Exit polls say Hillary won. What is the statistically probability that every poll, model AND exit

[Maraya1969]

polls were wrong? I keep thinking about Russia and how they hacked Hillary and the DNC and I wonder if they would be able to hack our election.

http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/


2016 Presidential Election Table
Posted on November 10, 2016 by Theodore de Macedo Soares — 103 Comments ?
by Theodore de Macedo Soares

According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts. With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 302 versus 205 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and holds a narrow lead in the national vote count still in progress.

Exit polls were conducted in 28 states. In 23 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. In 13 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceeded the margin of error of the state. See Table and its footnotes below.



A link to a petition to audit the election in 4 states is here:
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/810/285/388/

[oldtime dfl_er]

1. I have zero doubt

this was stolen, rigged, whatever. No doubt at all. The question is who is going to do something about it? I have no money, no resources, no expertise.

[Maraya1969]

2. I'm glad you said that. And if we can spread the word enough maybe the money will

show up. Maybe the DNC

[lake loon]

27. Nothing surprises me anymore

Between voter suppression, Russian involvement, alt right freakshows, etc., who knows what really happened. It all stinks to high heaven.

[Maven]

3. I said this on election night and I still think it's highly suspect. nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. I wouldn't trust a Trump voter for shit.

They would lie about who they voted for just because they are shit.
It would be hard/imposdible to use any data that involved a trump person.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

5. Anybody have a connection to the DNC. Isn't it best to go to them rather than a petition?

They never respond to my queries. They have real reason to demand this since they were hacked.

[SunSeeker]

6. Wow.

[byronius]

7. I would be surprised if this were not the case.

It smelled like crap early on. The hack of DU was a major clue -- they were laughing in our face as they gently ripped our future from us.

What do you call a democracy where only half the population believes in democracy, and the other half would do anything to launch and support an authoritarian coup?

USA! USA!

No Smedley Butler to save us now. Just us.

[Botany]

20. The hack of DU was a major clue

And why? Because people here can spot something when it doesn't seem right.

[Coyotl]

22. I have no doubt DU was taken down because the election was being rigged.

Fixing the election is so many states at once required silencing this community.

I would include all the Republican talk about the "rigged" system and the trolling of the Dem primaries with a lot of rigging narrative as part of the overall plan. Even Trump's confidence indicated the plot. But, theyt were way too far behind to pull it off and had to bring on the Giulliani-Comey conspiracy to get within range of fixing the result.

[mopinko]

25. yup.

as soon as the results were obvious, i knew why we were hacked.

[Coyotl]

26. I had no doubt the election was being rigged as soon as DU was taken down.

[BlueProgressive]

8. Exit polls may tell you how someone SAYS they voted, but they don't tell you

whether those votes are being counted, and THERE's the rub!

[treestar]

34. At one time they were enough for

networks to call the election. So they were generally more accurate.

A lot of people are coming out to admit they voted for the orange weasel. But some may have had enough shame to tell an exit poller differently.

[Pacifist Patriot]

36. Except you aren't being interviewed.

Exit polls are anonymous, a form is filled out, and dropped into a box. That incentive to lie impression about exit polls is based on the misconception people are being grilled by a pollster like phone polls. They aren't.

[treestar]

43. Then why lie?

Enough to make it inaccurate. Few people would be worried about looking bad for voting for a racist in that scenario.

[Generator]

42. That's why my dear hubby said

He was in more shock than I. He never bought the Ohio outrage from Kerry times. But this this he couldn't believe. Stinky Putin FBI voter suppression and DU DOWN! Yes a clue.

[JaneQPublic]

9. The Russians said they'd tamper with the election.

The Russians were in cahoots with the Trump, as proven by the Wikileaks hacks of the Clinton campaign.

So, sure, when, Trump wins contrary to nearly every poll and prediction, the obvious answer is a rigged election.

