2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe GOP’s Impending Electoral College Meltdown
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/05/03/michael-tomasky-the-gop-s-impending-electoral-college-meltdown.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Fpolitics+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Politics%29Michael Tomasky: The GOPs Impending Electoral College Meltdown
by Michael Tomasky May 3, 2012 5:45 AM EDT
Only six months till November, and the Electoral College is looking like Barack Obamas best friend. Has the Republican Party already blown its chances?
snip//
Obama leads in nine of the 11 states. Romney leads only in two, and he leads in the two whose mere presence on a list of swing states suggests trouble for himArizona and Missouri. Romneys lead in those states is small (3.2 percent in the former, 3.0 in the latter). Of the nine states in which Obama leads, he is ahead by outside your typical three- or four-point margin of error in four: Colorado (9.5 percent), Nevada (6.7 percent), Pennsylvania (6 percent), and Ohio (5.3 percent). Obviously it would be premature to say that Obama is certain to win those states. But given these leads, lets just give him those states 53 combined electoral votes for the sake of argument.
As youve already figured out, 227 plus 53 equals 280, which means Obama wins (270 needed). Now heres whats really interesting about this hypothetical. Look at the list of states Obama does not need to win under this scenario: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia. Thats 63 electoral votes he can give away, from three states (all of them but Iowa) that political journalists are always insisting are crucial to Obamas hopes. And from four states he carried in 2008. Just think of it. Its election night. The cable nets call Virginia for Romney. And North Carolina! Obama is doomed, doomed! Then he winsand in fact, if he manages to eke out Florida, wins easily, even after dropping those two must-win states. Put another way: There appear to be lots of ways for Obama to get to 270 losing either Ohio or Florida. But there appear to be almost no plausible ways for Romney to get to 270 without winning both of them, and one or two major swing states besides, states where he is behind right now.
So, two questions: first, how did the electoral map come to favor Democrats? And second, what are the implications for the kind of race were going to see?
On the first question, we know all about the demographic changes of recent years, identified most comprehensively by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis. But theres more to the story than that. Demography didnt have to be destiny. If the Republican Party of the last few years hadnt done everything it could possibly imagine do to alienate Latinos, new-economy professionals, and young people, the party would have remained competitive in Colorado (which, by the way, doesnt really seem like much of a swing state to me) and some Great Lakes-Rust Belt states. That party would have easily maintained its historic advantage in Virginia and North Carolina. But the Republicans chose not to be that party. They decided to be the hate-and-anger party, and they veritably shoved states like those I just mentioned into the Democratic column. The GOP message has been: If youre gonna let all those funny-talking brown people and wine-sipping brainiacs in your states, then we dont want you voting for us anyway!
And as to the kind of campaign we can expect: Id say the most negative in history. Barring some huge catastrophe, the only way a not-well-liked candidate like Romney can make up five to seven points in expensive-market states is through massive doses of attack ads, both from his campaign and from the various Super PACs, which may spend a combined $600 million or moresolely on negative ads and chiefly in six or eight states. Hate and anger arent going anywhere.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)was the target of nonstop attacks, even a vote for impeachment.
Say, whatever happened to Bill Clinton's effort to win a second term, anyway?
TheDebbieDee
(11,119 posts)ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)were a daily occurrence BEFORE the election.
barbtries
(28,818 posts)the commentator on NPR last week insisted that the general election would be won by the narrowest of margins. why are they lying on NPR?
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)SkyDaddy7
(6,045 posts)Just wait until the Right Wing Super PACS spend a BILLON DOLLARS in those 8-11 swing states...Obama will be very lucky to win!
Articles like this cause people to think this election is in the bag for Obama & that is very dangerous!
CrispyQ
(36,557 posts)barbtries
(28,818 posts)i think it's a self fulfilling prophecy, or what the right wing media (and here i include NPR, sadly) hopes will work that way. facts schmacts. having said that, i will continue to guard against complacency and do what i am able to help the president win.
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)SkyDaddy7
(6,045 posts)Far too many people think Obama will simply breeze into a second term while forgetting the Right has several Super PACS willing to spend any amount to win! The Koch Bros alone have pledged $500 MILLION and more if needed & that is only ONE of several big Right Wing Super PACs with hundreds of millions each!
The real threat is congressional races where Super PAC money can literally buy seats in congress unlike the Presidency where it is a bit harder. Super PAC money in Congressional races really scares me!
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Just looked it up, and he's worth 61 Billion. I'm pretty sure his politics are more in line with ours -could he be a dark horse superpac donor?
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)It's possible to win the popular vote by a narrow margin and romp in the electoral college. Obama winning, say, Florida by 0.5% still gives him all the marbles.
lastlib
(23,366 posts)...ESPECIALLY if you have the Supreme Court to help you!
And you can make the popular vote closer by stealing votes with electronic voting machines that have no paper trail. TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE CRITICAL, FOLKS!!!
Orrex
(63,263 posts)I was driving home yesterday when that aired. The commentator was so bad that even the ordinarily pro-horse-race Robert Siegel noted that Romney would effectively have to "run the table" of the contested states in order to win, which the commentator grudgingly admitted was correct.
Of course, Siegel then went on to predict that it will once again come down to Florida in the wee hours of the morning...
They probably shied away from a frank and honest assessment of Obama's statistical strength in this regard because, as always, they're afraid of accusation of liberal bias and because, as always, it's in the media's interest to preserve the "contest" story down to the wire.
mojitojoe
(94 posts)...but it's still early.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)marble falls
(57,479 posts)I think the President will win and Grover's backing the wrong team. The House and a couple of Senators is the prize and I think the President will have a more friendly Congress. The coat-tails will be very important this November.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)n/t
liberal N proud
(60,352 posts)Kennah
(14,352 posts)... what if they steal, and people object.
They aren't just going to say, "Parley", and the GOP isn't just going to respond, "Our bad, let's have a 'Do Over'".
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)Suppression, voting restrictions, etc...they're doing it fast and furiously, and passing these laws ASAP before November. It's not even subtle.
LonePirate
(13,437 posts)The GOP of today will have no path to victory.
And North Carolina's becoming swingier.
You simply cannot win nationally by carrying only older white males, conservatives, evangelicals. 2010 was their last hurrah. That being said, we've got work to do.
mucifer
(23,609 posts)in Florida and Ohio.
tanyev
(42,669 posts)You know, like Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann. Go for it, Mittens!
CanonRay
(14,141 posts)that Rmoney will have a million Mormons on a holy crusade of phone banks and door to door contact, combined with untold millions of advertising, all negative. If you think this doesn't spell trouble, think Prop 8 in California, the test run for the election.
cindyperry2010
(846 posts)already has the president at 253 in the electoral college delegate count
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)is how it might govern spending. Obama's in a position to concentrate nearly all his campaign funds in a handful of states; really, he can spend nearly the whole warchest in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. Romney, by contrast, is going to have to spread out all over the map; in fact, he can even take OH, FL, VA, and NC and still lose (though I doubt that will happen).
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)sellitman
(11,610 posts)Or his clones. That's what we really need to worry about. Who is in charge of the ballots? Polls be damned because it who counts the vote that really matters.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)jenmito
(37,326 posts)Kablooie
(18,646 posts)jenmito
(37,326 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)the southern conservative enclaves. At worst, Virginia is purple now--and I think with any decent effort Obama wins it and probably Florida too, regardless of whether Rubio is the nominee. Ohio is the only question mark, and even if Romney wins it he doesn't win the election without Florida.