Based on demographics rather than polls, Nate Silver says Bernie could win tonight by 15 points.

[pnwmom]

But because he is so far behind, he needs to win by more than 45 points, and get 21 out of 29 pledged delegates, to get back on track. (He said 45 before Indiana, but the number is actually higher now, because he didn't meet the 28 point win he needed in Indiana.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/today-is-clintons-chance-to-end-the-groundhog-day-campaign/

[Cali_Democrat]

1. True

So when Bernie "won" last week in Indiana, he actually lost ground when it comes to the delegate math.

[pnwmom]

4. Every time he doesn't meet or exceed the target he gets further behind and there are fewer

delegates left to divide.

[morningfog]

5. Even still, Hillary will not clinch a majority of pledged delegates until June 7 at the earliest.

[politicaljunkie41910]

14. Hillary already has a majority of the pledged delegates.

Approximately a 300 lead of the majority of pledged delegates. If your talking about hitting the 2383 delegates to win the nomination outright, we can wait until June 7th. We're impatient but not going to get crazy or anything about it since we know it's going to happen.

[morningfog]

15. Wrong. A majority of the PDs is 2,026.

She won't hit it I'll June 7.

[morningfog]

2. Bottom line: Hillary will NOT win enough PDs to secure a majority of PDs.

[pnwmom]

7. No, a majority of pledged delegates is 2026 and that's very probable for Hillary.

She's already gotten 1704, so that leaves a difference of only 322.

[asuhornets]

10. That's why the superdelegates are there....n/t

[firebrand80]

11. correction: she won't win enough PDs to secure a majority of ALL DELEGATES

but that doesn't matter, because she has more than enough SDs to put her over to top

not only that, any formulation you can think of as the "fair" way to allocate SDs still puts her over the top

[Adrahil]

16. Of, she will win a majority of PDs. Almost 100% probable.

Barring something drastic, of course.

[morningfog]

18. I should clarify, I meant tonight.

She will hit 2,026 on June 7 unless something earth shattering occurs.

[synergie]

20. Actually, she will. She's winning MORE of the PDs than Bernie is, so if your goal

is that someone needs to get to 2026, then Bernie has no chance.

Bottom line, she's winning the majority (that means MORE OF) the PDs and the popular vote than Bernie is.

He has no argument for demanding a coronation or an anointment against the will of the voters.

[morningfog]

23. Yes. I meant tonight results will not get her to the total majority of pledged delegates, 2,026

and it won't.

She will not get there until JUne 7, with CA's results.

Bernie does not have no chance, he has next to no chance. Until he is mathematically eliminated he has some chance, albeit, nearly impossible.

[Exilednight]

3. as much as I love Bernie, Nate has been on a bad streak for predictions

[closeupready]

6. He's trying to salvage his credibility but it's too late, IMO.

[pnwmom]

12. He made the demographic model a couple months ago, so this isn't some last minute thing. n/t

[LonePirate]

8. There are so few delegates available today that it makes no difference.

Even a 25 point win only nets Bernie 5-8 delegates which does not alter the dynamics of the race at all.

[Adrahil]

17. That's more or less ture. But every delegate he does not get today, he needs to get....

Somehwere else. By the time we get to california, he'll need to win by 50 points.

[synergie]

21. Pretty much.

[Trust Buster]

9. Hillary won the last few states against Obama after Obama pivoted to the general.

It really doesn't matter in the final analysis.

[synergie]

22. And even if the argument is number of states won, she's leading on that score as well.

[beachbumbob]

13. Not enough...anything less that 75% is a loss for Bernie...

The math still does not work

[Demsrule86]

19. He is not winning by enough to matter

The zombie primary rolls on.

[synergie]

24. Even if he chose to stay in for the sake of the issues, he'd not have lost the respect

of so many, as he continues to help Trump along by saying dumb things that Donald echoes. Either he's delusional, or he's working actively against having a Democrat in the WH and more seats in Congress.

[Demsrule86]

25. Well he is not a Democrat

And I have heard he does not take a loss well...maybe he is out for revenge.

[libodem]

26. That's character assassination

To make Bernie out to be vengeful. That is not HIS character.
He doesn't have a black book of enemies to remember to pay back for nonsupport.

Bernie is a good and decent man. He is authentic.