The real tip-off was Trump accusing others of rigging the election. His M-O the whole way through was to accuse Clinton of doing the very things he was doing -- whether it was of being crooked or lying, etc. He claims a rigged election long before the vote? He was the one rigging it.

[d_r]

11. I had the same thoughts nt

[mattclearing]

44. Yeah, like the temperament comment.

He was constantly accusing the Clinton campaign of what he was doing, to the point of absurdity.

[JaneQPublic]

45. Good example.

Even SNL mocked him for accusing Hillary of things he was guilty of doing, such as having an orange face "except around the eyes."

[rainy]

10. This:

https://trofire.com/2016/11/15/math-increasingly-suggests-election-fraud-hillary-clinton-david-pakman-show/

[JaneQPublic]

17. Thanks! (nt)

[barbtries]

12. evidence gathering.

my brother immediately said "they stole it." I need evidence before I can say that, but this is getting me closer to believing it.

I'm in NC and the republicans here are total scorched earthers. And I thought we were going blue! (such a shock, still recovering)

I haven't been able to look at news the past week. I subscribe to David Pakman and TYT and have only dipped my toes in briefly since the election. But this video discusses the very real possibility that the election was stolen.

I am of the belief that gw never won a presidential election, and he didn't need no russians, he had karl rove and a republican machine that covers the levers of power all the way to the supreme court. what's karl rove been up to lately? what about the FBI and their last minute dirty tricks?

I want more evidence, but have little doubt that it will emerge. i'm just not ready to say it categorically. I do know a lot of people personally who voted for drumpf. my heart is broken. i fear for our democracy more than ever in my life. i think we are really, really screwed. one of my own sons texted me to stop putting negative stuff on fb. i think he's symptomatic of a whole, whole lot of people: if we ignore it and just go about our business, it'll just all work out. I find that kind of apathy chilling and terribly dangerous.

anyhow. dark days. very dark days.

[Bobbie Jo]

13. Guarantee it.

High level tampering.

[jimlup]

14. I think it is plausible

but extreme and extraordinary. It will require extraordinary proof to be taken seriously.

[Sorceress]

15. I am not one who often engages in conspiracy theories.

However, all I can say is something doesn't seem quite right about how this went down. Sure, the Repub claims that people didn't want to admit they were voting Trump could be true; sure, it could be that Trump was able to up the rural turnout, but something just isn't quite right.

[libtodeath]

16. They knew where and how to steal the election

all the talk of rigging was an inside joke imo.

[kydo]

18. Of Course the Russians tampered with the results

Will any investigative organizations with the power to do anything about it do anything? Of course not. Don't be silly. This is fascist Amerkkkia now, they make their one rules. One set for white supremacist and another set for everyone else.

Now if Clinton had the Russian connection like cheeto does, she would be in jail. Of course she didn't and he did and now he is in the white house, and so are the russians, with the FBI just holding the door for them. What a lovely country we live in. Criminals are rewarded with positions of power honest people are locked up.

that creature is Not My President! He lost.

[Coyotl]

23. The "Russians" narrative is a pile of crap, part of the cover-up.

Republicans don't need people on the other side of the world to steal elections for them!

[kydo]

24. You are right. The fascist party didn't need their help

But I bet they helped anyway.

They also helped agent orange by paying trolls on the internet. Not just message board trolls, but facebook trolls, twitter trolls and most importantly news trolls, like info-wars, braibreit, alt-right sites, rt, all that crap.

And don't even get me started on the supposedly news media outlets. They normalized this crap. The Russian involvement in cheetos campaign should have been the lead story on everything. It should have been mentioned more then Clinton's emails. Instead we heard crickets.

The Russian involvement on any level should be reason enough to disqualify him and his whole party from this election.

This whole thing is a travesty!

[Botany]

19. Before a single vote was cast, the election was fixed by GOP and Trump operatives.

http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/ <http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/>


Before a single vote was cast, the election was fixed by GOP and Trump operatives.

