Morning Joe is reading polls like its election night (and they are NOT good)

[underpants]

Quinnipiac Poll

Florida - Trump 42% Clinton 39%
Clinton was up 8 last month

Ohio- Clinton 41% Trump 41%

PA - Trump 43% Clinton 41%


Monmouth University poll
Iowa - Trump 44% Clinton 42% Gary Johnson 6%
MOE is 4.9%

Iowa voters UNDER 50 years old - Trump 51% Clinton 32% Johnson 7%


Harper Polling
colorado - Clinton 45% Trump 38% Someone Else 14%
MOE is 4.38%

[BlueNoMatterWho]

1. Not good at all. The good news is there's plenty of time to reverse them.

[apcalc]

2. Quinnipiac is really off this year.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

3. Why do you say that?

[apcalc]

52. Read up on Quinnipiac this year.

They have consistently tilted toward the Republican.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

59. True

[underpants]

6. Three points

1. + These are pre-Bernie endorsement (?)
2. + organization/ground game is on our side
3. - in the dead of summer if the anti-Hillary news is actually catching on that is not good

Meant this as a reply to post #1

[BlueNoMatterWho]

7. Correct on all points. But plenty of time to change the numbers in our favor.

Hopefully he doesn't get a convention/VP pick bump to add to these numbers.

[oswaldactedalone]

11. He will get a convention/VP pick bump

to add to his numbers. Even though it's completely cynical for Drumpf to proclaim that he's the Law and Order candidate, it's a good move on his campaign to adopt this slogan. 48 years ago, Nixon's proclamation of being the Law and Order candidate paved his way into office. That will be play well with his base and many independents. We don't need the BLM movement to turn violent and we don't need another idiot like the Dallas shooter to perpetrate violence on cops or anyone else.
Clinton will get a post convention/VP pick bounce as well so those should negate themselves. A good ground game amounts to a max of 2 points difference. GOTV and hope that Hillary's shortcuts with the email server don't result in President Drumpf.

[chillfactor]

4. I do not believe...

anything that comes out of Joe's mouth...many polls have been posted on DU and they have been very positive for Hillary.....and I will believe Nate Silver rather that anything Joe says.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

5. Unfortunately they are true. Although Clinton still leads nationally by between 4-5 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

[still_one]

40. Nate Silver has a different take on this also

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[BlueStateLib]

8. Ohio is a republican state with 11 to 4 us representatives

[BlueNoMatterWho]

9. Yes, but this is Drumpf we're talking about. The establishment Rethugs hate him.

So where is he getting his support?

[TeddyR]

33. From all the Republicans

Who elected him as the Republican nominee in the first instance and from the independents who don't trust Hillary. It is only July and polls today can certainly change by November, but I'm worried that Dems made a serious mistake with Hillary.

[Hekate]

53. I think that Libertarian will draw off the Independents who gag at Trump

Net loss for Tinyhands.

[TeddyR]

58. Perhaps

I'm more worried about the Dems that are going to stay home.

[underpants]

10. Virginia has 9 of 11 Reps Republican but we keep voting Dem statewide

They've gerrymandered the hell out the Commonwealth

[OnDoutside]

12. And now they are tearing Bernie apart for not putting enough emotion into his

endorsement !!! 'ken hell ! They're disgusting.

[Peigan68]

13. Morning Joe is crapping all over Hillary this morning

I had to turn it off it was so bad. They went over every state poll that has him slightly ahead or tied, and went on and on about people not thinking she was trustworthy. That was bad enough, but then they started talking about Bernie's endorsement yesterday and they literally all started cracking up and joking about how "sincere" it was, clearly implying that it wasn't. Then Andrea Mitchell suddenly appeared and joined in the fun.

Meanwhile they keep pushing Trump and saying only positive things about him. Not only about the polls, but also reading all his stupid tweets and mentioning his "fight" with Justice Ginsberg. When they started disrespecting one of the Supreme Court justices of the United States I finally turned it off.

If I wanted to watch Fox news I would.

[OnDoutside]

14. At least with Fox News you know where they stand !!!

[Hekate]

55. Andrea Mitchell was in full Hack Mode immediately after Bernie's endorsement...

She had a tiny 3 person panel of Sanders supporters and was busily feeding them lines about how could they ever get past Hillary's untrustworthiness.

I turned off the boob tube and piled on a bunch of CDs I have not listened to in ages, everything from Bach to Irish folk music. It did me no end of good.

[Iliyah]

15. Most Liberals know where Joe S., Mitchell and the other hit jobs on MSNBC stands.

GOP convention is next week where the crazies will converge on Cleveland (I feel sorry for). Of course they need a pick me up bullshit Q poll as well as other lean GOP polls to fall on.

Rmoney really, sincerely thought alongwith fake news and other corporate media outlets - he would be president. These polls had him winning. Same with McCain and that horrible Palin.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

29. These polls around the same time in 2012 had Obama in the lead in these states.

[book_worm]

16. She had a bad week last week this is just the usual ups and downs of a campaign

and the media wants to create the illusion of a horse race. Trump will have the publicity all to himself next week, too and will get a boost. Then the attention will be on HRC and her VP selection and convention--she will get a boost from that.

