NOTE:......FACT BASED..conclusions on Comey, Voter suppression Russia effect

[uponit7771]

Comey effect... NET 4% sing to Benedict Donald around same time as memo

- http://www.mediaite.com/online/nate-silver-clinton-wouldve-almost-certainly-become-president-if-not-for-comeys-letter/

Effects of voter suppression ... net 1.2% swing to Benedict Donald overall

- http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2668239

Effect of Russia on tampering with voting machines and DNC hacking.

- This is the thing Obama wanted to protect with bipartisanship and I think this is going to be less tangible but there's no doubt the effect wasn't positive for Clinton... (no data given)

No data as of yet for Russia effect on voting machines and DNC hacking

I don't see any other strong temporal data on any other factors, there could be but the aforementioned coralations are pretty tight with drops in aggregated poll numbers for Clinton.

Your take?

tia

[triron]

1. Could be fairly accurate.

4% for Comey letter may be a little high; at least 2% though. Russian effect at least the same not even counting machine tampering. Voter disenfranchisement
significant in most swing states. Without all that I give HRC an 6-10% popular vote advantage.

[uponit7771]

3. I agree even half of 4℅ is still accurate

[libtodeath]

2. A coup in other words.

[ffr]

4. Yup, a coup that it'll be especially difficult to ever recover from.

Installment of the worst possible candidate just when America needs a strong leader to make the tough choices that, of the two candidates, only Hillary Clinton could have made.

[dionysus]

5. I don't see them getting to the actual votes... nor simply swinging ALL those

States to trump. They wouldn't have given him a tiny margin of victory that would bring recounts into play, nor would they swing too many states and make it look obvious.

Occams razor applies here.

Comey's douchebaggery, the release of emails which the russians DID hack, plus the fact she didn't pump up enough voters outside the base, added up to the outcome.

I still contend this should have been an epic blowout. Even if you don't like hillary, liking someone isn't a requirement for voting for them... i'd have sworn there'd be so many rethugs and independants that would swallow their pride and vote hillary, knowing what a disaster he'd be for the country.

[mythology]

6. I think Silver is right

Effectively the election for President turned on the second Comey announcement. That could have been avoided if Clinton never had that stupid email server in the first place.

But that doesn't provide us with a solution for the down ticket races.

[uponit7771]

7. It would have been something else... I don't believe for a second that anyone else would've won

[uponit7771]

8. Kicking this...seeing a ton of "If Hillary did this" analysis as if there was no Russian hacking DNC

[oasis]

9. Comey, Putin were large players period. Prediction: Best selling

books about the 2016 election theft will be out by spring with authors hitting the talk show circuit.

Benedict Donald will be in a frenzy, tweeting his ass off.