Democrats Have Mixed Feelings on 2020 Field

[geek tragedy]

On one hand they say they want a younger candidate, one who's never run for President. 57% of Democrats say they want their candidate to be under the age of 60, and 77% say they want their candidate to be under the age of 70. Only 8% actually want a candidate who's in their 70s, with another 15% expressing no opinion in regards to the age of their candidate.

Beyond wanting a younger candidate, only 25% of Democrats say they want their candidate in 2020 to be someone who has run for President before. 41% would prefer someone who's never run before, and 34% say they're not sure one way or the other.

But despite saying that they generically want a younger candidate who hasn't run for President before, the top 2 choices of Democrats for 2020 at this very early stage are...people in their 70s who have run for President before.

Joe Biden leads the way for Democrats with 31% to 24% for Bernie Sanders, and 16% for Elizabeth Warren. They're the only folks we tested with meaningful support for the nomination at this point. Cory Booker gets 4%, Al Franken and Kirsten Gillibrand each get 3%, Sherrod Brown and Andrew Cuomo each get 2%, and Julian Castro gets less than 1%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/12/democrats-have-mixed-feelings-on-2020-field.html

My two cents: Booker and Gillibrand will have a much easier time getting greater name recognition than Sanders, Biden and Warren will in getting younger.

[vi5]

1. I would love to see Franken get a bigger platform..

I'd love for him to run for president, but hell I'm not sure why he's not more of a go-to guy for press, media, events, and all sorts of other stuff. He's funny, charming, intelligent and well versed on the issues and on the correct side of all the issues Dems need to be focused on.

[ZoomBubba]

2. I doubt it will be any of those people ...

... especially when it comes to Biden, who is going to be 78 and Bernie, who is going to be close to 80. It doesn't disqualify them, but it doesn't exactly scream certainty as far as lasting a full eight years.

[geek tragedy]

3. Booker (51 years old, good speaker) seems like a good value if one is placing bets. nt

[meadowlark5]

5. I like Booker

But will the masses vote for a black man again, especially after 4yrs of the racist presidency of Trump to make racism "acceptable" to practice again.

[geek tragedy]

6. Obama's at 59% approval, Trump is at 41%, and it's only going to go down from there.

Clinton is the one who lost, not Obama.

[meadowlark5]

9. Trump has an approval rating of 41%

I thought it was lower than that. Who are these people?

[geek tragedy]

14. Obama's was at 68% at this point in 2008, nt

[meadowlark5]

15. Well that's understandable

I guess 41% is the baseline of deplorables that live in this country.

[geek tragedy]

18. Conservative Republicans like what they're seeing from him thus far.

He's Paul Ryan on policy.

But, those numbers WILL go down once he has to either (1) break promises or (2) create huge amounts of pain in order to keep those promises.

[ZoomBubba]

8. I hate to say it ...

... but you are probably right. But, I think he would at least be a great vice presidential candidate. It's kind of indicative of our society, but it seems that there is reluctance to support a ticket that doesn't at least have a white guy somewhere on it.

I didn't realize it, but a lot of purist Democrats hate Booker. His positions on charter schools may be a benefit in a general election though.

[geek tragedy]

16. Purists have been decisive in exactly zero Democratic primary contests nt

Again, with Obama having won twice and sitting at 59% approval ratings, maybe being like Obama is a good thing.

[ZoomBubba]

20. I'm in agreement ...

... but the whole Bernie ordeal seems to have a lot of the Democratic leadership spooked now. I'm afraid they're going to become obsessed with the under-30 vote, which has always been unreliable, and wind up isolating more consistent voters, which are people who pay taxes, have families, have full time jobs and tend to be moderate in inclination. When I heard Bernie, I heard a guy who was talking mostly to college kids and YUPPIES.

[geek tragedy]

21. Democrats need to learn to start talking to the nation as a whole again.

the 2020 primary will feature more liberal positions than did the 2008 primary.

But, we're not going to nominate a socialist in 2020

[meadowlark5]

4. Do the dems have any "rising stars"?

It really does appear that most likely candidates for the dems are in their late 60 into late 70s.

