2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMSNBC: 40% of Bernie voters would prefer to vote for TRUMP in the fall -- against Bernie.
Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 09:18 PM - Edit history (3)
But they didn't need to vote for Trump now, since he's got the nomination sewed up, so they decided to get a head start voting against Hillary.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/
But MSNBC's Steve Kornacki tweeted a more remarkable data point: Almost 4 in 10 Sanders voters plan to support Trump over Sanders.
There are usually some people in exit poll data who say they'd vote against their preferred candidate in the general election. After all, the general election offers different choices than the primary, and if you're a conservative Democrat, you may think that Sanders is preferable to Clinton or vice versa, but also that a Republican would be preferable to both.
In Pennsylvania, exit polls reported by CNN indicated that 2 percent of Clinton and 5 percent of Sanders voters would vote against those candidates if they won the nomination. So it's really the scale that's surprising here, not the existence of the phenomenon.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)hollysmom
(5,946 posts)so clever to drive democrats out of the party. Previous people actually tried to line up votes not get rid of them.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)hollysmom
(5,946 posts)ThirdWayToTheHighway
(72 posts)seeing the party die? I think that YOU are the imposter. This attitude is childish and exactly what drives so many new voters away from the system.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)hollysmom
(5,946 posts)if they won't vote for Hillary why not talk them into sitting it out?
If you don't talk to people you lose them,
things change all the time, it is months until November. One Isis attack can make things unpredictable. I really don't see the point in writing off a lot of people when you should be working on them no matter how frustrating. It is like losing your passion and giving up before the vote is in. Why would someone who was a Clinton supporter do that?
reformist2
(9,841 posts)salinsky
(1,065 posts)... they're pissed off white dudes.
They were never going to vote for Hillary.
They probably wish they could vote for Rand Paul.
hollysmom
(5,946 posts)I can tell you that what you said is not true, I knew plenty of people who were going to vote for Hillary until she gave that pro israel speech or said we should not reach so high, we must be pragmatic. Now I am pragmatic, but I never walked into a negotiation planning on losing.
Now the people who will never vote for Hillary is my hispanic nephew in law - I don't understand completely any of his reasoning, but then again I rarely do understand a lot of people thinking odd things.
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)I can get why Bernie supporters are opposed to voting for Clinton in the GE. I think they are misguided, but I get it. Still welcome.
Any Bernie supporter (or anyone period) who will go so far as to vote for Trump in the GE over either of our candidates.. Fuck em.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)and for TRUMP in the general demonstrate how Hillary will lose?
It just shows how weak Bernie's' support is. 40% of his voters really prefer Trump -- to BERNIE!
There are usually some people in exit poll data who say they'd vote against their preferred candidate in the general election. After all, the general election offers different choices than the primary, and if you're a conservative Democrat, you may think that Sanders is preferable to Clinton or vice versa, but also that a Republican would be preferable to both.
In Pennsylvania, exit polls reported by CNN indicated that 2 percent of Clinton and 5 percent of Sanders voters would vote against those candidates if they won the nomination. So it's really the scale that's surprising here, not the existence of the phenomenon.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/
kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)doc03
(35,442 posts)WTF do people expect.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)40% of Bernie voters say they prefer TRUMP. I think they just voted to make the weaker Dem candidate the nominee.
CanonRay
(14,141 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Sick.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)There folks out there like that. It's not open primary but this was decided long ago
floriduck
(2,262 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Primary election type
See also: Primary election
West Virginia utilizes a hybrid primary system. Parties decide who may vote. Both the Democratic and Republican parties allow unaffiliated voters to vote in their primaries.[10]
Note: Presidential primary and caucus types can differ. See this article for further details about 2016 presidential primaries and caucuses.
https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_West_Virginia
By the way, that be 19 percent of the total electorate.
