2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThis may be the election that redefines the parties. The Democrats may evolve into the party of the
status quo (such defensive efforts to conserve the status quo against change is called "conservatism" in political science class).
The Republicans may be evolving into the party that tells those who feel left out of the status quo economy "we are going to radically change this broken system."
If we cannot stop Hillary in the primary, we are looking at the first election in my lifetime where
* the Democrat is the candidate using Citizens United to raise Super PAC funds from millionaires and billionaires while the Republican campaigns against a corrupt pay-to-play campaign finance system
* the Democrat is the candidate encouraging international trade agreements which have the effect of promoting the loss of American union jobs to foreign countries while the Republican campaigns on bringing those union jobs back to America
* the Democrat is the candidate who saber rattles about American boots on the ground in foreign conflicts while the Republican campaigns on the theme that the countries in the region should take the lead role and we should limit our in-forum involvement to bombing rather than American boots on the ground
* the Democrat is the candidate is defending the tax policy status quo while proposing minuscule tweaks at the edges of that policy while the Republican is arguing that the billionaires and the large corporations must pay a greater share of taxes
* the Democrat is the candidate saying "let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater" about Wall Street reforms while the Republican campaigns against corruption in the financial sector
Here's an exercise: Draw a horizontal line, and put the initials "FDR" at the left end of the line and write "George HW Bush" at the right end of the line. Now, write "Hillary" at some point on this line -- closer to FDR if you believe she will govern more like FDR or closer to Bush if you think she will govern more like him.
If that exercise doesn't make you sad, then you don't understand why so many progressives and liberals know Hillary would be a historically weak general election candidate incapable of uniting the party.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Yesterday they can prove Bernie is winning the primaries and today this.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Who do you think shes in court with? Citizens United.
2-Trump is against trade agreements?
3-The Republican is running on war crimes and carpet bombing.
4-Democratic candidate will raise taxes on the rich and lower middle class taxes.
5-The Democratic candidate is all about Wall Street reform and her policy has earned praise from liberal economists.
I hope I never need an attorney in Texas.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)while she reaps the benefits of it--as millions of dollars flow into her campaign from millionaires, billionaires and powerful corporate interests.
She's not fighting Citizens United. She's embracing it.
Every few days she hops off the campaign trail to grab another installment. Usually from Wall Street.
They pay her handsomely for her cut-throat approach to their greed and criminality--which is a bit of finger wagging while she whines, Come on guys...cut it out!"
"Here's another 5 million Hillary. Is that enough to keep Glass Steagall off the table?"
amborin
(16,631 posts)lobbied and voted for them; she personally profited from millions in Wall St speaking fees; she has voted with republicans and against Democrats on many crucial occasions; she refuses to reinstate Glass-Steagall, her campaign relies on Super Pacs; she has used State Dept power to reward her cronies and lobbyists; she has promoted massive arms sales to egregious human rights violators who donated to the Clinton Foundation; she has an anti-environmental record, etc.....
?itok=1mUqDEIZ
ladjf
(17,320 posts)Supreme Court, has powerfully condemned the law and said that the only litmus test of the SC judge is the agreement to
overrule Citizens United.
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)There are plenty of really bad Supreme Ct. decisions out there - Dred Scott, Bush v. Gore, etc.
hellofromreddit
(1,182 posts)Hillary is the ONLY candidate actively fighting Citizens United.
Sanders is running a highly competitive campaign without accepting superPAC money against a candidate who is. He is demonstrating through action that the claims that CU is necessary for "free speech" are bullshit, and he is the candidate who has made campaign finance an issue that is getting national attention.
revbones
(3,660 posts)1. You said she's in court with Citizens United. Please provide any link substantiating that.
2. Trump has consistently come out against free trade policies in his speeches. I'm not supporting him, but given Hillary's track record of supporting free trade policies but saying she's against some, why would she be any better than Trump or any republican on this issue?
3. Do you think given her performance on Libya or when she was told of the policy of "don't do stupid shit" by Obama, or when he had Kerry come in to "clean up her mess", that she would be less of a warmonger?
4. What has she ever said that would indicate she would do this? She won't even firmly come out for raising the carried interest tax
5. What reform is she for? She's only repeated that she'd use Dodd-Frank to break up banks if they posed a systemic risk. The problem is that Dodd-Frank's remedies are after the fact.
So please provide further details on your post - that is, if it's ok for 'some person on the internet' to ask you about your comments.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)I knew a guy who was convinced he was Napoleon once.
Reality is illusory to some.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)"Bush and Gore are the same" they said.
We saw how that turned out.
