2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrand New Monmouth University Poll- Clinton 47% Trump 40% (registered voters) 49-41 (likely voters)
West Long Branch, NJ In a head-to-head contest for president, Hillary Clinton leads Donald
Trump by 7 points among registered voters and by 8 points among likely voters. The Democrats lead
shrinks by a point when potential third party support is taken into account. Both major party nominees
remain unpopular, but more voters say it is important to keep Trump rather than Clinton out of the White
House. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds that attitudes towards terrorism and the
Republican nominees proposed Muslim ban have not changed much since the Orlando tragedy.
Currently, Clinton holds a 7 point lead in a direct match-up against Trump 47% to 40% among
registered voters nationally. Among those who are likely to cast ballots in November, the Democrats
edge expands to 49%41%. Importantly, Clinton holds a 47% to 39% lead in the all-important swing
states ten states where the winning margin in the 2012 election was less than seven points
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/568faad2-81ab-4bd0-b373-8577326e76bd.pdf
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Walk away
(9,494 posts)just as important, she is the candidate to run the "Down Ticket" table for us!!!! I love the Democratic party!
TwilightZone
(25,517 posts)Interesting. It would seem that Johnson's early poll bump (~10% in some polls) is already going anyway, just like 2012.
It's only one poll, of course, but the conventional wisdom around here is that he'd get a lot of I support. I considered it short-lived - guess we'll see.
wcmagumba
(2,893 posts)I just hope the thugs don't try the old switch-a-roo with another candidate at the convention....
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)How the hell does someone like T-Rump ever get more than the 5% lunatic fringe?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)That would be the biggest landslide since 1984.
TwilightZone
(25,517 posts)Some people vote straight ticket, regardless.
Some people vote R because their parents, grandparents, etc. did.
Some people aren't paying much attention yet.
Some people are mostly apolitical and won't decide until the last week, month, etc.
Some people are still in primary mode and may be voting for Trump (in the polls) with that in mind.
After the conventions, I think we'll get a better idea of how many people truly support Trump. I think that's when the average voter starts paying a little more attention, plus it'll remove some of the primary effect.
I agree, though - it's kind of hard to understand his appeal beyond the nutjobs.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
hollysmom
(5,946 posts)Republic and vote out of fear, democrats tend to want reasons to vote for people. but still the fear the republicans are going on now is that Trump is their candidate. I still think the emperor has no clothes and it will be seen at the convention. I don't say they will be doing it legally, but they will do it.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)He seems to have been pretty close to the money.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Probably close to 400 electoral votes. Maybe something like this..