2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGoblinmonger
(22,340 posts)and his projections being wrong AGAIN weren't his fault.
His 15 minutes were up a while ago.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Unless your goal is to piss off Nate
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)I'm talking about the prediction of CA. I don't like meta data analysis people all that much (I'm a teacher and education meta analysis people give me a sad).
yellowcanine
(35,703 posts)Nate has been forthright about the unreliability of primary election predictions compared to general election predictions. And he has always pointed out that his predictions are based on probabilities. After 2012 when he wiped the floor with the wishful thinking Karl Roves etc. he IS the premier election prognosticator and he will remain so at least through this election.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)he wouldn't be giving a 98% Clinton wins projection.
yellowcanine
(35,703 posts)Your claims not withstanding.
thesquanderer
(11,998 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)oasis
(49,434 posts)kind of poll numbers are no surprise.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)On the GOP side, there were some clues in the polling that the possibly of a shit-show at the convention was helping Trump, people on the fence believed he would be the nominee, and just wanted to put it all to bed. It's possible that we could see something similar on our side, voters might believe that the continuing primary is helping Trump.