And that's not an indictment of naderites, but anyone who thought that in 2000 was proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, to be a fool of the highest order.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)Shame on any democrat to perpetuate it in 2016
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)I've seen some of it posted here. Again: fools, every last one of them. Silly, stupid, wrong, ignorant fools.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Who was in charge of the Fed under Clinton and won praise from the Democratic Establishment?
Some ultra conservative Ayn Rand admirer and Milton Friedman acolyte whose first name is Alan.
Who ran the Treasury and drove economic policy? A bunch of uber-rich guys who were on sabbatical from some corrupt firms with names like Goldman Sachs.
Who praised and pushed through "free trade" agreements effusively, while factories were closing and jobs being shipped overseas? Some President named Bill.
Etc.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)the status quo establishment candidate and Trump is the anti-establishment change candidate.
The are not even remotely the same.
If we don't stop Hillary now, we are going to see that the differences between Hillary and Trump could redefine both parties.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)When it comes to war--Hillary is furthering the neocon agenda that Bush pushed.
Hillary hand picked Robert Kagan to be one of her foreign-policy advisers while she was Secretary of State. Of course you know that he founded the neocon movement and engineered the Iraq War plan.
Hillary surrounds herself with the same cast of characters who were at the epicenter of Bush's foreign policy.
If you read, "Rebuilding America's Defenses" (the neocon war blueprints) you will find that they name four countries that they seek to dominate and control: Iraq, Iran, Syria and Libya.
Bush gave them Iraq. Hillary spearheaded efforts in Libya that turned that country into a failed state. She vociferously advocated for arming the Syrian rebels and creating a no-fly zone over Syria. Obama held the line on a full-on war in Syria while Hillary championed the idea. What else was she to do with Kagan sitting by her side--"advising" her?
Reality escapes anyone who doesn't see this. I don't see how any of you can defend this. But God knows you will work like little elves to do so.
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)how Trump will campaign on these themes (which is exactly what I said). Trump will campaign on themes that will appeal to a great many disaffected voters -- including disaffected Democrats -- and Hillary is not appealing to these voters.
I'm voting for the Democratic nominee and I think Trump is horrible but you need to understand that there are a great many voters, including a great many Democrats, who do not share my loyalty to the Democratic Party.
emulatorloo
(44,268 posts)And that includes the same moderate Republicans that came out to make sure Sarah Palin never came any where near the White House.
You know as well that HRC is a moderate Democrat, not some evil SheDevil that is "just the same as Bush". Yes we all love Bernie. But Fuck that Naderite CounterPunch Hypernbolic Bullshit.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)and she's a hell of a lot closer to Bush I (GHWBush) than she is to FDR.
We agree that Hillary is a moderate Democrat, but she is also the voice and face of the status quo and the establishment.
I think President Trump would be the worst thing to happen to America since VP Dick Cheney, but he will campaign promising change at a time when many people in both parties crave change.
emulatorloo
(44,268 posts)mountain grammy
(26,666 posts)and largely ignored by my party. A lot of it is the success of propaganda against her, but much is Hillary herself and her supporters. When Hillary supporters ridicule and belittle young people for supporting Bernie, we have a problem. This happened at my caucus and I see it here constantly. I talked to a few of these kids and told them how important it is to support the Democratic candidate and was assured they would vote and support Democrats down ticket, but not sure how they'll vote at the top if Bernie isn't the nominee.
Something has got to change in the Democratic party establishment.. it's not working.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)sort of horrible type of change Trump will promise.
mountain grammy
(26,666 posts)Scuba
(53,475 posts)... not that they're the same, or that Trump can be trusted, or that he will pursue leftist policies.
It's that Trump can and will run to the left of Hillary.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Hillary.
mountain grammy
(26,666 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)They have their heads in the sand.
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Gotta love that Camp Weathervane substance...
mythology
(9,527 posts)Of course if you actually cared about substance, you'd be pointing out the flaws in the original post such as Clinton not running against Citizens United. It's telling that you didn't.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)If so, I have not given up on it.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Oh well. I'll take snacks and a book.
emulatorloo
(44,268 posts)First things first, both HRC and Bernie are against Citizens United.
Either of them will do their damnedest when they are elected.
ELECTED is key,and it will be hard for both with the billions of dollars of raw sewage dumped on them by Rove Co etc.
I'm a bit disappointed in this flight of fancy of yours. I know you are capable of better. I hate to use a cheap legal shot, but we are not some dumb jury in one of your courtrooms.
As you know Citizens United is the current playing field.
As you also know, HRC is not the first democrat to have a superpac.
As you know as an attorney you do not bring a knife to a gun fight
None of our Dems, and that includes Bernie sanders should surrender and lie down to the Koch Bros/Adelesons/Roves
The Republican party as the "the party that tells those who feel left out of the status quo economy "we are going to radically change this broken system."
