2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’
What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party's nominee. It's a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he's so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deusemerges from the machina, he will not.
But that's me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson -- a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of "Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and Ill Prove It to You" -- is not considering the race from the same space.
Abramson's "proof" consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It's just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that's why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.
The only problem with this is all of the parts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/
ladjf
(17,320 posts)an enormous amount of energy trying to discourage the supporters of the competition. I find it annoying.
I would rather they just say why they support their favorite and what they don't like about yours.
But, "you are just in lala land if you think that your candidate has a chance of winning".
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)It's not intended to discourage, but to point out what the other article got wrong.
ladjf
(17,320 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Sometimes the truth is discouraging. Deal with it.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)But was indeed posted here.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)anything is possible.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Cha
(297,723 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The stench of major denial is all over DU today, thats for sure.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)It's actually trying to "unskew" election results.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)BainsBane
(53,072 posts)Goldman Sachs is an invest bank. Banks count money. Counting is math; therefore math is a corporatist ruse. Get your facts straight.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Simple counting shows Hillary has a long way to go before she clears the delegate threshold needed. THAT is a fact.
BainsBane
(53,072 posts)Earned delegates
HRC 1223
BS 920
sum +303 for HRC
Total Delegates
HRC 1690
BS 946
+744 for HRC
2383 needed for nomination
653 for HRC to win nomination. 1437 for BS to win nomination
2129 remaining delegates. HRC needs 30.6% of the remaining delegates for nomination. BS needs 67.4%
It should be obvious which of those two equate to "a long way to go."
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Since you seem to have a problem with the concept: a probability is not a fact.
BainsBane
(53,072 posts)and you treat me as though I'm stupid for not buying into your faith based worldview. You don't even want to deal with the numbers or evidence of any kind. That's your problem. You are entitled to believe anything you want, but you do not have a right to insist enforce that disassociation from reality and evidence on the rest of us.
I responded to a point that "Hillary has a long way to go" to win the nomination. The numbers show that "long way" is far greater for Sanders than Clinton. That is an empirically verified fact. No amounts of insults on your part will change that. Perhaps if Bernie supporters devoted a fraction of the time to getting out the vote that they do to making rude remarks online, Sanders might be in a stronger position?
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)And likely won't.
However Hillary has not crossed the delegate threshold needed to win and likely won't for some time yet.
So the race will continue. As it should.
oasis
(49,410 posts)She's campaigning against Trump.
Ghost in the Machine
(14,912 posts)The Utah caucuses were packed tonight, and an overwhelming majority of caucus-goers picked Bernie Sanders.
With 241 of 2,235 precincts reporting, the Associated Press projects Bernie Sanders as the winner of the Democratic caucus in one of the most conservative state in the country by a 75-24 margin over Hillary Clinton. {emphasis mine}
http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-utah/
The Media Blackout of Sanders is starting to get colored in some as time goes by. We'll see...
Peace,
Ghost
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)dchill
(38,546 posts)with one's head in the sand?
ladjf
(17,320 posts)PATRICK
(12,228 posts)doesn't impress me as the simpler math. Add up all the powerful(no not all of them are evil) advantages and resources, experience and committments and minus the challenge. The challenge being, the set negatives, frontrunner centrism and donor influence and the lack of positives(wide enthusiasm, progressive, traditional Dem platform). By traditional, I mean FDR pointing forward with his new bill of rights. Call me old fashioned, but I guess my age class was supposed to be in the bag for safety, centrism and gratitude to the Clintons.
The ambivalence is trying to set in who is better or worse or who will do better or worse in the election and governance. The divide is there, but the really unfortunate thing is relying on a default election such as LBJ had over Goldwater, something Hillary knows about. The math does not support anything less. When they were nervous about Rubio they went after him. That loser and terrible politician.
I don't like the math of negativity which is what barely sustains the frontrunner against a lone, unfunded, media suppressed and rather polite genuine idealist. That can transform almost in minutes to a loss in the fall.