response to Skrewdriver (Reply #21)
politicasista This message was self-deleted by its author.
Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)Polls don't determine what is morally right and Obama did not only the right thing morally but also the politically smart move.
I feel your pain. Get over it.
Skrewdriver
(10 posts)Obama is now losing in every polls since his endorsement of gay marriage, when just a week before he was winning handedly. I'm not getting over anything, this election is too important. When president Mittens is in the White House reversing everything Obama has done and all the progress we've made, lets see how quickly you get over it.
Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)I really don't see that as a loser.
Beating Mitt Romney is going to be a very tough job and our president has chosen to "man up". I'm sorry you're afraid he's too weak to take the challenge head-on but you really don't give him nearly enough credit.
I understand your "concern". But don't worry-he'll see it through without the bigots.
Skrewdriver
(10 posts)believe that usaservey poll saying 51% of Americans agree with Obama on gay marriage?lol I have a bridge to sell you!! I hate to say it, but usaservey is lying, they just want to boost the morale of the pro-gay community. The reason I know that poll is a lie, is because every time gay marriage is placed on the ballot it is struck down by majority of voters. Again, if majority of Americans favored gay marriage, why has Obama sunk deep in the polls since his gay marriage endorsement, when just a week earlier he was beating Mittens handedly? I don't think Obama is weak, your words not mine. A weak black man would never run for president considering all the hate and death threats against him among many other reason I don't think he is weak. He's pretty brave actually, braver than Bush and Clinton, because he is willing to lose an election because of something he believes in. And you are naive if you think there aren't bigots in the democratic party, liberals are a small percentage of the democratic party and even libs can be bigots. Those reagan democrats, Christian latinos, blacks and working class whites will be much needed in Nov, especially in FL, NC and Va. If high and mighty libs, think they are just going to bash and slam Christians who lean democratic and think they will come back easily into the fold, they've got another thing coming.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)Fly away back to Freeperville, troll.
Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)His lead in Rasmussen is where it was before and this poll is a highly dubious, selective sample.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)And yes, my headline needed all CAPS. PLEASE calm down and read the following...
This is not a typical network poll. This poll only called back respondents who took the last CBS poll, which had Obama and Romney tied. In theory, it works - though, I still think you need a random sample every new poll to make sure you're not focusing on an abnormally large number of Romney/Obama supporters than actually exist. It's why most networks, especially the closer we get to the election, will release multiple polls within a month so they have a broader, larger sample size to correct potential errors in their last polls.
Beyond that, as we see in this case, not everyone who took the poll last go around will take it again. In the last CBS poll, 852 registered voters took their poll. Of those same voters who took the poll last month, only 562 took it this go around. That's only 65% of the original poll takers. 562 people is a very, very small sample size for a national poll. Every other national poll will have at least 800 people as their sample size.
This poll should not be taken seriously and shame on CBS for doing it.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)bad polls
mac56
(17,575 posts)The MSM wants a horse race, and by god they're gonna have a horse race.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)I'm about to have a heart attack here!
Ex-Pat Pats Fan
(36 posts)The only poll that counts is the one on the first Tuesday in November.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,452 posts)We haven't even had the conventions or debates yet and anybody swayed by President Obama's announcement of support of marriage equality probably was pretty soft in their support of him anyway if they're going to let a single issue like that swing them over to Romney.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)and I don't see any compelling reason why that would happen.
Here Is rule.Any poll that has Obama lower than His approval Is BS.Just like Gallup having Obama at 49 percent approvol and getting
only 45 percent of the vote against Romney.
2004 showed If people approve of president they will vote for him.
the republican biased usatoday Gallup poll Is trying to claim Romney's favorbilty Is going up.Seriously the bullying story and his
favorabilty goes up?
Romney up by 2 among women?Thst Is BS If I ever saw It.
What Is purpose of these bad polls?Very simple.The MSM needs a horserace.They need people to think Romney could win.They are trying to encourage Republicans and disencourage democrats.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)if they didn't push back, so they pushed back on what is clearly flawed methodology. The panel backs oversampled Republicans and undersampled independents.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)It is bad poll and not a fresh sample. Makes NYT and CBS look bad and they don't usually do such sloppy polling.