Seriously DUDE? Trump is a fascist, Cruz is a theocrat.
Honestly you know I love your original posts. You are going to lose a lot of credibility with this one. I think you should self-delete.
alrighty then.
All in it together
(275 posts)And Hillary seems to be playing the old game of keeping the rich and megacoporations in charge of the government, while the rest of us get crumbs, or trickle down which we know doesn't work.
She is against Citizen's United movie about her but is good at playing their PAC money game.
Millinials see how it is for themselves and want change. Baby boomers know we used to have a strong middle class, inexpensive education and real opportunity and want that back for the rest of us.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)I'm just saying that Trump will campaign on a populist platform that will appeal to the disaffected from both parties.
I'm not a Bernie-of-Bust voter, but I do think Trump represents the possibility of redefining party lines in the way Reagan did, and it may have longer term effects beyond 2016.
emulatorloo
(44,268 posts)Reagan message was optimistic and he could inspire people with his rhetoric in to feel positive and unified (no matter that the rhetoric was empty).
Trump is negative, belittling, depressing, and hamhanded. That attracts some factions but does not play with the majority of people
Take care of yourself and have a good one
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)candidates by chance.
Trump will try to turn the general election into a referendum on populism versus the establishment status quo.
emulatorloo
(44,268 posts)I think living in Texas may have warped your perspective on mainstream voters. I say that as a native Texas who gets home an awful lot.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)change and Trump giving a clear promise of change.
I have a 100% completely negative view of Trump; I am not persuaded by anything he says, but there are 16 failed Republican candidates who underestimated Trump's appeal to the angry electorate demanding change.
I don't want to risk a scenario where we take a chance in the general election with another establishment candidate who has learned nothing about the risk of underestimating Trump from watching the Republican primary process unfurl.
So Far From Heaven
(354 posts)to claim to fight against something while doing/using it?
How can you trust anyone that manipulative?
Just asking.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)K&R
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)It will be especially inspiring if Castro is her VP pick.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]
Other than being a Latino "rockstar" what does he bring to the table that addresses the points brought up in the OP?
randome
(34,845 posts)But he's young and what little we've seen of him, he projects a more vigorous, perhaps more relevant outlook. That's not much to go on, but I think first and foremost we need to push the previous generation of politicians aside and let a younger generation take over.
That's at least a start to changing things.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)pampango
(24,692 posts)We shall see if Trump does not leap at the chance to use the wealth of the republican party and its sponsors in the GE. I know which side my bet is on.
Trump wants to go back to a unilateral trade policy reminiscent of Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover, not the multilateral trade policy adopted by FDR. Trump does not want to "bring union jobs back". He wants to make right-to-work nationwide and see unions disappear.
I don't see Trump as anything but a typical republican who bleats about how Democrats have weakened the military and he will make it strong again. If you understand from him that he will be timid about using our military, you have heard a different message than I.
Every analysis I have read shows that his tax cuts will be the usual "trickle-down", cut taxes for the rich (including himself) that we always get from republicans. And this is before he starts cozying up to the republican establishment after he wraps up the nomination and does not need the base anymore.
I find it hard to believe that anyone here really expects Donald to "crack down on corruption in the financial sector".
I agree that he will conduct a 'populist' campaign that will be unlike anything we have seen from a republican before. But let's not confuse his RW populism based on fear, hate and us-vs-them rhetoric with real populism, like Bernie's, that does none of those things.
Will Trump be a effective and dangerous campaigner though he would be a horrible president? You better believe he will be. We had better prepare for it.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)on any issue whatsoever.
Trump would be a catastrophe on all levels.
I am talking about what Trump's campaign themes will be and why they will appeal to many people who know the status quo is NOT working for them and they believe that Trump will bring change (I also believe Trump would bring change, but I think all of that change would be bad).
pampango
(24,692 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)populist who is all over the map with some far RW issues and some vaguely LW issues and some issue that defy simple characterization.
pampango
(24,692 posts)If not, RW populists would not be 'populists' at all. They know that in order to win elections they have to at least pretend to be support "some vaguely LW issues". Otherwise, they would be perceived as typical right wingers which would limit their appeal to their conservative base.
Also, it is instructive how specific RW populists can be about RW issues - like how long, high, beautiful and huuuuge the border wall will be, who will pay for it and exactly what per cent of a tariff he will unilaterally apply to countries and companies that displease him.
When it comes to some LW issues, he can sound supportive but is much more "vague" about the details than he is about border walls and tariffs.