2020, if there would be a challenge to Trump on the republican side, I see Cory Gardner of Colorado. I don't like him but he's handsome, charismatic and has been keeping his head down a lot during the past 4-6yrs so may look appealing. Rubio will be back. Hell even Ted Cruz is younger than Biden, Warren or Sanders. But he might be tied up as a Supreme Court Justice

Who are our Barack Obama's hiding in the wings?

[Auggie]

10. I don't know, but the party better identify and begin promoting them ASAP

Martin O'Malley should be one.

[meadowlark5]

17. I'm not sure I know of this person

Will have to look them up.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

22. we have plenty of rising stars, but when you are scared like we are now

you like to think of people who you find comforting, and new people are not comforting.

Here are a list of rising stars: Kamala harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Gavin Newsom, Martin O'malley, Julian Castro, Andrew Cuomo, Vory Booker, and those are some off the top of my head.

the nytimes has a list too http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/24/opinion/sunday/14-young-democrats-to-watch.html?_r=0

[dionysus]

46. Ugh, cuomo is not like his dad...

[crazycatlady]

50. He gets shit done

And progressive or not, I like that about him. I'm a native New Yorker and shook hands with his dad in 4th grade (field trip to the statehouse, he stopped by and said hi to us). (I left NY about 10 years ago).

However, he has won me over on one issue. He is in the process of replacing a bridge (Tappan Zee) that is 20 years past its shelf life (built in 1945 to last 50 years). I used to commute over that bridge and it was consistently being worked on.

As much as I wanted him to run this year (he was my top pick) I don't believe that he wants the job. He's also not a charismatic guy and isn't PR friendly (I have my cats in the game Neko Atsume named after politicians-- 'Andrew Cuomo' is the one classified as aloof). For example, after Sandy instead of parading around like his counterpart in NJ, he did everything by conference call. In 2020, we need someone with the charisma of Barack Obama or Bill (not Hillary) Clinton.

IIRC he didn't give a speech at this year's DNC.

[ismnotwasm]

51. Jesus H. Christ

Not Hillary? What the actual fuck? You mean male?

[KittyWampus]

53. That obviously wasn't what the poster meant. In context, it's crystal clear what was meant.

Hillary Clinton is not charismatic.

[ismnotwasm]

54. Sure she is

[dionysus]

63. Since you're up on him more than i am, isn't he involved in bridgegate somehow?

[Exilednight]

59. Booker has reached his political peak.

He's a good guy, and does well, but nothing to get excited about.

Gillibrand only has name recognition because she took Hillary's seat. She'll fade fast.

O'Malley might have an easier time. I could actually see Axelrod coming out and running an O'Malley campaign in 2020. If that's the case then we have something big to look forward to.

Castro needs a bigger platform, where he finds it now I am not sure.

Cuomo can go away.

Kamala Harris could be a huge star. It just depends on who she puts around her. I could actually see David Plouffe running her campaign.

[meadowlark5]

7. Actually, I have heard Gavin Newsom thrown around as a possible candidate

He's either the current or former mayor of San Francisco. He might have a chance. He's very charismatic, seems like a strong leader, was mayor of large economy. I saw him on Bill Maher awhile back and I thought he was impressive.

[Auggie]

11. Newsome is Lt. Governor of California and will run to replace Jerry Brown as Governor

Democrats need politcians from the midwest to step up

[meadowlark5]

12. It's probably just as important to keep a good dem governing California

We've seen what republicans can do to an economy that large (Ahnold).

[HeartachesNhangovers]

26. Gavin Newsom was my Board of Sups rep and later

the mayor when I lived in San Francisco. I will say that you will not find a more ambitious person than Gavin Newsom. He has been cooling his heels for the last 2 terms as Jerry Brown's lt. governor in CA (a do-nothing position). So at this point, Mr. Newsom is a former big-city mayor. I have to imagine that San Francisco is a pretty easy city to manage since it is a 100% Democratic town with a flood of property tax revenue coming in from properties that have all exploded in value in the last 30 years. So I would also consider Mr. Newsom to be a bit of a light-weight at this point. He needs to be successful in a big-time position before anyone will know whether he could handle being president. Remember that even the CA governor doesn't actually have to deal with any political opposition since Dems control the entire legislature and hold all state-wide offices.

[RonniePudding]

32. Lightweight?

What a ludicrous assessment.

We just elected a fucking reality TV show host as president and you're worried about Newsom's chops?

GMAFB.

