2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA New Guide to the Factions of Democratic and Republican Herds --Cool Videos & Stats -NYT
(The videos at the site are in ShockWave...so I couldn't post here, but they are both worth a watch. Very cute and informative and explains the mood of the US...why we fight amongst ourseves so much)
A New Guide to the Democratic and Republican Herds (Voters)
A New Guide to the Democratic Herd
Blue Collar
Bloc
Southern and
Rural Democrats
Staunch Liberals
Bootstrap Optimists
Younger
Independents
Since Barack Obamas 2008 victory, Democrats have watched with dismay as the president has been vilified by opponents and as Washington, already polarized, has become downright toxic. (Republicans have their own ideas about when the polarization began.)
What had been a complicated patchwork of Democratic voting blocs before Obama has coalesced into fewer groups that are more unified. Theyre not exactly moving in lock step they never do but their allegiance to the president has softened the usual party divisions.
His embrace of gay marriage is instructive: it was a galvanizing moment for supporters, and it didnt seem to hurt him with the large blocs of Democrats who are socially conservative.
The 2012 Democratic herd is charted here along a left-to-right continuum of party loyalty, based chiefly on the Pew Research Centers Political Typology as well as the views of political experts. The size of the donkey icons approximates the relative strength of each bloc.
Pews tracking of party affiliation shows that a growing number of Americans identify as independent. With party loyalists on both sides largely decided, the race will move at the margins, said Tad Devine, a longtime Democratic consultant. Thats why the campaigns are focused on identity groups: women, Latinos, older voters. Peeling off even slivers of these could well determine who wins the election.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/09/02/sunday-review/a-new-guide-to-the-democratic-herd.html?ref=sunday-review
-----------------------
A New Guide to the Republican Herd
The Disaffected
Christian
Conservatives
Libertarians
Tea Party Voters
Main Street Voters
Six years ago, as the Republican Party was headed for a historic electoral drubbing, Republican voters belonged to a number of distinct, boisterous camps: several strains of social conservatives; broad anti-regulation and anti-tax blocs; hawks supporting the Afghan and Iraq wars; moderates who shunned the culture wars.
That motley crowd has morphed into a more unified and even more boisterous one. All are motivated foremost by disgust with the weak economy and an intense dislike of the man presiding over it, President Obama.
There are still distinct camps, though fewer. They are pictured here along a right-to-left continuum of party loyalty, based on the views of several political experts and strategists. The size of the elephant icons approximates the relative strength of each bloc.
The biggest change, of course, is the arrival of the Tea Party. Although incited by alarm over debt, health care reform and bailouts, the Tea Party is largely in league with a newly monolithic bloc of social conservatives. Both groups share the same broad agenda.
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, after their coronation in Tampa, Fla., hope to have the blocs shown here firmly onboard. Winning over voters outside the tent is their toughest task for the next two months.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/26/sunday-review/a-new-guide-to-the-republican-herd.html?ref=sunday-review