2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum116 closed primary delegates up for grabs next week.
After tonight, Hillary has a 276 delegate lead.
After that is 7 delegates in the closed caucus Virgin Islands, and 60 delegates in Puerto Rico's open primary.
In order to get Hillary below 200 by California, Bernie has to win about 71% of the delegates in the next 4 contests.
If he can get Hillary to 200, then all he needs is 447 of the 694 delegates that day to catch her. That's about 64.5%.
msongs
(67,465 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)Gawd.
LuvLoogie
(7,062 posts)Tough road without the right-wing crossover votes.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)LuvLoogie
(7,062 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Plus I am not sure they factored in the 84,000 indys who became Democrats in Oregon.
LuvLoogie
(7,062 posts)But not anywhere near a 65/35 split I would imagine.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)But i still don't rule out a 10 percent win for Sanders there.
Kentucky should be tight.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)He just has to keep her from getting the magic number.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)Super delegates waver and decide to go with the one whose numbers say he will beat Trump.
Easy Peasy.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I will not go along with subverting the will of the people.
Hillary has won more pledge delegates and votes.
To not nominate her means a large amount of her supporters will be angry and sit out the election.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)But are you saying there are Hillary or Bust Democrats? Angry enough to sit out the election?
My my.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Hillary is ahead by votes and delegates. And if the supers ignore that there will be a lot of pissed of Hillary supporters.
I am just being honest with you.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)What are they gonna do about it? I thought the mantra was unity. Or is it only unity for Hillary?
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)Sanders hasn't been picking up super delegates the further he falls behind HRC.
She is only 143 delegates away from the nomination now, and there are 1061 delegates left in play. She only needs 13.5% of them to get the nomination.
Bernie needs to win 86.5% of all remaining delegates to keep her from clinching the nomination.
Ain't gonna happen.
And there is really zero chance the supers are going to switch to Bernie at all. I doubt he would even get half of them if he narrowly won the pledged delegate vote, which isn't going to happen - and there is a snowballs chance in hell that he could get the vast majority of them to switch if he is trailing the pledged delegates.
It's over.
LuvLoogie
(7,062 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Good luck, Bernie.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)We will win!
Go Hillary!