Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon--48-33

[riversedge]

Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

by Anna Griffin OPB | May 9, 2016 5:14 p.m. | Updated: May 10, 2016 7:40 p.m. | Portland



http://www.opb.org/images/upload/c_limit,h_1000,q_90,w_640/AP_16128023410959_vieusv.jpg
Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign event in Oakland, California, on May 6, 2016,

Jeff Chiu/AP

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election.

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.
Democratic Presidential Primary Race Poll


There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.

Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent................

[Warren DeMontague]

5. Your landline rings and the caller ID says "DHM research"

Do you answer it? I think a lot of people don't.

[cali]

2. We've seen that before. And Bernie wins. I think he'll beat the polls. Again

[Warren DeMontague]

3. We shall see.

[quaker bill]

4. Perhaps 538 will give her a 92% chance of winning

that always works out well.

[peace13]

6. There comes a point when you have to ask who owns the poll?

Who controls the voting machines and the MSM? And how does it make sense that one person draws tens of thousands and is funded by millions while another barely draws a crowd and has a handful of corporations for funding? These are questions to be answered. Houston we have a problem.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

7. Hillary should get a big boost from California. That will make her look like a winner. I know her

supporters would prefer Bernie drop out in the middle of her months long losing streak. That's 10 of last 15 for Bernie!

[Thinkingabout]

8. Sanders needs a much larger percentage in order to gain the required delegates

And just a win in Oregon will not be enough. A Hillary win in Oregon will put Hillary much closer to the required number.

[Hortensis]

9. "Record 110,000 change voter registrations for Oregon primary"

Of the 111,000 voters who joined the two major parties this year — more than three-quarters of whom were previously nonaffiliated — the biggest chunk, about 84,800, went to Democrats.
...

Additionally, 100,900 new Oregon voters were added to the rolls this year through April — up 42 percent from the same time in 2008, when primary turnout was the highest since then 1970s — and nearly half registered with the two major parties, but mostly Democrats.

Oregon Secretary of State Jeanne Atkins estimates a new "motor voter" law — which automatically signs up drivers to vote when they get a new or renewed license — resulted in half of those new registrations. But she doubts the law had an effect on the party affiliation changes, which means this year's election is drawing attention and interest "like never before," she said.

Allowing voters to register or change registration easily close to an election allows maximum choice while avoiding the corruption of election results so common this year with open primaries.

[bigtree]

10. k&r

[KingFlorez]

11. Oregon is a closed primary

Those are prime territory for Clinton.