2016 Postmortem

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts) Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:26 AM Jul 2016

Was President Obama ahead

at this point before the elections? I think they said the winner is usually ahead in July..... Now all this Nate Silver crap predicting Trump will win. UghhhhhhAll of these polls with Trump ahead are driving me insane. There can't be that many stupid people in the US. I hope they don't find their way to the polls. I hope Trump's ground game sucks...

6 replies

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Was President Obama ahead (Original Post) helpisontheway Jul 2016 OP

he didn't say trump will win. in fact, all his models show hillary winning except the "now-cast" unblock Jul 2016 #1

Oh okay. Thanks. Nt helpisontheway Jul 2016 #2

If I recall, Romney took a slight lead after his convention, and a few polls had him up in Sept/Oct. CrowCityDem Jul 2016 #3

Obama wasn't running against a ferret wearing Warren Stupidity Jul 2016 #4

Your concern concerning this concern concerns me. MohRokTah Jul 2016 #5

It's close is what all this shows. RAFisher Jul 2016 #6

unblock

(52,494 posts)

1. he didn't say trump will win. in fact, all his models show hillary winning except the "now-cast"

Reply to helpisontheway (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:33 AM

Jul 2016

which overstates the convention bounce.

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)

2. Oh okay. Thanks. Nt

Reply to unblock (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:34 AM

Jul 2016

CrowCityDem

(2,348 posts)

3. If I recall, Romney took a slight lead after his convention, and a few polls had him up in Sept/Oct.

Reply to helpisontheway (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:35 AM

Jul 2016

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)

4. Obama wasn't running against a ferret wearing

Reply to helpisontheway (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:48 PM

Jul 2016

cheeto-faced shit-gibbon, either time, so there is no relevant comparison.

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)

5. Your concern concerning this concern concerns me.

Reply to helpisontheway (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:50 PM

Jul 2016

Especially since McCain went into the lead as soon as the Repugnant convention ended in 2008, and Romney was in the lead when the Repugnant 2012 convention ended. And when they talk about the person ahead in July, they are talking about BEFORE ANY CONVENTIONS!

So yeah, your concern concerning this concern concerns me.

RAFisher

(466 posts)

6. It's close is what all this shows.

Reply to helpisontheway (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:11 PM

Jul 2016

We won't know for a couple weeks if the polls today are due to the RNC bounce effect. Trumps numbers were climbing before the RNC. As someone who watched the RNC I thought Trump might get a negative bump from the RNC. That doesn't seem to be the case. In 2012 Romney never really lead the race. He over took Obama for only a day then went back to losing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

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