So you know what this says? CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATS did not vote for HRC, but will not vote for her in NOVEMBER either. Oh and the independents do not like her that much either
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)amazing how you folks can miss the obvious when the data is presented
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Jeane was never right about anything either.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)40 percent- 19 percent = 21 percent. By the way, we are assuming every fucking independent voter actually voted. So that means truly at at least 25 percent of democrats did not vote for HRC, and will not vote for HRC either.
But I will offer you this.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a1/Evening,_Nile_River,_Uganda.jpg
That is a photo of the upper Nile by the way
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)He will build his wall.
He will send his Stasi into the streets to round up immigrants.
The Dem party fractures and collapses.
The banks fail.
The world turns against us.
Trumpvilles fill public parks with the newly homeless and jobless upper middle class as the markets crash around the world.
Grim poetry and the abacus make a comeback.
Does this cover most of your dystopian fantasy?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)CONSERVADEMS WILL VOTE FOR TRUMP, just like they did for GW Bush and Reagan.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)That more or less covered it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)the Reagan administration was peaches and cream, and so were the Bush years. Keep laughing, it is funny shit
Here, let me help ya
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)He is a freight train. Is there any way the Dem nominee, whoever that is, can stop him?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but I can say that these stats reveal CONSERVADEMS are in TRUMP'S bandwagon.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)What about those that would suffer under a Trump administration?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)so there is that.
As I said, I will enjoy CONSERVADEMS doing this.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Won't someone think of the children?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)This must be performance art. You guys kept telling indies and LW Democrats to pound sand. well then.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And who I vote for, and I will, even if I know elections in the US are pretend elections, is my business, not yours.
But this is the bed you made.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that is clear... but so far the campaign has been into burning the ground behind her.
party realignments are a whatever, but that ship has sailed with a lot of people. You are trying to pretend to care, but you really don't... so drop the false act
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)A bad act, but an act nonetheless
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)We've got this.
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)Yes Sanders. No Hillary. It's not an indication of any primary manipulation.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)pnwmom
(109,024 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)Otherwise, a number is worthless.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and I also met the older lady who will vote for Hillary in June, to stop that commie, and for Trump to stop her in November. CNN found her clone in WV this morning. I was dying.
basselope
(2,565 posts)This is establishment vs anti-establishment.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)There are usually some people in exit poll data who say they'd vote against their preferred candidate in the general election. After all, the general election offers different choices than the primary, and if you're a conservative Democrat, you may think that Sanders is preferable to Clinton or vice versa, but also that a Republican would be preferable to both.
In Pennsylvania, exit polls reported by CNN indicated that 2 percent of Clinton and 5 percent of Sanders voters would vote against those candidates if they won the nomination. So it's really the scale that's surprising here, not the existence of the phenomenon.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/
basselope
(2,565 posts)Since many of the democrats have been voting republican for years. 62% of Democrats went for Romney. So only 40% of Sanders voters is a nice improvement.
Response to pnwmom (Original post)
Go Vols This message was self-deleted by its author.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)This is just the latest BS meme being introduced to justify a push in the Democratic Party for closed primaries.
JI7
(89,287 posts)West virginia primary.
LenaBaby61
(6,979 posts)That ConservaDems won't vote for Hillary Clinton in the GE, then how are they so sure that they would vote for Bernie in the GE if he were the nominee?
That's why I NEVER, EVER bought into the Electoral College maps, especially this early, showing Hillary Clinton with a landslide win over Trump. Not to say she/nor Bernie can't beat Trump, but this election will be closer than most are thinking even though the Democrat ticket offers two superior candidates in either Hillary or Bernie--who would and could run this country better than Donald Trump could EVER think of running it.
mvd
(65,185 posts)Absolutely will not vote for Trump. If fact I will vote for Hillary even if I'd like to write in Bernie or Jill Stein. I remember what happened in the 90s. Clinton's record since then is better (on the left side of a too much to the right Democratic party), but she is still not trusted by this progressive. And she is too hawkish. The WV thing does not diminish Bernie's win.
