My new Election prediction

[lancer78]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4OY2

All the blue states are where Obama won by at least 5 percent.

[StayFrosty]

1. Trump isn't winning Virginia

Not Ohio either.

This is how the electoral map will look like in November.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/azDPY

[Recursion]

3. I notice you flipped VT

Cute

[lancer78]

4. In the greatest electoral

demographic change by race in the history of America, the Coalition of the Ascendant prepares to rescue America. And to America's rescue, the Coalition of the Ascendant marches.

In 2008, the Coalition of the Ascendant knocked quietly on the door and helped propel Obama to the Oval office.

In 2012, the Coalition of the Ascendant pounded on the door and destroyed Willard's "White Horse" prophecy.

In 2016, the Coalition of the Ascendant will BLOW the door wide open, and will come to dominate American presidential politics.

After 2016, if the minority vote goes 80-20 for the Democrat, there will never be a Republican President ever again until the Republican party cuts off the malignant tumor known as the bigoted, rural white voter.

[bluegopher]

26. I like yours better

🙂

[Recursion]

2. Trump wins VA when pigs fly

Hell, his nomination puts NC back in play for us. There's just not enough of Southside left for the GOP in statewide elections.

[lancer78]

5. Georgia might be in play

All it would of taken in 2012 is for 150,000 voters to switch parties out of 3,000,000.

[w4rma]

7. Georgia is not in play. The voting system is unreliable, for starters. (nt)

[CobaltBlue]

14. w4rma—Here is a link…

@ http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/05/08/wsb-tv-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-in-a-statistical-tie-in-georgia/

[Demsrule86]

12. And Georgia as well

Obama came close in 12 without even campaigning...Trump will bring out extra votes...the fear factor...fear of electing a monster to the presidency...who has his hands on the nuclear buttons.

[lancer78]

6. What I like is how Florida is irrelevant

in a lot of these maps, no matter how Florida goes, it doesn't change the outcome of the election. Tim Russert would have been disappointed and hopefully Chuck Toad can shut up about his home state.

[CobaltBlue]

15. lancer78—Your map is wrong.

If the 2012/2016 national shift is toward the Republicans (which, by recent reports, indicates the opposite), then it would be strong enough to deliver a Republican pickup of the presidency to Donald Trump.

In 2012, President Obama was re-elected with winning the U.S. Popular Vote by nearly +04 percentage points. If the nation is shifting beyond that, the map moves and delivers a GOP pickup.

Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), and Colorado (09 electoral votes)—those are the most influential states. They are bellwether states. And they are on course to carry for presidential winners for quite some time.

Whichever party one predicts to win Election 2016—color Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado the same.

[lancer78]

17. They may be predictors

but they are also not needed by the Dem candidate.

[lancer78]

18. Also

Ohio is becoming older and whiter, it does not represent the Coalition of the Ascendant.

[OilemFirchen]

22. I'd love to see a cite for that.

TIA.

[MFM008]

8. We get Obamas 2012 map

plus Arizona, Missouri,
MAYBE Georgia

Possibly Montana, Mormons Hate Trump so Utah will be interesting
NC a possibility--remote but still.
I say Ass kissing McCain still bitter from 2008 is History.
We get the senate
MAYBE the house.
We all are happy and have champagne.

[CobaltBlue]

16. MFM008—Add Indiana!

The margins between Indiana and Missouri were eerily close to each other in both 2008 and 2012.

They officially carried differently in 2008—Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of Indiana by +1.03 while Missouri held on for losing Republican John McCain by +0.13. But, that was only a +1.16 spread. In 2012, with both states in losing Republican Mitt Romney's column, their spread was even tighter.

Point is: Both states are likely to carry the same again in 2016—and they will probably be quite close to each other.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Is this a worst case scenario for Clinton?

Any unbiased analysis would indicate OH, VA, NC, and FL lean Clinton.

That's what I believe the Sabato map, the Cook map, and aggregate polling indicate.

[Fast Walker 52]

10. yeah, I would say so

so she still wins, which is great

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Any gambler who was forced to take a parlay...

Any gambler who was forced to take a parlay would bet it is more likely she wins all those four states than loses all four of them.

[lancer78]

13. This is an absolute

worst case for the democratic nominee. I do believe that our nominee will definitely pick up Virginia.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

19. There's going to be a lot of fingernail repair necessary after the election.

[lancer78]

23. The blue states

won't be close though. Race will be called at 11pm EST.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men, Gang aft agley,

But Mousie, thou are no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men,
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!

Robert Burns

Hillary has an aptitude for making "mistakes". There's still about 5 months until the election and a lot of room for mistakes.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Oh Jesus I hope it isn't that close.

[bigwillq]

21. oooh, I love a close one.

Makes for an exciting night!