New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading in most key states
"...Yet Clinton is in a better place than Barack Obama was at this point in 2012. In the HuffPost Pollster chart, Obama widened his lead to just 1.5 percentage points over Mitt Romney nationally ― but that was good enough for Simon Jackmans HuffPost model and Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight model to give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning. Obamas odds in the states were good enough that he was predicted to get 332 electoral votes (which is what he got)."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/state-polls-clinton-leading_us_581a8098e4b08f9841ad3a03
So why is 538 ( and some others) so different this year...Obama had less of a lead than Clinton has now ...91 % chance of winning according to 538...now 538 shows under 70% chance for Clinton who has a bigger lead, why? I predict over 300 electoral votes for Hillary.