Agree.
I'm a Hillary supporter, and I also have friends who are as well and some of them STILL say they wouldn't vote for Bernie or not vote at all (Some live in swing states) because he's an Independent encroaching into the Democratic party. Last time I checked, Bernie Sanders caucused with and agreed with Dems a MAJORITY of the time--in the high 90% range. And yes, there are a few things I disagree with Bernie Sanders on, but there's no WAY I'd sit it out if Hillary didn't get the nomination I could and would NEVER vote for Donald Trump, or allow my vote at least to be canceled out by a Trump vote. Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a coma could govern far better than Trump even if he had an allegedly good day, which I have yet to see, and won't EVER see.
I never get into arguments with anyone--not even close friends--and I'll remain a Hillary supporter because I feel she has a better path to the nomination, plus I agree with most of her agenda. But I'll be damned if I don't vote for Bernie with Trump sitting over there on the other side with his huge ego nowhere near in check and not knowing how to govern anymore than my Yorkie Marcio. END OF STORY.
mvd
(65,185 posts)Sounds like we disagree on some of the issues, but we do need to defeat Trump in the fall. Such phony populism coming from a pampered billionaire. Plus the guy has fascist tendencies. This Bernie supporter knows true populism, and it is not Trump's.
Demsrule86
(68,788 posts)More than a few judging by the right-wing sources they use.
Demsrule86
(68,788 posts)trying to screw with our elections. The tip off was Wisconsin when the rightie judge was elected. So Bernie...you have been catfished.
Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)Most Bernie voters will support Hillary in the GE. In 2008, the networks and pundits were complaining how the PUMA Hillary supporters wouldn't vote for Obama... But we know how that ended up.
Don't believe the hype.
Merryland
(1,134 posts)has nothing to do with her lack of popularity, the mistrust she engenders, and the general air of superiority she exudes?
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)What does Hillary have to do with that?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/
But MSNBC's Steve Kornacki tweeted a more remarkable data point: Almost 4 in 10 Sanders voters plan to support Trump over Sanders.
There are usually some people in exit poll data who say they'd vote against their preferred candidate in the general election. After all, the general election offers different choices than the primary, and if you're a conservative Democrat, you may think that Sanders is preferable to Clinton or vice versa, but also that a Republican would be preferable to both.
In Pennsylvania, exit polls reported by CNN indicated that 2 percent of Clinton and 5 percent of Sanders voters would vote against those candidates if they won the nomination. So it's really the scale that's surprising here, not the existence of the phenomenon.
Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)And the best way to keep the ad money rolling in is to make BS claims like the above.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Well then it MUST be true!
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)polly7
(20,582 posts)Why do you think this would be?
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)Why do you think that is?
It's probably because the Rethugs, who are having no important vote of their own today, decided to vote for the Dem candidate that would make it easier for Trump in the general.
polly7
(20,582 posts)pnwmom
(109,024 posts)vote in the Dem primary -- except in a way they thought would enhance Trump's chances?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I know this is hard to get, but there are actual DEMOCRATS who will vote for Trump. ABC is at play here...for the record, this does not shock me in the least.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)you could loosely make that argument in California
So yes, the majority of that large minority of voters, 4 out of ten, are Dems who voted for Sanders will vote for Trump. Most folks who are actually understanding of what this means, and I am sure that includes the campaign, are going DANGER, WILL ROBINSON, DANGER. I won't bother to explain why.
TwilightZone
(25,517 posts)They're not all Dems. That's the point.
40% of those who voted for Sanders said they won't vote for him in November. Not all of the 40% are Dems. Not sure why you're so insistent that they are other than that you're quite clearly looking for any reason to trash Democrats.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)like Reagan dems and Bush dems
pampango
(24,692 posts)If they say are voting for Bernie now but they would vote for Trump over both Bernie and Hillary then they are not Democrats in any sense of the word and should not be voting in our primary
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and independents, unlike CA, do not make the majority of the voters either.
hollowdweller
(4,229 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)McCain, Obama, and Clinton were all "establishment" candidates.
