Clinton Has the Map on Her Side, But History Working Against Her

[KoKo]

The Enthusiasm for Bernie and his policies is strong, and he is in it through the Convention, which gives him an advantage that Hillary as an "incumbent" doesn't have. Anyway, an interesting view from Matt Bai.

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Clinton has the map on her side, but history working against her
Matt Bai
National Political Columnist
May 5, 2016

But if history is any guide, Clinton comes to the campaign with a structural disadvantage, too, and one that shouldn’t be overlooked. It may explain why she can’t seem to put Bernie Sanders away — and why the outcome in November is hardly assured.

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The next-in-line always has more trouble than he should unifying the party, because the fissures that were suppressed through eight years of a presidency — in the cause of staving off the opposition — rise to the surface. The end of every eight-year presidency is something like the fall of Tito, with disparate factions and pent-up emotions finally unleashed.

Clinton — runner-up in 2008, loyal soldier thereafter — is the prototypical next-in-line. Thanks to a couple of dreadful midterm election cycles, she’s had to contend only with a 74-year-old protest candidate who just recently joined the party, and even then she hasn’t been able to excite enough of her own party’s base to lock down the nomination by May.

She’s had to lash herself tightly to the president while at the same time trying to co-opt the ideological fury among the party’s dissatisfied factions. She will emerge from this process with her agenda opaque, her convictions hedged.

Maybe Gore and McCain, having gone through the exact same thing, have some sort of support group she can visit.

Unlike both of those guys, of course, Clinton seems to have gotten astoundingly lucky in her opposition. It’s true: Trump’s appalling rhetoric will make for some whopping TV ads. And yes, if his numbers hold, especially among women, Trump’s next reality-show gig might be called “The Biggest Loser of All Time.”

But here’s the thing about Trump: He’s run the flat-out most offensive, least substantive and crassest campaign in memory, and national polls show him trailing Clinton by 10 points, with six months yet to go.

Think about that. In presidential politics, 10 points can fall away faster than Carly Fiorina on a riser.

And while voters’ impressions at this point in a campaign are normally hard to change, what we don’t know about Trump — the big question, to my mind — is whether the larger electorate will ultimately judge him by the standards of a politician or, like primary voters, as a celebrity.

Politicians aren’t allowed to simply shrug off their records and respawn entirely. The voters, finely attuned to any sign of inauthenticity, won’t have it.

But entertainers reinvent and redeem themselves all the time; it’s what gossipy magazines exist for. And Trump is closer to inhabiting this realm than any candidate we’ve ever seen.

Don’t expect the Trump who takes the stage in Cleveland to be remotely like the Trump who bragged about his genitalia in a debate. And don’t assume, just because his bigotry and base antics are a matter of record, that the rules of traditional politics will apply.

Next-in-lines have been known (at least once) to win, and assuming she can nail down the nomination, Clinton is as clear a favorite as we’ve seen in a while. But Clinton shouldn’t delude herself into thinking she’s headed for a layup, and neither should anyone else.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-has-the-map-on-1421857612800054.html

[grasswire]

1. I disagree that Hillary was a "loyal soldier" after 2008

She demonstrated her nature by running a rogue and risky foreign policy hidden from President Obama's oversight and threatening his administration/legacy at the time, and now as well. She thought so little of him or so highly of herself that she indulged herself as she wished -- indulged in activity that may very well be deemed criminal soon.

[floriduck]

3. ^That^

[KoKo]

4. She wasn't a "Happy Warrior" for Obama...but, she did end up as SOS

with Deals Made... And, what a mistake that was.

So I see what you are saying.

[Faux pas]

2. K N R-ed