2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGreenberg poll (D) only has Clinton up ONE pt (!) over Trump w white millennials, 33-32%. Wow.
Obama lost under 30 white vote by 7 in 2012..
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/779407941556379652
triron
(22,020 posts)Maybe Sanders voters are coming over even more now.
former9thward
(32,077 posts)Obama won the under 30 vote by 23 points.
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
Zynx
(21,328 posts)former9thward
(32,077 posts)You are saying that Obama lost the white under 30 yet still won the under 30 by 23 points!!! Sorry that voter math does not remotely begin to add up. Please provide a link showing Obama lost the white under 30 by 7 points --- or any points.
MistakenLamb
(537 posts)black millennials supported Obama 80-19 Men 98-1 Women
I am using this as a reference http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/26/young-voters-supported-obama-less-but-may-have-mattered-more/
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)Also, yes, I can construct the algebra by which that is true. Obama virtually swept the non-white vote under the age of 30. That means that if he lost the white vote narrowly, he would have a massive overall lead.
former9thward
(32,077 posts)Clinton does not do that in current polling.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)She is outperforming that in current polling. I don't know why this concept is so hard to grasp.
former9thward
(32,077 posts)I don't know why this concept is so hard to grasp.
JI7
(89,264 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He won around 80% which would mean (.6 * .42) 25 points of margin from non-white voters.
Losing by 7 points amongst white 18-29s = (.07 * .58) = 4 points of margin going the other way.
So the math works perfectly. White milennials are less progressive than the overall population.
JI7
(89,264 posts)was not as great as the loss of non whites by republicans.
etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)Look at the exit polls here. He lost that group by 7%. Millennials are more heavily minority than the rest of the electorate and sweeping the minority portions of Millennials while losing whites narrowly means you win by a lot overall.
etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)While Obama captured 66% of the youth vote, compared with McCains 31%, voters age 30 and older divided roughly evenly between the two candidates. Among those ages 18-29, Obama took a majority among whites (54%-44%), and captured more than three-fourths of young Hispanic voters (76%-19%). However, among both younger and older voters, there was no difference in the vote of those with college experience and those without.
http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/
BlueInPhilly
(870 posts)The OP clearly stated Obama support in 2012. You just posted McCain's numbers, which would have been in 2008.
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)I think Romney broke 50% with that group
MistakenLamb
(537 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)due to young people of color.
molova
(543 posts)?
Vinca
(50,303 posts)This race has that "midterm" feel.
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)Romney won with that group in 2012. Obama's dominance with young voters came in non-white millennials (where Hillary may do even better thanks to Trump).
The fact that she's outperforming Obama just underscores how important TURNOUT will be.
marlakay
(11,491 posts)Over him telling me last night he is voting for Trump.
Of course he doesn't read or pay attention to both sides so just hears soundbites.
Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)Maybe tell him what happened in class if you weren't educated on a topic? You'd fail. He hears Trump's lies much the way people hear scary loud bullies and figure they should listen to them. Trump has said such filth about women and others. But, if moral arguments fail, say there is no experience in Trump's history being involved in foreign affairs, and that's why Republican papers are backing her, former President GHW Bush, and the last guy who ran GOP said he's s fraud! What else needs said? Lol
Skoods
(341 posts)Is for millenials. But I'm a 28 year old white male and I truly believe this is dependent on location and culture.
I grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs and have lived in New England for a third of my life, and most white millenials I know either don't vote or are democrats.
The further south you go, the more white millenials have been brainwashed by the dark side.