ANYTHING goes now when it comes to presidential candidates. We're in a new era. Best get with the times.

[jfern]

42. Go ahead, run some lightweight like Julian Castro and see how badly he loses

[Retrograde]

52. SF easy to manage?

It may be 90% Democratic, but the infighting within the Board of Supes is legendary. It has a very large homeless population, since it's possible to live outdoors most of the year without dying (and there are documented cases of other localities dealing with their homeless by giving them a one-way ticket to SF) but there's not adequate shelter or support. The influx of so-called tech companies has driven the costs of housing and office space up so high that the former is no longer affordable for an average worker. And while new construction may be taxed at current market rates, California caps assessment increases to 2% annually, so revenue is not exactly flooding in.

Newsom, IMHO, did some innovative things as mayor (including allowing the first legally recognized same-sex marriages in the country), such as his attempts to address the homeless problems via vouchers and pushing for city-wide health care coverage, but his biggest liability in running for a national office is that he's a Californian (you know, from the land of fruits, flakes, and nuts). I'd lilke to see him go on to become our next governor - and if you think he's not going to have political opposition just because most of the state legislators have a D after their names, don't worry: I'm confident they'll find something to argue about.

[crazycatlady]

57. I don't think any San Francisco mayor sends the right message

It's already known as the most liberal (and most expensive) city in this country.

If we want to win swing voters, this is not your guy.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

19. democrats are scared and hurting and are holding on to people for comfort

at this point, their projection for they/we want in 2020 is irrelevant.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

23. I don't know much about several of them, but I know this much...

I'll reject candidates who I think are too cozy with big money.

[Blue_Tires]

24. Can these genuises please fucking think about '17 and '18 FIRST?

[geek tragedy]

25. that's what the DNC race is all about

the party right now is leaderless so there's no one to signal to us what priorities are, what the plan is, etc.

leadership vacuums tend to get filled one way or another

[Retrograde]

36. I'd rather have the House and Senate in 2018 and 2020

then the White House. The GOP has shown what Congress can do when it decides to oppose the president: I think it will be easier to take back Congress than to put a Democratic president in office.

And while we're at it, let's take back at least of few state houses.

[Wabbajack_]

60. Easier?

Hillary won the actual voting, lost due to razor thin margins in a few states, and the Democratic Party gained...what....5 House seats? The pukes are still above 240, yes?

And the Senate.....with many Dems in states won easily by Trump up in 2018? The Senate were Idaho/Alaska/Wyoming/The Dakotas/Utah/Nebraska have 7 times as many Senators as California?

Fact is we only have a chance at winning Congress if Trump is unpopular, meaning he would certainly lose reelection himself.

[dsc]

27. I would be very disappointed in Booker

His education policies are flat out terrible. He is great on gay rights and some other issues but he would destroy public schools if Trump hasn't done so already.

[DemocraticWing]

29. Remember when Booker claimed President Obama was being too hard on rich people?

In the middle of the 2012 election, no less. I can't see him standing up for Democratic ideals but hopefully he's changed.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

30. If he's too connected with the wealthy, I won't support him.

Can we please get a populist "grassroots" candidate who appeals to most African American voters too?!

AA's seemed to largely reject candidates who put "working class voters" at the forefront of their message, such as Jerry Brown in 1992, Howard Dean in 2004 and Bernie Sanders in 2016.

Obama succeeded, thankfully, although he also courted lots of money from Wall Street so he wasn't as "grassroots" as I would've preferred... although he at least came across that way to a large extent.

[dsc]

31. that too

[RonniePudding]

33. We'll see how disappointed you are after 4 years of Trump

[Quixote1818]

37. Me too. nt

[coolbreeze77]

28. It's Cuomo's race to lose if Bernie doesn't run. Booker would round out the top 3 and would be the

best chance to get the Obama coalition back.

[StevieM]

44. My money is on Elizabeth Warren. And welcome to DU!! (eom)

[NCTraveler]

34. This is one of the most laughable polls I have seen. Nt

[andym]

35. Perhaps Mark Zuckerberg or another wealthy Democrat will run

an "outsider."

[totodeinhere]

38. I could be totally wrong but I am guessing that Hillary Clinton will

give it one more try in 2020. She will be about the same age as Bernie Sanders was in 2016. She would not be my first choice but obviously I would support her if she got the nomination.

