2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMore poll trutherism
More poll trutherism
Conservatives debate: Is the liberal media purposely or simply accidentally making Romney look like he's losing?
BY ALEX PAREENE
Im not sure itll amount to anything, but today seems to have marked the birth of the sophisticated version of the elaborate liberal media polling conspiracy fantasy.
The silly version (lets call it poll trutherism, which I think Dave Weigel sorta coined) broke out earlier this week, once Rick Perry discovered the genius that is UnSkewedPolls.com. And the silly version is a good enough piece of propaganda for the hackier elements of the conservative media sphere, from the Washington Times to TownHall to WND to Fox & Friends.
In this version, the liberal media purposefully skews the polls, making the (secretly winning) Romney campaign appear to be unable to gain ground on Obama, in order to demoralize Republicans, thus ensuring Obamas reelection. (Even Jim Geraghty is highlighting some conspiratorial claims from a Republican pollster involving Democrats somehow lobbying major pollsters to undersample Republicans.)
At the Weekly Standard, Jay Cost weighs in with a much more rational take on the perhaps all the polls are for some reason who can say skewed to benefit Obama narrative. He thinks many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats standing right now, but he is careful not to ascribe conspiratorial causes to this belief. He says its just that Romney shouldnt be polling so far behind Obama when independents are evenly split everywhere.
Read More:
http://www.salon.com/2012/09/26/more_poll_trutherism/
theKed
(1,235 posts)If they truly believe Romney is up +5 or +10 or whatever batshit number they pull out of their asses today, maybe less will be motivated to actually go and vote. Let them have their lunatic "skewed polls" fantasy.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Read from the bottom up.
Another fun tidbit: in states that actually have voters register by party, there are a total of 41.5M Democrats and 29.8M Republicans.
Polls that exclude cellphones are worse for Obama, and it's hard to defend them as being better than polls that include cellphones
Most polls actually showing a fairly big likely voter vs. registered split, about 2.5 points favoring GOP. Larger than historical average.
The polls could definitely be overestimating Democratic turnout. However, just as likely, they could be underestimating it.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight