2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum(Salon)This is one weak nominee:Hillary Clinton's problem isn't Bernie Sanders. It's Hillary Clinton
Last edited Sat May 14, 2016, 12:14 PM - Edit history (2)
Clinton's camp thinks her résumé will be enough to carry her to the White House. No one should be that sureby David Niose
No matter what you think about Hillary Clinton as the presidential primaries wind down, there is one undeniable fact that lingers in the background. Despite having had enormous advantages from the start of the campaignno serious competition from within the party, solid support from national party leaders, a massive war chest and a nationwide grassroots network built over the course of decades in national politicsClinton has struggled to put away a 74-year-old Jewish socialist who has had almost no establishment support.
Say whatever you want about Clintons lengthy résuméand her credentials are indeed impressiveher performance this primary season is hardly indicative of a strong candidate.
(snip)
Unfortunately, Cohen ignores the fact that the overwhelming evidence isnt strong enough to allow Clinton to claim the nomination with pledged delegates alone. Had the evidence been so overwhelming, courting superdelegates would be irrelevant. Because Clinton has been far from dominating in the primaries and caucuses, the true political reality is that she will need superdelegate support to secure the nomination. Fortunately for Clinton, she appears to have the support of an overwhelming majority of superdelegates, but those allegiances can change up until the time of the convention vote, so Sanders is alive as long as the race comes down to a fight over them.
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/14/this_is_one_weak_nominee_hillary_clintons_problem_isnt_bernie_sanders_its_hillary_clinton/
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Years ago I paid them a monthly subscription.
Now that broke blog has become irrelevant.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)show up in droves!
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)The current featured article is anti_trump, and has a picture to match.
https://www.salon.com/
The featured article changes rapidly, here's the direct link.
https://www.salon.com/2016/05/14/donald_trump_american_psycho_muse_how_the_art_of_the_deal_elitist_became_a_poor_mans_patrick_bateman_and_now_hes_a_real_threat/
Lol, says it all.
Perogie
(687 posts)She hasn't put Bernie away. Even though you Hilliary supporters say Bernie would lose to GOP because they would just have to say the word Socialist and he would lose.
Fact is Bernie does better head to head against Trump in every swing state and national poll
If Hilliary is so strong and better she should have had the nomination by now. She should be sweeping the floor in polls against Trump.
She may win the nomination but is a weak candidate with YUGE unfavorables.
Clinton fares only slightly better with a net negative of -21, registering a 31% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating, according to the poll.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. Thats especially the case for candidates who arent even in the race and therefore havent been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls
Perogie
(687 posts)Nate Silver that uses polls to predict outcomes says polls don't matter.
Polling data showed Obama did well against McCain while still in the Primaries and seemed to be a predictor
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
leeroysphitz
(10,462 posts)Ugh
Might as well be a right wing rag..
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Today at least.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Oh yeah that's right since whenever Hillary is running
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)4dsc
(5,787 posts)Excellent article.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)She is a tragically flawed and weak candidate. And still has a ton of baggage she's carrying and has yet to explain If she were better, she wouldn't have these problems. The only reason she has gotten this far is Wall Street and the global Corporate elite
KoKo
(84,711 posts)potisok
(115 posts)Red Oak
(697 posts)Fairgo
(1,571 posts)Privilege masquerades as experience. Brutal experience for the masses, without consequence for the pretender to the throne. She is hollowed out, given form by the accretion of data, technology, and influences - with no guiding spirit. She is a political Golem with clay feet and bloody hands.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)That's got to count or something.
KPN
(15,670 posts)riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)Thanks for posting this.
Mike Nelson
(9,977 posts)...media is promoting Bernie!
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But there is more to just that. As highly unlikely as comney would go on background. You done courts and I do them, perhaps. Perhaps they picked a copy of the Independent (UK) that went there months ago, or the German papers, or El Universal and La Jornada from Mexico City...maybe Foreign Affairs. They all went there months ago, calling her a week candidate.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)seriously, maybe SOME (we'll never get all) of the pundits or maybe true journalists can see what's happening and that she is a very weak candidate. With all of the backing, support, corporate/lobbyist money and now she is STILL losing primaries to Bernie and having to fight for the nomination. They ALL thought that this would be virtually wrapped up in March (Super Tuesday). People here were laughing at Bernie and us thinking it was cute but not any kind of a serious threat. Now they are realizing that if she cant beat Bernie outright, how will she do with Trump?
Mike Nelson
(9,977 posts)...in a year where outsiders are the rage, Hillary Clinton is the only established candidate left standing. Salon is looking at a "small" instead of the "big picture" - forest and trees analogy, I guess...
BootinUp
(47,207 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Most of the Superdelegates were on Clinton's side in 08. Obama wooed many of them away from Clinton.
I remember, at the onset of the 2008 race, one of Hillary's primary arguments was that it didn't matter what happened during the primaries, because Clinton had the Superdelegates in her pocket.
Slowly, th8e migrated to Obama.
So...your analysis about 2008 is incorrect.
BootinUp
(47,207 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Facts are facts--and 2383 is the number of pledged delegates that a candidate needs to earn to secure a win.
Clinton hasn't been able to do that. She won't be able to do that before the convention.
That's not Bernie's problem. Bernie has earned the right to stay in and fight at the convention.
Bernie isn't the candidate with an FBI investigation hanging over his head, nor do 70 percent of voters say they distrust him. That's Clintons baggage. Her baggage could sink us in the GE against Trump. So, we will continue to fight for Bernie--who beats Trump overwhelmingly better than Clinton, in all current polls.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,717 posts)What difference does his religion make?
Margaret Mead once mused if we go back far enough we were all Jewish.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Turin_C3PO
(14,107 posts)Being Jewish isn't merely about practicing Judaism. In fact, many Jews are agnostic or atheist. Being Jewish is having a shared identity of traditions, cultural practices, persecutions, and origin. It's an ethnicity, in other words, similar to Hispanics or Arabs, both groups who have members of different race but shared ethnicity.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,717 posts)My mom was Jewish. I am proud of it. I just don't understand the continual references, especially in the context of the seminal article.
Turin_C3PO
(14,107 posts)I just wanted to explain (in a long winded way lol) that Jewish identity isn't all religion.
Response to CoffeeCat (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I may just start reading them more.
We need journalists and commentators to speak the truth.
And this article is spot on. Clinton hasn't reached 2383 in pledged delegates because she's a weak candidate; and because Bernie's message resonates with so many.
She hasn't earned the win, and she certainly hasn't earned the right to pressure Bernie to quit.
Red Oak
(697 posts)+1
Hillary is a very weak candidate. Great resume, but a horrible candidate.
The GOP is very lucky to have us potentially running such a weak candidate when all they can come up with is Donald Trump.
I wonder, if Hillary loses, you think some heads may roll within the DNC? The current Democratic establishment should not stand if, in all its wisdom of pushing Hillary down our throats, it ultimately allowed Donald Trump to win the Presidency.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)You know it's all about the clicks, right? They gave up on any pretext of intelligent content years ago.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm still furious. We brought this on ourselves.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)If the Clinton camp thought her resume' was enough, she wouldn't need a ground game, local offices and organization, GOTV efforts, etc.
It's this kind of simplistic nonsense that makes Salon unreadable anymore.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)He can't even win the nomination Of his own party!
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)he has done AMAZINGLY well. He started with little name recognition and has gotten his donations from the little people, not super pacs. Plus, he's old and from Vermont and isn't afraid to call for Democratic Socialism and challenge the PTB. Hillary, on the other hand, has been a known quantity for two and a half decades. She has the full power of the corporate-media alliance and Wall St. behind her, and she's still flailing. She is just a terrible, terrible "major" candidate.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Hmm becoming a pattern
leeroysphitz
(10,462 posts)is just stirring the pot. Works for me. Bernie has enough shady crap going on against him and should welcome the leg up.
apnu
(8,759 posts)Her problem isn't scandals, its that she's so well known, most voters made up their minds about her years ago. There are few people left to sway. People who are for Hillary are entrenched, people against her are entrenched. Hillary struggles to convince opposed and undecideds, its her main weakness as a campaigner.
And we're seeing the results with Sanders just as we saw those results with Obama before. Its not Bernie that's the problem, If O'Malley were in Bernie's position, we'd see something like this. If it was any other Democrat, pick any one you want, we'd see this.
pnwmom
(109,020 posts)apnu
(8,759 posts)Just like 2008. I think you missed my point.
pnwmom
(109,020 posts)of minority voters, especially African Americans.
A 538 mathematical model based on demographics alone (without considering polls) , predicted a 15% win in WVA. And that's exactly what Bernie got.
trudyco
(1,258 posts)And maybe they realize putting Joe Biden in there is not a good plan.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)things are starting to come out now that puts cracks in Hillary's dismissal of this. Like when the head of the FBI has to come out and say that they are NOT doing a "security review" they are doing an investigation, it's right there in the name Federal Bureau of INVESTIGATION.
Comey isn't a right wing radio talk show host. Him coming out got a few people's attention.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Progressive dog
(6,922 posts)beaten by a candidate so weak.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)a Primary going on.
OTOH, it must really hurt not to be killing it with an unknown, rumpled department store suit, grumpy dark horse threatening the Coronation.
She's a weak candidate. EOS.
Progressive dog
(6,922 posts)Bernie doesn't have the delegates to win and can't get them.
The weak candidate has almost 300 more delegates than the alternate, who claims money buys elections as he outspends the supposed weak candidate while continuing to lose.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)hasn't sung yet. To coin another trite phrase...It's not over till it's over. Tickets have not been sold to the Coronation Ball.
At least he's not going to the Bush Republicans for an infusion of cash...speaking of spending money. They both go to their constituencies...Bernie's is we Peasants...formerly known as the Middle Class.
pnwmom
(109,020 posts)But, yes, she needs some super delegates to win the majority of pledged and supers COMBINED.
So what?
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)pnwmom
(109,020 posts)win the majority of pledged delegates.
Bernie has only won 45% of pledged delegates so far. He's not suddenly going to win more than 66% of the remaining pledged delegates, which is what he would need.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)posters, and it doesn't always go as planned. Thanks just the same, but I'll wait until it's a done deal.
StayFrosty
(237 posts)Who cannot even beat a "weak" nominee?
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Response to CoffeeCat (Original post)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
pnwmom
(109,020 posts)of the remaining pledged delegates to reach a majority of the pledged, and he need more than 66%.
She is faring very well.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And I think that is what has been missing.
She still has time to display some real authentic leadership, but it would involve taking bold stands on potentially "controversial" issues.
nolabels
(13,133 posts)The inevitable short jaunt into purgatory is here.
I can wait four years more. It seems we already had to wait about forty, a few more to unhinge the scurge and watch it drop to the hell hole it came from is not going to be that big of a thing.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)nolabels
(13,133 posts)The next four years are probably going to be more historic than most can fathom.
The man behind the curtain has nowhere left to hide
Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)she's so weak that she has more votes than Sanders and tRump. She is so weak that after taking more abuse than any politician, even Al Gore and she is still standing. Bernie should be so strong. They haven't laid a glove on him yet.
Yeah she is so weak she took the humiliation of her husband's affair, kept her family together and became a Senator, SOS and now she is going to be president.
This quote from the article is an out right lie and a delusion that Sanders has been able to hypnotize some of his supporters in to believing.
Unfortunately, Cohen ignores the fact that the overwhelming evidence isnt strong enough to allow Clinton to claim the nomination with pledged delegates alone. Had the evidence been so overwhelming, courting superdelegates would be irrelevant. Because Clinton has been far from dominating in the primaries and caucuses, the true political reality is that she will need superdelegate support to secure the nomination.
From my diary of about an hour ago:
Here is the Real Math not the Bernie Math
The democratic candidate will need 2,026 PLEDGED delegates to win the nomination. Right now Hillary has 1,717. (I don't know if that includes yesterday's NV win). So she needs 309 more PLEDGED delegates. She is on target, actually she is 108% of target.
Bernie, on the other hand is only at 92% of target. He is way behind at 1,437 PLEDGED delegates. He still needs 589 PLEDGED delegates to win the nomination.
There are 897 delegates left but there aren't enough Bernie friendly state left for him to pick up those delegates. He is going to lose CA and NJ. He is presently losing OR which surprises me. He is going to lose PR. Look at the States and territories left and tell me which ones he wins by more than 35 percent.
Here is the link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Explain to me how he gets 589 delegates out of those remaining states.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511966322
The guy who wrote that article either knows he is lying, or he is another hypnotized Bernie supporter. I don't believe most bernie people are this delusional and I do believe all of you here can do the math as can my brother. Unfortunately I have a sister who would probably buy right in to the hypnotized group......