[AntiBank]

17. Clinton will get a huge boost soon from Sanders endorsing

these polls are meaningless on so many levels, including the ones showing her up 12 or 13 points


wayyyyy too early

[JRLeft]

41. She will after the convention too.

[Her Sister]

18. Oh no nonono!!! We gonna lose. Not gonna bother voting or GOTV!

Giving up the whole she-bang! Trumpie come screw me!!!

[still_one]

39. Nate Silver seems to have a different take than the OP

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[AntiBank]

42. Silver had her at 82% a wee bit ago so he has dropped. Still wayyy

too early. These polls are all meaningless. She will get big boost from Sanders folks.

[still_one]

43. I agree it is way too early, a lot of people are not paying attention, and there is still a lot of

background noise going on

I also think these polls are under sampling some significant demographics in swing states, especially in regard to gender, Latinos, African Americans, and others

[SaschaHM]

19. NBCNews is releasing some polls at 5 today.

I'd wait until those hit before freaking out too much.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

27. Thanks for the heads up! :)

[Her Sister]

46. Thanks! ~In one hour!

[Doodley]

20. What exactly is Team Hillary doing to destroy Trump? Not much.

[underpants]

23. Actually here in Va. they've had a lot of ads

When I say a lot I mean that I rarely watch commercials (time delay shows) and I'm still seeing them. Not completely sure if they are the campaign or side groups. Ex-Admirals and Generals denouncing Trump. Women mouthing the words of things his said while you hear his actual voice saying then. Other examples.

I'm seeing them on the Food Network, early morning news, Science channel, home improvement shows - we have a young daughter so we are really careful about what shows we watch.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

28. I'm seeing a lot of them here in Arizona as well.

[Peigan68]

30. And here in Florida too

[SaschaHM]

34. Same in North Carolina.

[Doodley]

35. These are all good things, but where is the dismantling of his lies and his record by Clinton

There are so many, his lies largely go unchallenged by the media, and are unnoticed by his supporters. They should hit him hard on trust in a visual and powerful, media-friendly way.

Bring to rallies groups of people whose lives have been badly affected by Trump's scams, non-payments, or bankruptcies.

Throw down very public challenges and hold him to account for his lies - tell him to produce evidence: China created the climate change hoax, Obama birth certificate, Mexico has a policy of sending murderers and rapists, that he spoke against Iraq invasion, and many more - make his lies news stories.

Just saying Trump doesn't believe in Climate Change and rejects what the scientists say is not going to impact on his vote, but saying "Donald Trump, I challenge you to produce one shred of evidence for your claim that China created Climate Change. I challenge you to produce evidence to show this isn't just another example of how you don't understand the issues and you have a habit of making it up, which would have a devastating effect on our relationships with other nations, and our environment. This is a question of character...." Saying this at length and talking about one lie for ten minutes will make it a news issue.

Hold press conferences by Clinton spokespeople to do this as well.

[underpants]

38. With all the military and retired military here in Va.

When a retired Admiral Or General speaks they listen.

[NCTraveler]

50. Interesting that she has already and repeatedly done...

Multiple items you are saying she needs to get on.

[NYC Liberal]

60. That is happening every single day.

HRC and her campaign are going after Trump relentlessly, day after day. They are hammering him. Every other poll has her up by double digits or close to it.

[NCTraveler]

49. GE ads have been running in Florida for over a month.

Clinton, Obama, Sanders, Biden, and many more have hit the trail for her. She has an impressive network that will help to get the vote out. She has money.

The exact opposite of "not much".

[TwilightZone]

51. Running ads in several states

[Vote2016]

21. If we can turn around the Hillary = status quo theme, we fix this polling problem.

[NorthCarolina]

22. Polling during the primaries consistently showed that Democrats had only one candidate

in the running that consistently bested Trump across the board in virtually all polls. The party promptly rejected that candidate as too much a pie-in-the-sky populist. Please don't tell us how "surprised" you are that Trump is gaining on Hillary in the polls because it was predicted all along, so clearly no surprise here. Both are very unpopular candidates as poll after poll has also demonstrated, but only one of the two unpopular candidates represents, for good or bad, an opportunity for change from the status-quo. People want change; many are so desperate for it that they will not care in what form change comes.

[SaschaHM]

26. "The voters rejected that candidate" ftfy. nt.

[still_one]

37. yes they did.

[caquillo]

36. Why don't you people get that those polls that showed Sanders besting Trump were meaningless?

All GE match ups during the primaries are meaningless. Not to mention that Sanders was not vetted by the press and pretty much got a free ride, since neither Hillary nor the GOP took out the knives on him. Thus, his poll numbers didn't suffer. Quelle surprise!

You honestly think that if Sanders had won the nomination that he wouldn't be facing the same uphill battle (perhaps even worse) or that the GE would be a cakewalk for him? You can't be that naive.

[tallahasseedem]

24. I saw this as well...

We need to keep cool heads and forge ahead. The constant beat of the bullshit email scandal is getting to some, but Trump has a lot of baggage that I know Hillary will be trotting out at the right time. I trust her enough to know that she will not be "Swiftboated" in this election.