About 30% of Dems were turned off by Clinton then. Probably about the same, or more, now.
Add in people -- say 10% -- who are voting for Sanders as the "anti-establishment" candidate (whose votes would transfer to Trump over "establishment" Clinton) and the number is not the least bit surprising.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)pnwmom
(109,024 posts)Hillary supporters are far more committed to Hillary.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and please, don't. At least myself, I need the entertainment.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)in the general says anything good about Bernie's vote in WV.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)The current movement started in 1999 in Seattle, it has been building for many years, across different regions of the country. Many of those voters are not going to have Sanders on the ballot in November, you won, They will not vote for the establishment candidate period. And Trump is not an establishment candidate either.
And add that comment about putting miners out of work (she told the truth) and then the 190 flip... of I misspoke. Usually people who tell the truth, and explain it, get more respect in the world of politics.
Please do not even try to get it. At this point it is actually entertaining to see the pretzel logic applied to the fact that DEMOCRATS will not vote for HRC. I mean the indies, and greens sort of make sense, but DEMOCRATS... tonight has been all kinds of entertainment in the land of cognitive dissonance. I mean it. And these are CONSERVADEMS to boot, her people. I mean the LW stupid liberals, we get it, but these are not Greens, or Liberal democrats.
And at this point I give up on you guys getting it, so I will get amusement out of it. My other choice would be crying.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)preferring Trump over Hillary help in the GE?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)decline to state are allowed, and they are not most of that 40 percent. And even if all of them voted for Sanders today, and I mean every one each of them... it would not be, Given how many people likely showed up, there is a good chunk of dems who will not vote for her. That is a problem. One that I am enjoying the pretzel logic of trying to explain this...
Autumn
(45,120 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)the electorate for both parties would make a few people blush.
Coal country is also among the poorest regions in the country.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)coal.
She was for it, he was against it, if you remember Obama's environmental message in 2008.
Sanders wants to do something about it. she has a plan on her site to bring green energy plants, which is quite honestly anathema in the area, but she also promised to close the plants. For once she spoke the truth. That is why WV senators can never be counted in any climate change legislation. Politics is local and she hit a very raw nerve.
It is also the birth place of the modern union movement, but it is as anti union as you can get.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Long but good
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/history_of_labor_unions.html
And here is the corner stone
http://wvaflcio.org/right-to-work.html
Though they were hardly the first to get that lovely legislation
https://nrtwc.org/facts-issues/state-right-to-work-timeline-2016/
The Wagner and Taft Hartley Acts are also critical for this. First is 1936, the second is 1947... did I mention they also have racial roots?
Autumn
(45,120 posts)TwilightZone
(25,517 posts)because Hillary is so disliked?
That's some logic.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)Seems to me a bunch of democrats and Independents in WV won't vote for Hill if shes the nominee. I think it must be they dislike her because I see no proof that those are staunch Bernie supporters in WV. Might just be they just voted for the lesser of two evils in the primary to keep Hillary out of the GE. Whoever took the poll should have asked more questions, they got a number with nothing behind it.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)all the primaries he probably doesn't win anywhere and Hillary wins the nomination in a landslide.
Some off them are probably sending him money too to make sure he keeps causing Hillary trouble.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)serious...
And transparent as hell.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that is what that polling revealed by the way... and I would worry if I were the Clinton campaign, pass that to your boss, of what that implies for battle grounds states such as PA, MI, and OH... did I mention WI?
Though I think that if elections had consistent standards and the party was truly neutral. Still, that was a cute talking point.
Android3.14
(5,402 posts)Whether that little teased bit of data is accurate or not, if you haven't figured it out yet that this is a populist race then you're out of touch. If it comes down to Trump or Hillary, the independents are going to Trump.
