2016 Postmortem
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(67,496 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)then the GE and will be our next president.
NewImproved Deal
(534 posts)And, I predict that the Clinton Apologists will smugly, snarkily dismiss it because WV is "too White" to really matter...
casperthegm
(643 posts)Tomorrow we will see the posts about how the math doesn't add up, drop out Bernie, etc.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)notadmblnd
(23,720 posts)She offended West virginians. They're not going to forgive and forget.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)appalachiablue
(41,199 posts)notadmblnd
(23,720 posts)She really pissed them off with her coal comments.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)only thing that might help her is the "Clinton brand" possibly having some sway
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)Fewer delegates left to snag, and a higher percentage required.
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)in delegates will be reduced by about 3%.
And, the Bern's uphill slog will increase from 66% required to win, to something like 67%
in subsequent primaries.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)So, to reach my 5-delegate hypothesis, the Bern would have to win by around 18-19%, is that it?
Even in white WV, I don't see that happening.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)so a 60-40 win would mean he wins the delegates 17-12, a 5 delegate gain
Hell Hath No Fury
(16,327 posts)Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)They've been dissed and discounted so much, it would be poetic justice if they turned out strong enough for Sanders to kick the momentum up a notch.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Each candidate wins their favorable states. Demographics control.
What did "7 out of the last 8" do for Sanders in NY, PA, MD? Nothing.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)If people in the next race(s) to vote are moved by something, which can be anything, that is momentum. If this race affects those in Kentucky at all, as it well could, that is momentum. I doubt that Oregon needs any. And in like manner for the other races next.
The past isn't the future and an election is not math, otherwise we wouldn't need to go through this expensive exercise of having elections at all.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)that momentum has played a role in this race?
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)There's a book called The Black Swan. It's all about things happening that aren't predictable.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)So, that's about what I predict. 58-42. Way short of the 66-34 he needs.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)EDIT - How awesome was John fucking Denver?