[JoePhilly]

25. Trump would have to win every swing state to win the GE.

Its not happening.

[TeddyR]

31. No, he'd just have to win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

And hold Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. I fully expect Trump to hold the latter three - I haven't seen any polls that show Hillary ahead in those states and other than President Obama carrying North Carolina in 2008 Dems don't do well in those states. And according to Quinnipiac Trump's ahead or tied in the first three. So while it is only July and the debates might make a difference, Democrats should be concerned about Hillary's chances.

[JoePhilly]

45. You just listed 6 states he must win.

And you forgot Virginia.

[TeddyR]

56. He doesn't have to win Virginia

The states I listed, 3 of which he will win and the other 3 he's ahead or tied in, give him 273 electoral votes. So he can lose Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa etc. and still win.

[JoePhilly]

62. NIT ... you listed 6 states that he MUST win.

Which means Hillary only needs to win any one of those 6 to win it all, right?

You appear to be conceding that Trump probably has no shot in VA, CO, Iowa, and NV.

btw ... I think he loses NC too. I live there. McCrory has pissed off most of the state. And he'll probably lose to Cooper. A RW poll in May had Cooper UP by 10 points.

Bottom Line ... Trump's path is harder than McCain's was, or Romney's.

[TeddyR]

63. So yeah

He has to win those states, or VA instead of NC, Colorado and VA instead of PA, etc. I think Trump has a shot in VA and perhaps IA, I was just making the point he doesn't have to win every swing state.

I grew up in NC and most of my family still lives there. Hillary won't win NC. The state has trended Republican since 2008.

I think Hillary will win the election it just isn't going to be the cakewalk some on DU predict.

[apcalc]

54. Pay no attention to Quinnipiac....

[TeddyR]

57. Perhaps

But I find it amusing (and a bit perplexing) that whenever a poll shows the preferred candidate ahead Democrats (and Republicans) tout that poll and when one shows the preferred candidate behind that poll is immediately flawed in some respect.

[stonecutter357]

32. seems legit !

[LenaBaby61]

44. Even though...

Hillary had what I'd consider a "mixed week" last week, I'm not putting my trust in a polling outfit which under-samples minorities by 2% and who over-samples white voters by that same 2%. We also KNOW that Joe and his gun mall Mika and Mrs. Greenspan HATE Hillary Clinton so you throw in the biased and hating rhetoric and I'm sure some folks would be spooked by this Q poll and with their Anti-Hillary commentary (Happy that I stopped watch Morning Schmoe years ago). Not saying that we as Dems should become complacent after we see polling showing Hillary leading by a healthy numbers, but some of these polling outfits have too many biases built into them be legitimate for MY taste. No, we have to still believe that we're behind tRump by 10 points in every poll just so we won't get complacent.

Funny thing is that the Q poll would probably have Trump losing California by single digits if they ran one of their uh "polls" out west, and I live here in California and every legitimate polling outfit shows that Hillary has a very healthy leads in the state of California in every poll I've seen over that lying, racist, misogynistic orangutan here in California.

[Her Sister]

48. Awesome ! Thanks California!!!

[NCTraveler]

47. It's not election night.

And we are in a very solid position.

[NYC Liberal]

61. Mitt Romney Is Closing In On Obama In Every Key Swing State

Mitt Romney Is Closing In On Obama In Every Key Swing State

In Virginia, the Republican presidential candidate has now edged out his opponent, 48 percent to 47 percent, reversing Obama's advantage in last week's poll. He also gained seven points among independent voters in the state, and now leads Obama 50 percent to 42 percent with that group.

Another NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows Romney gaining two points in Ohio, narrowing Obama's lead to a 51-45 margin in the key battleground state. When Ohio's early voters are taken out of the poll, Obama's lead shrinks to just two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. And significantly, the poll shows Romney advancing 12 points among independent voters to lead Obama 49 percent to 41 percent/

In Florida, the NBC/WSJ/Marist survey shows the race remains virtually tied, with Obama maintaining a one point lead over Romney.

Three new Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times polls show Romney overtaking Obama in Colorado, and gaining ground in Wisconsin, a left-leaning state that has emerged as a new battleground with the addition of native son Paul Ryan to the Republican ticket.

The poll shows Romney with a one-point edge over Obama in Colorado, 48 percent to 47 percent, reversing the results from last month's poll. In Wisconsin, Obama's advantage has slipped to just three points, down from a 51-45 margin last month.

Quinnipiac poll: Mitt Romney leads in Florida

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads President Obama by six points among registered voters in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac survey, a marked change from two months ago that, the poll suggests, could be linked in part to Obama’s recent statements in support of gay marriage.

Romney, the presumptive nominee, was ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll. Choosing Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as his running mate would give Romney a 49 to 41 percent lead.

A month ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the state; in March Obama led by 7 points. The downward slide, in a critical swing state in what is expected to be an extremely close election, is not good news for the president.

[Hekate]

64. Oh Noes!!!11!!1