Stamping your foot in indignation means nothing.
You think her numbers will improve? Have they ever improved by that kind of margin?
The smart future is with Sanders. If we let that go, then we get Trump. Ms. Clinton doesn't even matter.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)This has nothing to do with Hillary -- unless it's because they think they're helping Trump by helping the weaker Dem to win.
Android3.14
(5,402 posts)That, my naive friend, is not how the data presents. You seem like a fairly nice person. I wish you would smell the coffee and realize how hard the oligarchy is pushing against Sanders while the public is pulling for him.
kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts). . . could they?
Number23
(24,544 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)Trump over Clinton in the GE, but this looks like a piece of propaganda to me designed to make people think Sanders will face a massive defection, if he is the nominee, to the Trump campaign. That is bull.
MSNBC and The Washington Post are in the tank for Hillary, so it is not surprising propaganda of this sort is being floated by them.
Sam
TwilightZone
(25,517 posts)It's not a defection if they never intended to vote for Sanders in the first place (edit: in the general election).
That's the point here - they are Trump voters who took advantage of a hybrid open primary to vote for Sanders. They were never going to vote for him in November.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)23 percent are decline to state voters, even if every one of them showed up for your mythical Op Chaos that is still 2 out of 4 of ten voters. You honestly think all 23 percent showed up? REALLY?
So lets be more realistic, and I will concede that MAYBE 1 of those ten voters is really that nefarious. That still leaves three out of ten. The majority who are registered as DEMOCRATS. Yes, she has a problem with both Independents and DEMOCRATS
(For the record the 2012 number is 17.8 percent were registered as independent voters)
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)and they made up a large proportion of the Bernie/Trump voters.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)not even strong minority in the state. You could almost get away with that argument in CA... where yes, indeed we decline to state voters are the majority of registered voters, and since the Dems have the modified open primary, but the Rs are a closed one, well you could make the argument that Indies are a strong group, if not a majority. But in this case they are BEST CASE and that be pushing it, a quarter of registered state voters.
And you welcome by the way. If Sanders wins CA I expect that to be used as an excuse.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)in WV... as I said, MATH. If those voters reach 1 in 10, I will be surprised. really.
By the way. CNN did find that 10 percent of HILLARY supporters are voting for Trump in November, and anecdotally I was dying in the morning when they interviewed a clone of a lady I found here in San Diego. Same exact reasons, she will vote for HRC (or voted today) to stop the commie. My local example is in her late 70s by the way. But will vote for Trump in November because there is no way she will ever vote for HRC in the general. She cannot stand the Clintons, 'nuff said.
What drove me to ask her was the two bumper stickers on the old El Camino. a Trump for President and a Clinton for President bumper stickers. I went this has to be a his and her car. Nope. So this morning when they interviewed this old lady who said the same, I was indeed dying. It was quite funny actually.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but you are ignoring both the evidence at present, and yes HISTORY. Reagan Democrats and Bush Democrats are real.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)good nose
tblue
(16,350 posts)% doesn't matter. It will go solidly red as will the South.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)1) It was actually about 35.5%, not 40%.
2) Almost 15% of Hillary's vote came from Republicans in the race. They were messing with both sides.
3) In spite of the Trump support in the race, Bernie still wins among the people who voted today 55-33 against Trump compared to 45-35 for Hillary. That's a full 8 points better than Hillary does in the GE among today's voters.
4) Bernie won the Independent vote over Hillary 58-22. Goes back to electability in GE.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)are they on to come up with such a statement?
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Is that not democratic?
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)They are apparently hedging their bets by trying to have two populist candidates in the GE.
Obviously, one is crazy and one is a Socialist, and in the fall they say they prefer crazy over Socialist. Whatever.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Open primaries only purpose is to make it possible for republicans to weaken the democratic front runner whoever he or she may be.
WV is the latest example of this fact.