2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumABC News / WaPost: Trump has a 22 % gain of independent voters in one week
Changes in the poll’s latest four nights compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote. Among those results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates:
As Trump’s controversies last week and the week before move farther into the rearview mirror, Republicans are expressing greater likelihood to participate: Eighty-one percent of registered Republicans now are likely voters, up from 75 percent a week ago.
In one example, there are 6 points more Republicans and GOP-leaning independents showing up in the ranks of non-college white women. This group was broadly for Trump a few weeks ago, then less so; it’s now back, favoring him by 59-29 percent.
Loosely affiliated or reluctant Clinton supporters look less likely to vote, perhaps given their sense she can win without them – a supposition that looks less reliable today.
Vote preferences also are part of the mix. At its lowest early this week, 82 percent of Republicans supported Trump. It’s 86 percent now. And his share of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents has gained 6 points, from 78 to 84 percent.
Trump, further, has gone from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents, with more Republican leaners in their ranks.
Among other examples of partisan shifts in turnout, the share of white likely voters who are Democrats or lean that way is down by 5 points.
The share of white women who are Republicans or GOP leaners is +6 points, and leaned Democrats are down 7 points in this group.
And the share of 18- 29-year-olds who are Republicans, or lean that way, is +6, though still low, while leaned Democrats age 18-29 are -9 points.
Many of these results are not statistically significant taken alone, given the sample sizes – but these small shifts add to the larger trends.
Another way to cut the data is to take all eight waves of tracking, with interviews among 2,303 likely voters, a robust sample size; that produces a 48-42 percent contest, similar to the average in ABC/Post polls since July. But doing so sets aside the dynamics of the past week.
That said, the dynamics can continue to shift. While preferences in recent past elections have been stable, there are previous examples of wild rides. Most notable is 1992, when, among many gyrations, Bill Clinton went from an 11-point lead to a 3-point gap in six days late in the race – a shift much like his wife is experiencing in her contest, these 24 years later.
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Foggyhill
(1,060 posts)Overinterpretation and misenterpretstion of polling data is tiresome
The extreme lev bad nature of national polling methods and sampling makes them worse than noise
Notice this occurred at same time she was down only 3 in Texas, ahead in all swing states by large margins and at historical highs in California
Not only that, it seems to be ignoring the Latino votes
My own amateur analysis says perhaps the effect of the Trump p***y tape has begun to wear off. We were never going to win the popular vote by 15 points.
We'll have to see where the polls go during the week, though.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)Lots of people thought so at the time. It's now joined the mountain of offensive comments Trump has made that people have gone on to more or less forget about.
He's now in the position that Hillary was in a couple of weeks back. All he has to do is lay low and refrain from saying (or tweeting) something stupid while she's out there dealing with an explosion of bad press.
The question is, can he do this?
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Who when they talk politics sure sound republican and always vote republican. But they are "independent"
Matter fact, they are even more conservative than republicans.
BSdetect
(8,998 posts)Same ludicrous idiots who seem to ignore the stunningly obvious.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... but pretend they are "independent" because that makes the fools appear to be smarter than they actually are.
Trump can have them.
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)And I have voted for more Democrats than Republicans. I'm mostly conservative on drugs and gun rights (but I support sensible regulations). I despise having laws created that infringe upon the rights of others that are pushed under the pretense of anyone thinking they know what is best for others and it pushes their will upon me. Pretty much everything else I'm pretty liberal on. I do despise that abortions occur but I support them being legal so they can be regulated. I support funding Planned Parenthood and think pro-lifers are batshit crazy.
Please don't assume you know what or how Independents are. I am an Independent because BOTH parties have policy stances that piss me off. I decide who to vote for based on who is the most moderate and best fits my views. THAT is what makes us swing voters. You get the majority of the Independent vote by putting forth the most sane, moderate candidate.
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Just my observation on a lot of independents that I have met. Claim to be independent, but parrot RW talking points and never have anything nice to say about democrats.
I guess a perfect example would be Bill oreilly, I remember when I use to watch him he claimed he was independent.
I actually think the more accurate term for people like you is moderate. Moderates are independents that are in the middle, but not all independents are moderate. People can be independent and be further to the left or right of the respective parties.
RonniePudding
(889 posts)RonniePudding
(889 posts)You sure you're in the right place?
Polly Hennessey
(6,793 posts)for attention. They are/were always going
to vote republican.
DeminPennswoods
(15,278 posts)Many people who don't like the direction of their party move their registration to Indy or non-partisan before either moving to the other party or back to their original party. The GOP has increasingly become the party of the crazy fringe so I'd have expected the universe of Indy voters to be largely comprised of Republicans. And that appears to be true.
Demsrule86
(68,552 posts)Trump. And for those of you who are Trump trolls here and we know some are ...he is going to lose bigly.
DeminPennswoods
(15,278 posts)I based my comment on my own experience. I registered as a non-partisan before deciding to register as Dem.
BTW, I'm a long time reader of DU, just never bothered to register.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Not a chance.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)in the past.
I canvassed yesterday and I will canvas again today. We must defeat this madman.
But I am by no means certain that we will.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)Polling is correct trump can win this easily But I suspect abc is being very bearish on our chances GOTV !
Demsrule86
(68,552 posts)There will be many crying Trump supporters on a certain Tuesday in November. The alt-reich will not win.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)When ABC said that they were changing their methodology on their tracking poll because they were afraid they were oversampling democrats. That is why there is a massive gain for trump. Not because he actually gained but because ABC is playing around with how they conduct the poll.
triron
(21,999 posts)my last post
triron
(21,999 posts)Polling must be inconsistent.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Shifts of that magnitude don't happen in a general election.
I have seen many indications that independents have moved slowly toward Trump, even before the email development.
