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WOW !!! - Ladies And Gentlemen... Bill Curry - Salon
Can Hillary stay in the race? If she loses Ohio and Missouri, Clinton’s case becomes very, very tenuousImagine if somone wins the last 10 primaries, leads every general election poll, then gets denied by superdelegates
Bill Curry - Salon
Tuesday, Mar 15, 2016 09:25 AM PDT
Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP)
Attention all political pundits. Today affords you a shot at redemption: a chance to turn over a new leaf and even do some real reporting. For months you treated the Democratic race as a foregone conclusion. For weeks you said nearly the same of the Republican race. You were wrong not just in your prophecies but in doing what you do. When you tell any candidate you know he can’t win because you’ve “done the math,” you tell every voter her vote doesn’t count. As both parties teeter in their different ways on the edge of tragic choices, you do democracy itself a great disservice.
No one knows how these races will end. Even polls that persist in underestimating Bernie Sanders show Missouri and Illinois near dead heats and Sanders closing fast in Ohio. Should he win the Land of Lincoln and the Show Me State and exceed expectations in Ohio, it’ll be his second stunning upset in eight days. It turns out Hillary’s one stronghold — other than K Street — is the Old Confederacy. The last two of its 11 states also vote today. Ahead are contests in 24 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. With the possible exception of Puerto Rico, she doesn’t hold a commanding lead in a single one. Many resemble states Bernie won going away.
Democracy isn’t algebra. Elections aren’t mere algorithms. A poll tells you more about the person who writes its questions than the few hundred who answer them or the millions who don’t. Polls have short shelf lives because people change their minds; gradually about issues, overnight about other people. Pollsters do message, not policy. They know we’re angry but haven’t a clue why. Here’s a hint: One party denies the reality of climate change, the futility of modern warfare and the humanity of millions of our fellow citizens. Neither will admit that our democracy is dying and taking our middle class with it. We need help making this choice, not predictions as to the choice we’re about to make.
While we’re on the subject of life’s mutability, a word about party rules: The first thing to know about them is that like Captain Jack Sparrow’s pirate’s code, they’re “more like what you’d call guidelines than actual rules.” This is perfectly legal and sometimes even fair. All conventions are gaveled open by temporary chairs under temporary rules because no convention can bind the next one any more than one Congress can bind the next.
So no current poll can tell you how many delegates each candidate will have and no current rule can tell you for sure what those delegates can or will do. Delegates elected in primaries or caucuses will surely vote as pledged. If one candidate has pledged delegates comprising more than 50 percent of all delegates, that should end the discussion and the process. If not, all bets are off.
No one knows how these races will end. Even polls that persist in underestimating Bernie Sanders show Missouri and Illinois near dead heats and Sanders closing fast in Ohio. Should he win the Land of Lincoln and the Show Me State and exceed expectations in Ohio, it’ll be his second stunning upset in eight days. It turns out Hillary’s one stronghold — other than K Street — is the Old Confederacy. The last two of its 11 states also vote today. Ahead are contests in 24 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. With the possible exception of Puerto Rico, she doesn’t hold a commanding lead in a single one. Many resemble states Bernie won going away.
Democracy isn’t algebra. Elections aren’t mere algorithms. A poll tells you more about the person who writes its questions than the few hundred who answer them or the millions who don’t. Polls have short shelf lives because people change their minds; gradually about issues, overnight about other people. Pollsters do message, not policy. They know we’re angry but haven’t a clue why. Here’s a hint: One party denies the reality of climate change, the futility of modern warfare and the humanity of millions of our fellow citizens. Neither will admit that our democracy is dying and taking our middle class with it. We need help making this choice, not predictions as to the choice we’re about to make.
While we’re on the subject of life’s mutability, a word about party rules: The first thing to know about them is that like Captain Jack Sparrow’s pirate’s code, they’re “more like what you’d call guidelines than actual rules.” This is perfectly legal and sometimes even fair. All conventions are gaveled open by temporary chairs under temporary rules because no convention can bind the next one any more than one Congress can bind the next.
So no current poll can tell you how many delegates each candidate will have and no current rule can tell you for sure what those delegates can or will do. Delegates elected in primaries or caucuses will surely vote as pledged. If one candidate has pledged delegates comprising more than 50 percent of all delegates, that should end the discussion and the process. If not, all bets are off.
More: http://www.salon.com/2016/03/15/can_hillary_stay_in_the_race_if_she_loses_ohio_and_missouri_clintons_case_becomes_very_very_tenuous/
33 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Thank you, WillyT.
Bill Curry was White House counselor to President Clinton and a two-time Democratic nominee for governor of Connecticut. He is at work on a book on President Obama and the politics of populism.
From article at OP.
