Digby: "Trump's pollster agrees it was the Comey effect" (Read the whole, infuriating thing.)

[deurbano]

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/
December 02, 2016

<<Digby: Trump's pollster (Fabrizio) and Clinton's pollster (Benenson) talk about the race. Trump's man says that the race came down to four counties in Florida and one in Michigan. Five counties, people.

...“When you really drill down on this election, if you change the vote in five counties, four in Florida, one in Michigan, we’d be having a totally opposite conversation right now,” Fabrizio said of the race. “For all the money that was spent, for the all the effort that was made, literally four counties in Florida, one county in Michigan puts us at 261 [electoral] votes and makes Hillary Clinton the president. So, remember that.”...

Digby: That is not a landslide folks. With Clinton winding up winning between 2.5 and 3 million more votes it's a lucky fluke.

...In the final week after FBI director James Comey released a vague letter saying that the agency was examining new emails found on Anthony Weiner’s computer, the husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin, Benenson said that Clinton’s defectors just didn’t come back.

“Ours were coming back after the third debate,” Benenson said of the Clinton defectors. “We had actually solidified our lead for a period of days after that debate. Comey happens on that Friday, eleven days out, and that’s when we see—our defectors leave, their defectors get loyal and that keeps moving and probably in the end tips the balance.”...

...But Fabrizio said they “held their breath” because just days later Comey cleared Clinton once again. Benenson said that second announcement did not help them either “because it just put it back into the conversation again.”

Digby: There are a lot of reasons why this election turned out the way it did. Both candidates were widely loathed by half of a polarized country which made it a difficult sell on both sides. They all knew it would be close and were just trying to keep people from defecting in the last week.

This is where Giuliani delivered for Trump. He was clearly working with the FBI agents in the New York office and Comey either maliciously or stupidly went with the plan. It was timed perfectly and it worked. >>

Digby is quoting and commenting on this article by Gideon Resnick:
"Donald Trump’s Pollster Says the Election Came Down to Five Counties
This wasn’t a “landslide,” Tony Fabrizio says, it was a squeaker—and James Comey helped pull the Republican across the finish line.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/02/donald-trump-s-pollster-says-the-election-came-down-to-five-counties.html

[JHan]

1. It had a devastating impact on the momentum of her campaign..

Could see it in Hillary's face when she held a press conference after the story broke.

[LisaL]

2. Well, dah.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Sounds about right.

Felt the major shift on that Friday evening. And it ramped up as the weekend progressed.

[LisaL]

4. I said from the start this was timed perfectly.

FBI had this computer for a while and knew about the letters for at least since early October, from what has been reported.
So why didn't FBI get a search warrant right away after discovering these emails?
Both letters ended up very damaging.
First letter, 11 days before the election. Second letter, on Sunday before the election-instead of "exonerated" it got headlines that "Hillary again avoids prosecution."
Even if Hillary only lost one point on this (and I think more) she couldn't afford to lose it and it cost her the election.

[deurbano]

7. Those second headlines really pissed me off.

I mean, the whole, sorry Comey saga (including the part where HE-- of ALL people-- called HER reckless!!!) pissed me off, but that was the final nail in the coffin.

[radius777]

10. She easily lost 3+ points from this.

I think all of the polling averages and prediction models were mostly correct, probably underestimating the white working class vote somewhat, but ultimately the primary polling was correct, there was no "hidden" Trump vote, and I don't see it being off enough to have affected the race, especially with the type of leads H was polling after winning all three debates and Trump having melted down during much of October.

Hillary was the odds on favorite to win, nobody in 70 years has lost after maintaining such strong and durable leads - until Comey/Rudy/FBI interfered (and violated the Hatch Act, which was amendend in '93 to prevent against this exact type of scenario) in a such an egregious manner as to damage her momentum and likely cost her at least 3 points, imo. Without Comey, she wins by at least 5 points, and 320+ electoral votes.

[LisaL]

12. I agree, she likely lost more than 1 point on this.

My point, even if it were only one point, it was enough to cost here the election!

[uponit7771]

14. +1, she won the PV by the amount the polls said she would also post Comey. FUCK Comey !!!

[mcar]

5. Comey should be arrested

[Buckeye_Democrat]

6. Lots of people here predicted the worst after Comey supposedly "reopened" it.

They had more foresight than me because I was still optimistic about the election.

Exit polls showed that 50% of Ohioans were bothered by Clinton's private email "a lot" and they overwhelmingly voted for Trump. Unbelievable.

I sometimes wonder if she would've done better if she had a long laundry list of questionable/bad behavior like Trump? Maybe she should have grabbed guys by the penis?

I'm kidding (sort of), but the damn media kept their crosshairs on an alleged email "scandal" while Trump moved from one outrageous behavior to another, none of them seeming to stick very long.

[radius777]

8. this was a coup d'etat by the FBI

and it was obvious when it happened just 11 days before an election, that the letter was so vague, that the FBI/Comey broke a long standing custom of not commenting on ongoing investigations, then there were subsequent anti-Clinton (Marc Rich documents) drips on the FBI twitter feed, and anonymous leaks to the NYT throwing cold water on the Trump/Putin connection, etc.

The fact that our law enforcement agencies are so right-wing (and perhaps alt-right) is a clear and present danger to the health of the republic and any elections going forward.

[deurbano]

11. Incredibly dangerous.

[tblue37]

9. When more people understand how bad things are under Trump, Comet's name is going to

become a synonym for hideous and treasonous behavior, like Benedict Arnold's or for weak kowtowing to and collaboration with the destructive power of an occupying force, like Quisling's.

[AgadorSparticus]

13. ...or maybe they just rigged the election. Nt