2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538.com has Hillary down in Fl. by almost 4 points
I am very worried about Fl. I live in Broward County, the most democratic county in the state. I see more pro Trump bumper stickers, lawn signs, and people waving signs on street corners then I do for Hillary. Of course this is my own subjective impression, and it could be that Trump supporters just make more noise then sane people.
I don't have much hope for NC because of all the voter suppression. So it all comes down to NV and NH. NH is Bernie's backyard, I hope he spends the next 3 days there.
yardwork
(61,599 posts)MountainMazza
(312 posts)She's got this.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,683 posts)http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)helpisontheway
(5,007 posts)all day. He said it looks good for Hillary. He is the one that told Obama that he would win Florida in 2008.
https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale
still_one
(92,188 posts)Silent3
(15,210 posts)It's not 48% of the vote vs. 52% of the vote, it just means a slightly less than 50/50 chance of Clinton winning Florida. I don't think the model takes into account the good news we've been hearing about the early vote turnout.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Nate got into quite the Twitter war about not including early-voting information, saying that was just "making shit up."
still_one
(92,188 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)I specifically remember the "all the voter suppression" line.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)Lots of people are "very worried" lately. Funny how they only get so "very worried" right before an election.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)
if only because one possible outcome is so dire.
jg10003
(976 posts)for the very existence of the republic if they had been elected.
538.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)Especially since you can't read the 538 numbers properly.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)and predicts that she'll wind up winning by at least 3.1%. They give odds on her winning the state as 93.8%. While Upshot and PEC aren't as wildly positive, the former puts our odds at 69%, while PEC puts it in the 60-79% range.
Seems to be the outlier. Every other site had her up on Trump. So either they're wrong or everyone else is.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)We are giving Nate shit But isn't he usually the most accurate ? Altho recent polling has give Hillary the lead in FL I don't understand how Nate has her behind
Lindalouuu
(91 posts)I live In St Lucie county. Trump signs everywhere here too. I looked up early voting stats and if they are any indication of anything. Things look good for us and Hillary. The polls are making me crazy.
still_one
(92,188 posts)getting factored in properly
Jason1961
(413 posts)Our mandate is the same if we hit 538 EVs as it is 270. We're pretty much guaranteed to hit 270, barring some major disaster like footage of Hillary on the Grassy Knoll or proof she helped the Japanese pull off Pearl Harbor; I use these two extreme examples because that's what it would have to be for Trump to win.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)When I voted early it seemed mostly people voting Hillary.
still_one
(92,188 posts)are pumped up for Hillary
still_one
(92,188 posts)canvassing in your state. I am in California, and I have been call banking into Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, and the response from Democrats is terrific for Hillary.
The early voting numbers also look good, and a factor not represented very well in the polls is the republican cross-over vote and Latino vote that is occurring
As for your statement regarding North Carolina, you don't know what you are talking about. A judge just ordered the illegal voting challenges to be thrown out, and those folks to be allowed to vote.
As with Florida, my call banking into North Carolina is phenomenal
As for you 538 evaluation, again you missed the ball. Silver deals with probabilities and a percent chance that something will occur. As has been posted here Silver himself has said there may be issues with his method, but even without that, he still give Hillary 60% chance to win, verses trumps 30% chance.
If you are really as concerned as you say, I recommend you go to your nearest Hillary headquarters where you are and get involved with getting out the vote
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)zenabby
(364 posts)and to to the link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ - check out the polls. All the new polls (after Oct 27) have Clinton leading. The ones that have Trump leading are October 20-26.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)still_one
(92,188 posts)NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)I don't think that's going to happen. I'm a swing voter who am a cross between a moderate Democrat and moderate Republican. Trump REPULSES me. I only know two people who likes Trump. One is one of those angry middle aged white guys with drinking issues who is pissed at the world and just wants someone to blame and the other is a woman who deep down is a good person...she's just not very smart and very stubborn...and doesn't realize she's not very smart so doesn't really listen.
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)that the Latino voters are very hard to capture in the polling data....AZ-NV-FL and then we have
Be You Y Vota..enjoy!!!! - I just love this AD!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017408605
Sunsky
(1,737 posts)Lawn signs and bumper stickers mean nothing. I should know because I have 3 Hillary stickers on my car and only 1 vote. Anyway did you know that no party affiliation is currently having more votes that republicans in this county? FL is close, we need to do our part to GOTV. Link
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)To get a more 'complete' picture IMHO use Predictwise. And listen to David Rothchild's daily analysis (up to election) on FaceBook.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Also, early voting means a lot more than stupid lawn signs.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)Florida has a massive amount of Puerto Ricans. They don't come here on visas either...and they can vote immediately upon coming to the US. Aside from this group are all the more conservative Latinos who are registered Republican. Seniors who are old enough to remember WWII are not going to be voting for Trump either.