Starting in 2013 – just as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act – a coterie of Trump operatives, under the direction of Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State, created a system to purge 1.1 million Americans of color from the voter rolls of GOP–controlled states.

The system, called Crosscheck, is detailed in my Rolling Stone report,
“The GOP’s Stealth War on Voters <http://www.gregpalast.com/rolling-stone-expose-gops-secret-plan-steal-vote/>,” 8/24/2016.

Crosscheck in action:
Trump victory margin in Michigan: 13,107
Michigan Crosscheck purge list: 449,922

Trump victory margin in Arizona: 85,257
Arizona Crosscheck purge list: 270,824

Trump victory margin in North Carolina: 177,008
North Carolina Crosscheck purge list: 589,393

[TrekLuver]

37. Well why aren't the Dem's doing anything about this ? Surely they know what is going on here.

[Botany]

38. Contact the D o J, if you have a D senator or Congress Criiter, President Obama, and most ....

.... important pass this story on to your family and friends. The media will not touch
this story unless it gets hot.

You can contact the DNC too but they are useless.

[TrekLuver]

39. I will absolutely contact everyone. Last time I tried to call Schumer (about the comey letter) do

you know that nobody picked up the phone!!!!!

[Botany]

41. If you can go to one of his offices in person and talk to somebody ...

.... demand that something must be done and that future of America
is at stake. Give them the chart on the exit polls and the story about
"crosscheck."

[Baitball Blogger]

21. Republicans cheat. It's what they do.

And then they wrap themselves in the flag and round up their tribe with cries of War on Christmas.

So, with all the rich Democrats we have in this country, combined with bright young Millennials, why doesn't someone come up with an incubator of white hats to go out and track how the Republicans are stealing these elections?

[KewlKat]

28. k&r

[Grey Lemercier]

29. exit polls will never stand up in a court of law

You need cold hard smoking gun evidence, and because its potentially 5 plus states with 5 plus different voting structures, sorting it out to the point of even getting preliminary actions started to simply do a basic audit will be a task of herculean proportions. If the Clinton campaign makes noises officially about this, then I think we might get moving on it, but until and if they do we are all basically stuck.

The Russian private hackers worked hand in hand with the global black hat community and neo nazi techies to do massive disruptions on so many levels, but you will never be able to show direct linkage and control of them by the Kremlin and Putin. Putin is far far too smart for that. He is not going to put a nuclear exchange on the table over an election that no matter what the result was, he can play it to his advantage.

Lastly, if people push a false narrative that the Russian government actually "hacked" directly into the US voting system you will get tossed quickly into the tin foil hat pool and severely damage all credibility and hope to even try and show that internal US deep state power structures possibly did actually tamper with real cast votes.

Even if they (the American RW) did do it, these are people with billions of dollars to hire the best hackers in the world and they more than likely used backdoors that leave zero electronic forensic traces.

[KewlKat]

30. can we have our own forum to gather what we find in one place.

There are others out there that may have screenshots etc of stuff. Can we convince anyone of doing audits? What about MI that had 80,000 ballots without casting a vote for president?

[cilla4progress]

31. I believe they did

Are there people working on this?

[OhZone]

32. It was def stolen by voter suppression -

but, anecdotally, I do notice one clue that there may have been a lot of people ashamed to admit they were voting for Trump.

Immediately after the election, I'm seeing a lot more Trump stickers on cars than before. I have a long commute, and they have suddenly multiplied a lot. That means they had them in their possession but were embarrassed to put them on their cars before his "win.

[JaneQPublic]

33. "Donald Trump was right: THE ELECTION WAS RIGGED. In his favour."

Remember Greg Palast?

http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/uncategorised/donald-trump-was-right-the-election-was-rigged-in-his-favour/15/11/

[B Calm]

35. If you said republicans cheated by Gerrymandering, it would

be more believable.

[flamingdem]

40. Obama will be devoting his time to these issues

thank god