[Txbluedog]

39. Hell to the No

I'm a big fan of Mrs. Clinton but her time has passed. And frankly she's turned me off by refusing to take even the slightest of personal responsibility for HER loss

[StevieM]

45. I agree that HRC is retired but give her a break. It is hard to lose an election where

the opposition spent over a year essentially calling you a miserable human being. This was the most hateful campaign of personal destruction in American history.

And it is hard to look beyond the fact that you had the race won--decisively--with 11 days to go until a corrupt FBI Director interfered.

I don't remember Mike Dukakis, Al Gore or John Kerry rushing out to do a self-reflective postmortem either.

[geek tragedy]

41. No, just no. nt

[StevieM]

43. I love Hillary but I think she is retired. And she has earned the rest after the horrible way that

she was treated.

[Garrett78]

40. Sherrod Brown-Kamala Harris for 8 years. Followed by Harris and someone else for 8 years.

As for 2018, it doesn't look good for Democrats. Too many vulnerable Senators in red states.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

48. 2018 will be a referendum on the majority party, in this case Trumpublicans

a "bloodbath" is not all but assured IMHO but we need to support and defend our seats and fight hard for any potential pickups. Congressional Democrats, particularly in the Senate, need to make things miserable for Republicans/Trump in whatever way they can and DNC needs to quickly figure out a way to turn out our voters in 2018. Given the antipathy already generated towards Trump before he even takes office and his own personal baggage, I believe that holding our own and possibly even making gains is quite doable.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

47. Frankly

if Donald J. Trump can be President, we shouldn't really be spending so much time haggling over race, gender, age, etc. We just need to support and get behind (and get other people to support) whoever wins the Democratic primary to oppose Trump in 2020. We should be proud that we have a lot of qualified, electable people on our side of the aisle. Figuring out a way to get our voters to understand that politics isn't a "hobby" but a real "life vs. death" responsibility and get them out to the polls in every election should be what we really need to figure out. Republican voters sure already have. The irony seems to be that Republican policies tend to harm our voters more but we vote less.

[bigdarryl]

49. This party shouldn't be correlating ANY body this early

That's what got Hillary and the DNC in trouble with progressives

[Warren DeMontague]

55. We ought to look to the west coast for new leadership.

It's been ignored by our party for too long.

[geek tragedy]

56. Senate leader is from Nevada and House leader is from SF Bay area.

Party's problem is that it has been too heavily weighted towards the coasts while ignoring "flyover land."

[Warren DeMontague]

62. Maybe.

Harry Reid is hardly what you would call a coastal liberal. Yes, Nancy Pelosi, but has anyone ever suggested putting her on a Presidential ticket? No, they haven't.

Perfect example of what's wrong: marijuana legalization. Supported by a majority of Americans- even the flyover ones- and yet our east coast/beltway leaders are only now just starting to realize they cant ignore it or treat it like a giant joke, or ever worse be openly hostile to the idea, like DWS. While they treat it like some odd fringe issue, we have tax revenue and jobs on the line already.

Hell, Gov. Malloy of CT had a full blown temper tantrum the other day over MA's vote to legalize. i would call that just a regional problem, but Malloy is the chair of the Democratic Governor's Association, is he not? Why can't Kate Brown do that job?

[geek tragedy]

64. Did Kate Brown run for the job?

Part of it is just Senate/governors math. As many Democratic Senators from Delaware, Vermont and Rhode Island as from the entire west coast.

House members are necessary but very hard to attain national leadership status while in the House, especially with our party's gerontocracy. Ask Xavier Becerrra.

Party as a whole needs to be less wedded to the east coast, professional class urbanites, and the idea of centralized government (too often the assumption is that federal govt needs to be the source of all progressive policy fixes).

[Warren DeMontague]

65. Agree on all that.

[Exilednight]

58. Curious to the wording of the questions.

We say we don't want someone who ran for president before, but I really believe that many people do not consider someone a true presidential candidate unless they win their party's nomination.

In my view, a primary candidate is someone who is competing to run for the presidency, not someone who is actually running for the presidency.

[Ztolkins]

61. NEWSOM

Nuff said.

[KamaAina]

66. Please, not Cory the Tory.

Supporter of privatized education.

And fair or not, Gillibrand would undoubtedly run smack into "We tried a woman before. It didn't work."