All that said, he is an excellent campaigner - most demagogues are - and will be a tough opponent which I think is your point.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Trump is going to pivot to adopt populist positions that defy RW and LW characterizations, and he is being deliberately vague in the Republican primary to leave himself room for such general election pivoting on issues that are anathema to the Republican establishment (and he will also continue to adopt populist positions that remain anathema to the Democratic establishment).
Hillary is also planning on pivoting. She wants Sanders to concede so she can stop campaigning to the Democratic base in the primary and start running to the middle for the general election.
If Hillary is the nominee, her construct will not work because she's planning to pivot on the wrong axis (she plans to pivot left to right when the real fight is going to be populist/change versus establishment/status quo). She's playing chess while Trump is playing checkers. I'm not sure who would win that contest but I am sure that anyone who thinks it would be an easy fight is wrong
pampango
(24,692 posts)None us know why he is being deliberately vague on LW populist issues. You seem to be giving him the benefit of the doubt in assuming that his vagueness means he will pivot to left "on issues that are anathema to the Republican establishment". Like what?
The other possibility is that his vagueness on LW issues is because he is merely throwing some rhetoric our way to see how many of us will be won over to his brand of populism without him offering the specifics that he gives to the right.
Frankly, I don't see him abandoning the racism and xenophobia that has brought him this far.
For him to go "soft" on Mexicans, Muslims, Chinese, etc. after his convention would make him a "typical politician" in the eyes of his base unless they thought he was just playing the left with vague talk in order to win enough of our votes. And if he does not abandon racism and xenophobia he cannot seriously appeal to many liberals.
Agreed. Trump is a skilled demagogue who will play on and exacerbate voters' fears and hatreds during the GE. Defeating him will not be easy.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Trump is a free agent. He is not constrained by republican dogma. He can run as a real populist--and therefore take whatever populist themes he desires. He can say whatever he wants and a step by step attempt at refutation will not be effective. He can claim rightly that he has taken on and defeated the republican establishment, so he is not going to be their tool. That is a powerful position to be in.
He'll moderate his more extreme primary positions, he can say he evolved on them.
He will be very difficult for a status quo candidate like Hillary to beat.
pampango
(24,692 posts)precisely because people will believe him. RW demagogues are really good at reducing complicated national and global problems to simple, if inaccurate, terms that are easy to understand, if wrong. Trump is and will be a master at this. He will be very difficult for either of our candidates to defeat.
I agree he COULD do that but he is not Bernie Sanders. I think he will choose to run as a RW populist rather than a 'real' populist like Bernie. Trump will base his campaign on hate and fear - aimed at Mexicans, Muslims, Chinese, etc. He will not run the kind of campaign that Bernie would run of bringing people together and cooperating with the rest of the world.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie has zero chance of winning the nomination. Its time to attack the GOP not Democrats.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)I'm just laying out how Trump is going to be campaigning (dishonestly - I'm not talking about how he would govern, I'm talking about how he will campaign) on issue that have appeal across traditional party lines and how this may have party redefining affects as we move bast 2016.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)For Democrats to be Democrats.
OP is spot-on.
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)promises that will reposition the parties in ways they have not been previously positioned.
Trump is breaking the left-right distinction between the parties and reframing the issues as a populism contest.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)It is knowing the enemy.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)And then sit back and watch the fun begin.
The MSM doesn't even mention it now, because they plan to beat Hillary over the head in the fall with it, 24/7.
Then Benito Trump or Dr. Seuss Cruz will mention it in every speech, every interview, every time you see them on tv.
Vinca
(50,326 posts)It could be a real mess even if her assistants face charges. Her supporters have their eyes closed, their hands over their ears and are singing "la, la, la, la, la" at the top of their lungs.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Democrats give her past a pass at their peril.
XRubicon
(2,213 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)In the two Establishment parties the easiest to plot the course of that evolution is to follow the money.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)so I am fine with it. Party realignment, that's it
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and the Ds would take their place, many people here harassed and the rest. Now it is like... well, history has echoes and the Ds have done this 5 previous times. The Ds are just as divided as the Rs, it is just less obvious, so there is also a chance that both parties will go away. And that could be mayhem
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)* the Democrat is the candidate is defending the tax policy status quo while proposing minuscule tweaks at the edges of that policy while the Republican is arguing that the billionaires and the large corporations must pay a greater share of taxes
No, Trump is proposing massively larger tax cuts for the rich and super rich than any other candidate on either side; conversely, Clinton is advocating raising those taxes. You're not just not in the right ball park, you're somewhere out in the middle of the pacific ocean.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)straight into an inferno. He's a performance artist playing a psychopath. She's a war waiting for the first opportunity. This is shaping up to be the worst election in history.