2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat does it mean to 'clinch the nomination' when superdelegates are involved?
Great article on how in every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved
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The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.
Heres how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....
Summary
Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?
First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.
Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.
The major thing Ive learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Harts 36 percenteven then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.
When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there arent a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say youre the nominee.
Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.
The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the presumptive nominee) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had clinched the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, MichiganI hope were still not fighting this?).
This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Gothmog
(144,951 posts)?1464620111
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MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)It's his career he'll be destroying.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Hillary will soon be the DNC presumptive nominee, she will get the needed delegates on June 7, she will have more than the required number of delegates thereby removing all opportunity of Sanders being the nominee.
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)No matter what Sanders says, math counts. Numbers mean something.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)tandem5
(2,072 posts)Reality is off topic.
Gothmog
(144,951 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)doesn't belong in GD-P
gotta say when I heard this....I thought I have heard everything
but wow
still_one
(92,062 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)if you use SDs in the "magic number" a candidate has to reach, then you have to COUNT SDs that have declared toward a candidate's total.
OR
you can choose to NOT use SDs in the magic number and just count pledged delegates.
Those are your two options. Any other way of doing it is dishonest.
And either of the two ways above that you choose to count, Hillary (barring disaster) is going to clinch on June 7.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)I read this earlier today...a very good read. Thanks for bringing it over here.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)a very indepth analyst of all our primary winners and how it played out.. The writer should be applauded
George II
(67,782 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I don't know why people expect this year to be any different. Oh, right, because Clinton's about to be hauled off to prison.