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Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:08 PM

If I Were Hillary...

Background, where I stand on the Primaries in general

If I were Hillary Clinton, I'd be looking at the large numbers of Democrats and others who are deeply engaged with Bernie Sanders as a candidate, and the substantial numbers who are committing donations to the Sanders campaign.

And I would be considering the possible outcomes for the primary, and how they will play out.

Senator Sanders' past actions show that he's a person of integrity as well as vision. And even if I didn't completely agree with that vision (having a vision of my own, after all,) I would look at the many places where we DO have overlap.

There are a number of such places and they are important, both to my (Hillary's) campaign and to a broad segment of voters.

I would anticipate winning the primary (because, after all, that's what candidates do) and I would be thinking, "in the general election, the passion, engagement, and support of those Sanders voters could be a real asset."

And I would certainly acknowledge that, based on the current levels of passion connected to those areas where I (Hillary) and Senator Sanders differ, in vision, experience, and approach, there's a realistic likelihood that some of Senator Sanders' supporters will never, ever, no matter what, put the same level of passion and engagement into my campaign. Indeed, some might not vote Democratic at all, and it wouldn't necessarily be a good use of time, resources, and political capital to attempt to change their minds.

On the other hand, once the disappointment over a Sanders loss/Hillary win primary outcome works its way through the feelings and hearts of those passionate Sanders supporters, it might be possible to engage some of them in my general campaign.

How, then, could what I (Hillary) do now, maximize my chances of both picking up broad support among disappointed Sanders supporters, and making enough of a case to them to engage them with a level of real commitment to a Democratic win in November?

Right now, many of the decisions my (Hillary's) campaign is making, much of the language and the focus, seems to be explicitly targeted to MINIMIZING those chances, alienating Sanders supporters by trash-talking the supporters themselves, rather than addressing the differences between candidates.

The only real explanation for such a short-sighted strategy would be if I thought that a) the possibility of a Sanders primary win is much greater than DNC punditry and mainstream polls assert; or b) the Sanders support phenomenon is not as deep and powerful and passionate a sea change in Democratic politics as they assert. In the case of b), then, I (Hillary) would sail on to victory in the general election because as "the only choice" many or most Sanders supporters would "hold their noses."

That scenario (it doesn't matter if we trash-talk the whole Sanders phenomenon because the ostensibly 'democratic' Business As Usual of elections in our increasingly oligarchic body politic will play out as it always does) is first of all, profoundly disrespectful, and secondly, profoundly short-sighted.

Why play that game? Granted, I (Hillary) would be unlikely to win the hard core of Sanders-or-no-one supporters, no matter what. But knowing Bernie himself, and the power of the passion he evokes, and the strength of popular support behind him, why not put some serious thought and effort into keeping bridges intact and doors open? The Sanders constituency is more substantial, more passionate, more engaged than any leftward-aligned anti-establishment populist movement since 1972.

Hard choices, but important. The lessons of history are before us.

Of course, Senator Sanders still might win the primary...

thoughtfully,
Bright

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Response to TygrBright (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:11 PM

1. It seems like she's doing just fine. She's going to states where a swath of Bernie Sanders are

 

She doesn't seem to be taking any voters for granted.

And she also appears to be trying to speak on the issues that Sanders supporters feel are important.

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Response to TygrBright (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:11 PM

2. DU isnt the real world...

 

In the real world they would both get a huge majority of each others supporters, according to polling. Be skeptical of anyone saying different.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:25 PM

5. Some Sanders supporters may vote for Clinton, but make no mistake

there are many that won't. I would say 25 percent of his supporters will not vote for Hillary. That is a huge amount of support to be losing from your own party. Combine that with an embarrassingly high "untrustworthy" numbers as well as low support from Independents and little-to-no crossover appeal from Republicans.

Many have been saying this all along. How in the world does she cobble together a victory? You must have healthy support from Independents to win a GE. And that's assuming that you've got an energized base of support in your own party voting for you. A substantial chunk of the Dem party will not vote for her.

Then, we've got a rabidly energized Republican electorate that has been breaking turnout records across the country.

It's a recipe for disaster for the Democrats.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:30 PM

6. 25% of his only 38% of support.

 

Ok.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #6)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:40 PM

10. Half of the Democratic party

are ardent Bernie Sanders supporters. The progressive base of the Democratic Party wants Sanders.

I'd say, when all is said and done 20-25 percent of that 50 percent of the Democratic Party won't vote for Clinton.

No way for her to win with those numbers--given all of the other electoral challenges she faces.



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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #10)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:43 PM

11. No, Bernies not polling at 50%.

 

He's polling in the mid 30s. 25% of that is about 8%.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #11)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:06 PM

16. The polls are bouncing around quite a bit

You are definitely quoting the polls that show the lowest support for Sanders.

Plenty of national polls that show them each hovering in the high 40's.

And if Clinton continues to rack up delegates and pull away from Sanders--clearly her numbers will rise. That doesn't mean that Bernie's supporters are gone forever. We're still here. It just means that she is seen as the likely nominee.

And true, if she becomes the likely nominee, more Dems will be solidly in her corner. More middle of the roaders will move to her corner.

However, around half of his supporters who are Democrats will not support her.

You'll never get that portion of his supporters who want real change, less corporatism, no neocon tendencies in their candidate and someone who is trustworthy.

I conceded that it may not be 25 percent of the party, but it is a good chunk. Ten percent of the party faithful sitting out would be devastating (and nothing to crow about). I think it's much higher than 10 percent, but we shall see.

It's obvious that your ilk wants to think that this number is extremely low. You are in the process of burning bridges all over the place. That's fine. And clearly noted.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:54 PM

14. My guess is the majority of Democrats will vote for Hillary

if she's the nominee, but she won't take all the independents, and there are a lot of them.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:44 PM

12. Except for you and what you represent, right?

Then it is real!

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Response to TygrBright (Original post)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:16 PM

3. Sanders Would Make A Great Vice President & Unify The Party!

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Response to Corey_Baker08 (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:20 PM

4. Sorry, but I disagree.

They are way too different to work well together.

She's solidly in the 1% and Bernie is equally solidly in the 99%. There is no way they could work well together.

IF she gets the nomination, she will need a much more progressive and younger running mate.

Just my take on it!

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:30 PM

7. Actually, Bernie's assets put him in the top 3.7% of the country.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:37 PM

9. And that is still not the top 1%

or the top .01%.

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Response to Corey_Baker08 (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:33 PM

8. No way that would happen

I'd be surprised if he even endorsed her.

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Response to KingFlorez (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:54 PM

13. well at least he can quit "being" a democrat after a one year try and 72 yrs of not lol nt

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Response to Corey_Baker08 (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:58 PM

15. I do not see her choosing him as a running mate.

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